The Route
This opening stage really is the product of good route design, in my honest opinion of course. This is the kind of stage that we can expect a lot from, in a Grand Tour we could see a breakaway take the win, we can have big climbers attacking, you can see a sprint finish between the climbers and/or puncheurs, and the whole day is just full of little hilltops and descents that can cause splits.
There's over 3600 meters of climbing. The first half of the stage doesn't feature any big climb but there is barely a flat section of road, with little ramps right from the start, the riders will make a loop around the starting town of Biot - riding through the start after 73.5Km - followed by a second time riding the opening section of the stage, before entering the second and final loop of the stage, this one 27 kilometers in lenght.
They're made up of the climb and descent of the Cote de Gourdon, it's a really interesting climb, it's long with 14Km of distance but not overly steep. The first 9Km aren't easy with some gradients of 7% around the end of that section that should be the launchpad for some attacks, as no team probably will want to control the race over that section in the final lap. The climb summits with 53.5 and 26.5Km to go and in the final lap there should be some attacks as I've mentioned, before a sizeable flat-ish section that leads the rougher final kilometer.
The Weather
Slight breeze from the southeast, normal temperatures, nothing important.
The Favourites
I think the stage will be decided in the final climb. It's a really interesting stage, there's a lot of climbing but no serious climbs, however the final loop makes for a very open stage where the climbers should be up there, and perhaps hit each other in the GC race, and it can also in a conservative scenario finish in a sprint with some puncheurs/rouleurs also in contention for the stage.
The climbers will surely be in the spotlight, there's a difference between those that can sprint and those that can't, with the latter having to attack in order to win the stage as the final kilometers aren't that tough. Those would include men like Ineos' Pavel Sivakov, Nairo Quintana, Bauke Mollema, Jakob Fuglsang, some others could be included but it needs to be a brutal attack on that middle section of the climb in order to succeed, a small group getting aswell. However those more likely to succeed are those who can sprint, or at least have a very strong 1-minute power in which I would include riders like Daniel Martin and Michael Woods, who will have a better opportunity however have a solid chance to kick off their season well tomorrow. Ineos have Tao Geoghegan Hart who also has a really good sprint, the team have a lot of scenarios on which to act and Hart's abilities are the safest choice for a stage win, Giulio Ciccone has almost won a sprint finish in Provence so definitely he is one to consider, Groupama have Thibaut Pinot who shouldn't be in his best form but he's never to be discounted specially in a finish like this, David Gaudu himself is quite explosive, Jesus Herrada and Clément Champoussin are also a couple of climbers who can really sprint well so are always to be considered.
The other dangerous riders are those that can survive the climbs and then have a quite strong sprint. In that field you can consider some classics riders that are coming in like AG2R who've brought Greg van Avermaet and Oliver Naesen (although they are more focused in training), I wouldn't consider Christophe Laporte as a favourite but he is known to climb quite well when on form (as it's the case currently) and he came here for some reason. Magnus Cort Nielsen, Fabio Felline, Ryan Gibbons, Pattrick Bevin are some sprinters/puncheurs who on a big day could be taking the win, but the win could come from a puncheurs who can sprint. Tom Pidcock isn't quite a puncheur, but he is a multi-talented rider who will surely like this finale, alongside Jhonatan Narvaez Ineos have got here their two fastest riders, both can climb which means they may race more conservatively with goal of preserving the chances of this duo. Rui Costa, Daryl Impey and Xandro Meurisse are my final cards on the table, all quality riders who can sprint and ride over these rolling climbs quite well.
Prediction Time
⭐ Narvaez, Sivakov, GV.Avermaet, Fuglsang, Mollema, Champoussin, Bevin, R.Costa
It's a bit of a joker stage. No-one knows how it'll go down, it'll depend on the pace set on the final circuit, personally I think it'll be high but not enough to destroy the peloton, it'll come down to a sprint finish and Daryl Impey is my call for the win, he is used to starting off the season with a blast, climbs really well and the finish is taylor-made for him.
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