La Marseillaise, Bessèges, Provence. France has held the beggining of the European season and they have stepped up properly. The show goes on! Yet another race will seriously profit from the current health situation, the old Tour du Haut Var, current Tour des Alpes Maritimes et du Var is set to host a trio of hilly and mountainous stages that will see a big list of climbers coming in to host their early-season racing.
The Route
The opening stage is quite an awesome one. Puncheur sprint finish? Breakaway? GC battle? GC sprint finish? Lot of possible scenarios, rolling roads and a triple ascent of the final climb to the little town of Gourdon.
The Mur de Fayence is not an unknown to cycling's big races, the stage is overall hard but it'll be all about that pinch in the finish, a brutal ramp to the finish that's suited to the puncheurs perfectly.
The queen stage is a thing of beauty, this is what the mountains around Nice can be turned into with a little creativity and vision. Saint Roch, Braus, Castillon and Madone, before a rolling finish into Balusasc. This is a stage fitting of everything between a classic and a Grand Tour, perfect for raids, suited in any scenario for exciting racing.
Weather for the Week
Some sun and nice February weather, the final stage should see quite a bit of wind which may shape the stage a bit, but nothing too important.
Team Depth
The first and last stages will be good for those teams that have the numbers, not only for strategical purposes but also because form is relatively unknown for some riders, so all these teams should have alternatives to their set leader if it is necessary. Ineos come as the team with the biggest attention, arguably it'll be quite regular to see them with lineups this strong, but with a base in Nice and a tremendous amount of quality coming in their team, they will surely be the team with most pressure. Unsure who is in theory the leader, Geraint Thomas didn't look in form in Bessèges so I will have my limitations with him, Dennis and van Baarle surely will also have helping roles, Jhonatan Narvaez and Thomas Pidcock will have great opportunities on stage 2 having a suited finish but I would have count Pidcock as a big contender for the overall, being a very successful climber. As for the actual climbers there's the current Giro champion Tao Hart who will enjoy his return to racing back in the mountains, Pavel Sivakov will be the other option, both big contenders for a final win.
Some other teams will have similar - but never the same - amount of options, Groupama for a starter are coming in with a team full of climbers, Thibaut Pinot isn't expected to have a flying start to the season but he has several teammates who can have one, David Gaudu for a starters will at the very least be a co-leader, but this kind of racing will be to his liking, the presence of Valentin Madouas, Rudy Molard and Sebastian Reichenbach will be of an immense help. Their French rivals AG2R also have a team with a lot of depth, but not as much quality, Nans Peters, Ben O'Connor and Clément Champoussin will have a great opportunity to test themselves in the mountains. Furthermore you've got Trek also coming with a strong team led by Giulio Ciccone (who looks to be in great form) and Bauke Mollema, and Israel coming in with the duo of Daniel Martin and Michael Woods who will enjoy a week without time-trials.
Going Rogue
A lot of options are good for teams at this race, although it shouldn't be a main goal to many riders in the lineup some teams rely on particular riders for their GC success here, firstly the defending champion Nairo Quintana is a last-minute addition after having a big injury in the knees caused by his Tour de France crashes, I don't expect to see him flying but it's nice to see him back on the bike, would also point out DSM's Marco Brenner, again I don't expect much from him but as an incredibly talented 18 year old I will be really interested seeing what he'll be able to do.
Jakob Fuglsang is coming in as Astana's leader, it's a race quite suited for him and he's riding in known roads so I can say he is expected to be up there in front, Astana have in fact a very broad and strong team including the likes of Gorka Izagirre who can also be up there in the front places, but the lead should be for the Dane. From there on there are some outsiders, Jesus Herrada is a bit more than an outsider he is a quality rider but it isn't an easy field to succeed, Fabio Aru had some issues in Provence so I'll be seeing if he improves and shows some good signs this week, UAE have some good climbers, David De la Cruz should be the GC option, having Rui Costa as an outsider and someone who usually begins his seasons already in good form, and finally I'd mention Xandro Meurisse as an underdog capable of thriving.
At the time this preview is posted EF Education - Nippo, Team Qhubeka ASSOS, Israel Start-Up Nation, DELKO, Bingoal - Wallonie Bruxelles, Equipo Kern Pharma and Swiss Racing Academy have not yet 100% confirmed their lineups so it's possible that there may be a change or two, however changes aren't likely.
Prediction Time
⭐ Narvaez, G.Thomas, Pinot, Peters, Mollema, Woods, Quintana, Herrada
Ineos' depth will be worth and the team should, in my opinion, take the overall. Who will be the one taking is a different topic, I will go for Pavel Sivakov as an incredibly complete rider who usually starts off the season well, and likes the long climbs the final day will present.
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