It promised to be an exciting day of racing and it delivered, the time-trial set big and surprising differences between the GC favourites, reshaping it massively. Rigoberto Uran took the win, a big one taking 40 seconds on Julian Alaphilippe and 54 on Gino Mader, a truly astonishing performance that put him up to 2nd in the overall behind Carapaz, who held his own to finish 4th.
Positive: Uran with a massive performance, putting himself right up there in the fight for the GC win. Mader surprisingly strong after a couple of very disapointing days. Pozzovivo, Rui Costa and Cattaneo all with strong performances, climbing up the overall.
Negative: Fuglsang and Schachmann underwhelming, both coming down the overall.
The Route
The final stage of the race promises another big showdown in the mountains as the peloton will tackle a big perfect loop around Andermatt one last time in a day with 160 kilometers of distance and 3500 meters of climbing. There is no one big climb in the day, but the combination, the fatigue and the altitude will all play a big part. The stage may seem like a bit of a deja vu though, as all the climbs being ridden will have already been climbed these past two days... (I have no issue with it though!)
The day will start with a familiar formula, uphill from the gun, you see the technical descent of today? It's tomorrow's starting climb, the riders will do the opposite, a rough start that can see some big attacks, with altitude and a lot of hairpins in the mix.
After descending today's finish they will climb the Lukmanierpass but on the opposite side, a similar climb nonetheless, not very constant but has rough grades near it's start and finish, high altitude and it summits with 110 kilometers to the finish, quite a long way to go.
The riders will descent 1600 meter in altitude to then go up 1700, unfortunately the beautiful San Gottardo road won't be ridden, the riders will instead climb up again through the tunnel, a very constant climb, high altitude, hard enough for big attacks, summits with 14.5Km to go and sees a very fast descent back into Andermatt, with a few flat kilometers before the finishing line, exactly in the same place as today.
The Weather
The wind will be coming from the north at moderate intensity however the gusts can go up to 50Km/h, in exposed sections they can be felt greatly. This means a couple things, firstly, the Lukmanierpass will be ridden fully in a tailwind, witht he hidden starting ascent it surely means big attacks will be coming there, weather conditions are favourable and because the final climb of the Gothardpass will be generally in a headwind, as will be the final descent, not great for those looking to attack.
The Favourites
Final day of racing and you should expect two races inside the stage once again. Wether the breakaway will succeed or not I can't say as certainly, but what I do know is that in the GC there will be a clear Ineos vs everyone else. Carapaz has also been riding really strong, and Ineos is really strong so I doubt they'll be put under pressure, they know how to race. In the final climb surely he will be attacked, because others have to try and win the race naturally, but question lies over if he'll be distanced or not, and if they'll fight for the stage. Uran will wait until the final climb, this is already a good result and if he's to win the race he'll wait, Fuglsang will surelly attack too, he's got work to do just to get back into the podium. Max Schachmann struggled a lot today I don't know how he'll do tomorrow but surely defensively as the big mountains aren't his terrain, as for Alaphilippe surely the same situation, that is if he sets his foot on the start line which is unlikely.
Michael Woods and Domenico Pozzovivo are also jokers, 6th and 7th in the overall, both are over 3 minutes behind on the overall, solid placing for both but the way they're climbing surely they will try to change that too, I wouldn't be surprised to see them on the move in the first climbs of the day. I would expect the same from Chaves, riding really strongly he's just 10th in the GC 4:29 down, he's got nothing to loose I expect him to attack early on and try to raid the race.
For sure there will be many riders looking for that win too though, some that aren't in the fight for the GC or are outside the Top10, and there are great climbers and great form in some of them. The Bahrain guys Wout Poels and Gino Mader did really well on stage 2, both looked pretty good today again, they had a couple of really bad day in the mountains which I couldn't understand but tomorrow can be the win for them, the climbing start will help them be there, aswell as all other climbers like their teammate the purest of climbers Hermann Pernsteiner who's been riding really well here. You could include Antwan Tolhoek in that list as he's riding really well and shouldn't have responsabilities, David de la Cruz also rode really well yesterday and tomorrow has a better suiting finale for his legs. Tom Dumoulin, Matteo Fabbro and Mauri Vansevenant are all riders in very different positions in the race but can do something big aswell if they find themselves in front.
Tiesj Benoot can also be there for sure if he tries it, no reason not to try as he seems in solid form, Marc Soler and Antonio Nibali who went up San Gottardo yesterday with Alaphilippe should also be fully up to the attempt and really have no reason not to go for it, Nibali will for sure since he's got a KOM lead to defend.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#65 Antonio Nibali - Antonio today is a big day. Two days ago you rode up the climbs incredibly well and got the KOM jersey, we have to keep it at all cost it will be a brilliant result for you. The stage may go to the breakaway, it would be good if that wasn't the case so what I want you to do is make sure at all cost that you're in the break, stay in the wheels and sprint for the points, both of the first climbs. From there on just don't work, maybe your break companions won't like it but the win is the goal.
#1 Richard Carapaz - Richie you've done a brilliant race so far, getting the yellow jersey and the win in that fashion was really good, never shocked with your quality but staying calm and collected, that's exactly what you need tomorrow. You clearly have the legs, trust the guys, stay grouped! Don't loose sight of Eddie and Rohan, they're strong enough to take you into the final climb even if the previous two are attacked hard. Stay in the wheel of Rigoberto in the final one, you can let everyone else go, trust Eddie's work, not letting Uran take bonifications is good, the team I'll tell them to take it easy when possible, Fuglsang will attack you but let him go to and control the gap if needed, point is don't let Uran get a single meter, get over the climb and you're having the win in the pocket.
#126 Omar Fraile - Omar today we must attack the race. The strategy isn't overly hard, there are good days to get in the break but today isn't one of them, stay with Jakob, if the group is small over Lukmanierpass you can tell him to get in the wheel and blast down the descent, maybe he could be distanced but it's a big ask. On paper the plan is stay with Jakob the whole way, in the final climb push the pace really hard for a kilometer or two, anaerobic pace, we need to make the climb hard from the start and have him attack there, you're the strongest climber out of the guys and that's what we have to do to get on the podium, maybe more.
Prediction Time
⭐ Woods, Chaves, Pozzovivo, Soler, Nibali, Pernsteiner, Fabbro, Vansevenant
Think the breakaway will succeed. Chances are he won't even be close to the win because I'm naming him, but if he has today's legs he's definitely a big favourite, Gino Mader.
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