Stefan Bissegger took vengeance on the opening time-trial and has won this rain-soaked stage, as the early breaks were caught unusually early and a decisive group of 4 attacked around halfway through the stage, one that except for Suter stayed united until the line, where Stefan Bissegger easily took the sprint win in front of Benjamin Thomas and Joey Rosskopf, as in the peloton everyone came home safely despite the dangerous conditions.
Positive: Bissegger taking the win after just missing out on the initial time-trial.
Negative: Nothing to note.
The Route
The Leukerbad ski resort will take in another finale of the Tour de Suisse and this is the kind of stage that promises show. Steep climbs, short peaks and a punchy uphill finish all wrapped up in this finish. Most of the stage will ride through the upper Rhone valley, riding through Aigle, Martigny and Sion before going up the valley.
7.8Km at 8.6% is that first ascent, steep and full of switchbacks, fresh off a long flat run-in makes it an explosive climb and we can see some big attacks here, at the very least a big split in the peloton. It summits with 18.5Km to go and antecedes a short technical descent into the final climb. I couldn't get a profile of it unfortunately but it is relatively easier, around 9.5Km at 6% with a slight decline in grade from 2.5 to 1Km to go, before a final long drag to the line already inside the ski town.
The Weather
An actual normal day, with nice temperatures, no wind and likely no rain.
The Favourites
The finale is hard, the question is if all the puncheurs will have the legs to survive and take advantage of their explosivity towards the end, the final climb isn't that hard and if the pace isn't suffocating the main climb, it may very well tilt towards them, even though riders like Carapaz, Poels and Woods are here and can themselves attack quite viciously. Breakaway chances are low, it will be a day where for sure the lead will chance, some teams will want a very high pace and create differences in the finale, and honestly if there is intention it's a realtively easy day to organize and chase down a group.
The teams that won't be working exactly are those of the puncheurs for sure, they want a conservative ride up the main climbs and if they get that exactly they will likely discuss the stage, this because we're not talking of any regular puncheurs but the best in the world, Julian Alaphilippe and Max Schachmann for a start who on their best form can do both these climbs with the best climbers in the world, or close. They will have intentions, the high mountains will be harder for them, but this is the ideal kind of finale, and they don't have pressure to work all they have to do is essentially follow the wheels if they can and then strike out towards the end, their speciality. Questions marks can be put on Mathieu van der Poel, although he is not a climber he has shown decent abilities at longer climbs and steady pace, if the main climb is ridden conservatively enough for sure he has a chance, but I do believe his wins and leadership are already more than enough for this race, he won't be under pressure. Of course in this category you could include other riders like specially Marc Hirschi who we're yet to see if he's got his best form back (although the signs are promising) and Tiesj Benoot, yes I think it's proper to place him in this category.
You have then the more explosive climbers, I would argue tomorrow is the best suiting day for both Michael Woods and Jakob Fuglsang, although neither of them can really sprint with the best they are big fans of anaerobic climbs and although the final one isn't that steep it's definitely a fitting effort and I wouldn't be surprised to see these teams trying to create damage, but mostly I would expect that from Ineos who are all in Richard Carapaz and the way the Equatorian rider, together with a brilliant in-form Eddie Dunbar, for sure they will be making moves tomorrow. Bahrain could do something too, they've got a strong team and Wout Poels showed on the opening road stage that he's having really good legs, he's a very diverse rider who can thrive on the high mountains but can do shorter climbs just as well, with Gino Mader also seemingly in good form they also have reasons to be trying to create damage early on.
I would expect the win to be fought between these riders, however there are other strong climbers who should be up there, BikeExchange's duo for a starters as Esteban Chaves needs to recover serious time if he wants to fight for the win of the race, Lucas Hamilton aswell who should be a more wise decision. You have EF who've got Rigoberto Uran (who should come to the front more in the high mountains) and Neilson Powless, Jumbo who have Sam Oomen and Antwan Tolhoek, the last one with freedom to attack, and the Giro DNF's Marc Soler and Domenico Pozzovivo who are looking to make a quality comeback.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#221 Simon Pellaud - Simon today you will go through Martigny your home town, you HAVE to get in the breakaway! Do everything to be there, the start is slightly uphill it suits you quite well, here we have no set leader so it's all about getting in front and shooting our shot, I look forward to see you there tomorrow, the stage will likely be for the GC men but do your best.
#4 Sebastián Henao - Sebastian today is a big day and we have to do our best to, in the very least keep Richard in the position he's currently at near the lead. Luke and Michal will control things and help with positioning for the climbs, you will have a free role up to there just stay with the guys and save your legs, when Erschmatt starts you get to the front, we have not only Richard but also Eddie in great form, Pavel and Rohan are capable of controlling big attacks and your job is to ride in front of them, shed the peloton, drain the puncheurs too so set a high pace from the bottom, Luke will lead you in perfectly and your task is very specific, a constant yet high pace for around 10/15 minutes, when you can't anymore someone else will take over, drop back and save up to the line.
#134 Fabian Lienhard - Fabian there's no real role for today, Jake couldn't contest any sprint and Matteo has dropped out of GC contention, but our job is done we had a win and a yellow jersey for some days and you did your job well protecting Stefan. However you feel, get in the head of the group and if you feel you can join a break try to do so, but no pressure as we don't realistically have a chance to take a win even in that scenario, enjoy the home roads.
Prediction Time
⭐ van der Poel, Hirschi, Benoot, Fuglsang, Dunbar, Mader, Uran, Soler
I think Julian Alaphilippe win take this and also go into the lead. His rides so far have shown a lot of power and confidence, he can definitely climb and the final climb is ideal for him, a sprint win is coming.
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