It was a day for the break as expected, it was a fast start with the likes of Julian Alaphilippe in the early break, but after having been caught the actual break of the day was settled, very big group and full of quality, David De la Cruz attacked early and kept his lead almost to the finish, was caught by a group of 3 that sprinted for the line, Rui Costa was the fastest but had a huge deviation and ended up finishing second to Andreas Kron. Hermann Pernsteiner finished third.
Positive: Kron, coming undercover in a day that didn't suit him, big win.
Negative: UAE, having 4 great riders in front, playing their cards perfectly and having the stage lost because of a sketchy sprint.
The Route
A decisive day. 23 kilometers of individual challenge and the Tour de Suisse is not afraid to give us an unique time-trial, as we'll have the ascent of the Oberalppass and a sketchy descent into Andermatt on our hands.
The riders will have 2 kilometers of flat roads to warm up, I'm sure time-trial bikes will be used because there are seconds to be gained here, and the speed these riders will be climbing the ascent, possibly on the big ring if they fit in a small big chainring, aerodynamics will still be essential.
The climb isn't huge, altitude will indeed make it more complicated but the gradients will never really go above 7/8% so time-trial is indeed the way to go.
The first half of the descent will be hyper fast. If a time-trial bike is in usage it will be dangerous, and in the sharp hairpins definitely a road bike would be more confortable, but TT rig would at least balance here with the speed advantage it will give specially in that long downhill stretch.
The Weather
Some breeze from the north, it shouldn't really matter it's not an exposed TT, crosswinds most of the way, ro rain luckily.
The Favourites
Tomorrow there isn't really much to discuss, it's a wide open day. Although it's exciting to see such a time-trial it's relatively dangerous nonetheless, the real discussion before the stage is if the riders should go for a road or a TT bike. My opinion is they should go with a TT bike, the riders start off with a 2Km flat section, and the climb although relatively long isn't that hard with the average grade on 6.5%, at the speed these guys go up it it's definitely worth it to have an aero setup, the possible weight difference won't make anyone slower on the ascent, if so it will only be just a few seconds, that can easily be compensated in other parts of the route. The other debate is on the hairpins, they won't be easy and the riders will arguably have more control on the road bike... but then again, those that will be fighting for the stage will have a reckon of the descent done beforehand, and even in the case that some seconds were lost, the very fast section in the beginning of the descent clearly favours TT bike. To me the choice is obvious, I feel like we'll see some big names go against the logic though.
Contenders are also obvious, it's the guys that have been up there in the mountains so far. The TT climb and descents, it won't be a battle between non-GC riders, you could argue that perhaps some riders like Rohan Dennis, Andreas Leknessund or Mattia Cattaneo, as good TTists, can get in there and be between the best placed, but overall the riders fighting for the podium will have the big word here.
From guys like Esteban Chaves, Michael Woods, Domenico Pozzovivo, who are lightweight and usually struggle in TT's quite a lot (except Pozzovivo who somehow rides decently sometimes) I expect a TT bike, confort over speed, they may go up the climb fast but the gradients don't favour them, I expect more losses from them and essentially see their chances of winning the GC dissipate.
From Julian Alaphilippe, surely the descent will motivate him quite a lot, the climb isn't that hard so he can do it, constant efforts are not for him but for sure he'll do a good time. Max Schachmann, the other puncheur, is more favoured for this kind of climb, very powerful rider he's perhaps the man to beat here.
Richard Carapaz and Jakob Fuglsang are relatively balanced, Fuglsang will be benefited on the faster sections, and the climb is good for him with the lack of steep gradients, I doubt Carapaz will take big risks in the descent, he'll have to count on the climb to make his bid for the stage win. Rigoberto Uran, Sam Oomen, outsider options for the stage, they can do well of course, Uran specially.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#85 Marc Sarreau - Wait why are you here again? No idea, there really isn't an issue if you come outside the limit but I guess you wanna get another mountain race day in the legs tomorrow.
#141 Christophe Laporte - Christophe, there isn't really any point to still be in the race so take it as you want, if you come outside the limit you loose nothing, good form you've got for the Tour.
#5 Pavel Sivakov - Pavel although on your best days this is a stage for you we have to think of the bigger picture. You've been riding well for Richard, tomorrow you'll have to do it again so take it easy today, you're not gonna be in the Top10 with that form, rest up to kick in again tomorrow.
Prediction Time
⭐ Woods, Chaves, Pozzovivo, Uran, Oomen, Dennis, Cattaneo, Leknessund
I think Max Schachmann may not be the fastest in the climb but he will be fast enough to take the win, taking advantage of the initial flat kilometers and the descent to take time on those that should have gravity on their side in the uphill.
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