It was as expected an explosive finale in Leukerbad as the GC contenders had a brilliant fight over the final climbs. The leader van der Poel actually made it into the early breakaway, with purpose of training surely, early in the penultimate climb the peloton was smashed to bits, Chaves and Fuglsang launched dangerous attacks, Richard Carapaz was the one waiting for the final ascent where he attacked dropping the chase group, catching up with Fuglsang who he then beat at the sprint. Woods finished third.
Positive: Carapaz, nerves of steel not responding to the attacks, waiting and made a successful and strong attack on the final climb.
Negative: Soler, dropped after sprinting for bonus seconds. Poels/Mader (after being led down the wrong road in a roundabout), Powless loosing a lot of time in the overall.
The Route
The second of the big mountain stages is tomorrow and it is a very short one, with only 130 kilometers in distance and a hard start it's ideal territory for raids, the day starts in Andermatt and immediately jumps into...
The Gotthardpass, or as you may know as the Passo San Gottardo. This is the mythical cobblestone-paved mountain, however they will neither be ridden up or down in this stage but instead the mountain tunnel will be used. Nevertheless the riders literally start of the stage climbing it, it's not a brutal climb but it does go up to 2100 meters in altitude which will make it a hard task for everyone, and with 1700 meters of descending afterwards I wouldn't be surprised to see big names trying to create chaos in the race.
The Lukmanierpass summits at 1918 meters of altitude and 29.5Km to go and is the main climb of the day. It's quite far from the finish, and the climb isn't that hard. Will it make differences? Guess it will depend on how the first climb of the day is ridden, and if there are riders looking to take some times ahead of the decisive time-trial.
The last 11 kilometers average around 3%. If there are gaps made beforehand they can really build up in the valley run-up to the finish in Sedrun. If not maybe we'll see some cat and mouse, maybe some attacks, it is not a small section and gaps can be made specially for the teams with numbers.
The Weather
Slight chance of rain, small though, the wind may be the most important factor of the day with a northern breeze, that may be strong in high points. Means a cross-headwind in the Lukmanierpass, headwind over the top and descent, not exactly ideal for those who want to attack.
The Favourites
The GC fight will be the highlight of the day, throughout the rest of the week in fact, but I don't see big attacks coming tomorrow. The Lukmanierpass isn't that hard, with Ineos in control they definitely will want a controlled race and they have the team for it, the headwind over the top of the climb definitely isn't the best scenario for attacks but even if they were to come, the long false-flat drag into the line would also be a very tough effort to do alone. Besides, Carapaz looked very strong and composed today, I'm sure he won't have many problems following the moves. Nevertheless some riders in the Top10 may attack the big climb, Chaves at least after what he did today, BikeExchange have Hamilton in the fight and they can play with their numbers, Chaves should also have freedom with the time he's lost. For Fuglsang and Woods I see them saving their bullets, Alaphilippe and Schachmann may attack on the final kilometers though as they will be suited to them, riders with more pure power that can gain some seconds on the rest, Rigoberto Uran and Domenico Pozzovivo also looked good today and they may try something out tomorrow, the Italian mainly if the stage is up for grabs because he's 3 minutes behind the lead of the Equatorian.
The stage, in my honest opinion looking at this stage, is up for grabs for the breakaway. The big gaps made today will give freedom to lots of strong climbers, the hard uphill start will allow them to be in front if they want, and the combination of all the factors I've said previously may see a conservative race between the GC guys. You could argue that riders like Tiesj Benoot or Wout Poels could be threats for the Top10, or see some teams looking to control them, everyone else though should have all freedom to move. That will include riders like Gino Mader, Marc Soler and Neilson Powless who have had good days in this race already but have had a, some who will like the more rolling climbs who are showing good legs like Bob Jungels and Andreas Leknessund, and some pure climbers like Antwan Tolhoek, Rui Costa, Matteo Badilatti, Niklas Eg and James Piccoli who did quite well today on their own terms and may be looking to move up the overall, others like Marc Hirschi or Thymen Arensman may also shoot their shot and succeed.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#162 Filippo Conca - Filippo today don't worry about the results, not a day for us, just get in some more racing and prepare for the next goals.
#174 Victor de la Parte - Victor, breakaway today yes? Alexis did quite well today, he's inside the Top15 but he should try to get in the group, the start is hard so I want you right up there in the neutralized section and then shoot off right away. The start will be hard, you need to get on the rollers beforehand, in the race if Alexis manages to get over there your job is to grit those teeth and set as high of a pace as you can throughout the descent and the first kilometers of the Lukmanierpass, try to get that gap as big as possible, give him a good chance to fight for the stage and go up on the overall. If he's not there you have the green card. Make it into the move, save yourself in the descent, ride conservatively during the climb, don't attack only follow moves, you're not the strongest rider so you have to play your cards well, but you did good today so you can have some confidence in a good result. Stay in the wheels, play your luck in the finale with some attacks if the victory is in sight on the drag to the line.
#71 Gino Mader - What happened today mate? Both you and Wout have a lot to make up to, GC was well within our grasp and today just went horrible. You better have had a big breakfast because you're going to go big today, you clearly have the legs to take a big win, I saw your stage 2 performance, so no excuses. Plan is simple, first get in front, you have freedom and the legs, should be easy. Then look around, we should have more than one guy up there, if Wout is there you will attack early in the Lukmanierpass, he is in great form and he should attack there too in order to go solo to the line, so we need to make it as hard as possible from as early as possible to make sure that happens. If he's not, we'll tell your teammate (if you have one in front) to do the same strategy, and you make a big move with 7km to go on the big climb, late enough to have few guys capable of answering, early enough to build a sizeable gap. If someone goes with you then work together, pray for the best in the end cause you won't be able to distance him anymore, if you go solo it's a go all-out to the top of the climb, ride conservative and aero in the descent, and then TT in the drag to the line. You've got this!
Prediction Time
⭐ Hamilton, Fuglsang, Woods, Powless, Leknessund, Hirschi Eg, R.Costa
I'm going with a win for the break for Wout Poels, he did get dropped today but I felt like it was a consequence of the mishap at the roundabout before the big climb, he was gassed and badly positioned at the entrance. He's shown good form already so I expect to see him on the attack tomorrow, and take the win.
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