In what was another very attacked stage the puncheur came to the front to contest it, there were big attacks by the likes of Alaphilippe, van der Poel and Cortina but in the end it all came down to a reduced bunch sprint where despite the presence of some sprinter, van der Poel easily took his second win and the lead of the race. He beat Christophe Laporte and Julian Alaphilippe in the sprint.
Positive: Van der Poel dominating the race so far.
Negative: Matthews did a nice stage but didn't even finish on the podium in the sprint (although he was somewhat blocked by Alaphilippe). Mader loosing time on the GC.
The Route
Wait, so this isn't the Tour's stage to Gap? Oh ok...
It's a weird stage, one designed for the sprinters essentially but with a meaningful ascent very close to the finish. The stage makes the traverse towards the southwest, mostly with flat roads ahead, the stage will change at the IS in Zweisimmen.
It summits with just 9.5 kilometers to go. This isn't a hard climb, but put into context it's enough to dislodge some of the contenders to the day. Averaging 4.4% will be enough specially with fresh legs on some domestiques, I doubt attacks will succeed because slipstreaming will be quite important, and the descent won't be technical into the finish in the Saanen airport.
Yes you heard it right, airport. It's not the Artic Tour of Norway but we have in Gstaad a different finale than normal, the final few kilometers are flat and good to chase if needed. Naturally it's not a technical finale aswell.
The Weather
A slight breeze from the north but most importantly the forecast points to rain once again, it is likely to come, although today's was similar and was dry.
The Favourites
The ultimate favourite is Mathieu van der Poel, after having won these two stages in such fashion tomorrow he is without a doubt the man to beat, however he surely won't get the help anymore of BikeExchange who've had no return whatsoever on their hard work on the last few days and would have no reason to put themselves through it again. The main competition should be if the race is taken more slowly and a bunch sprint awaits the riders, as some fast men like Christophe Laporte, Juan Sebastian Molano or Mike Teunissen could contest it with him, perhaps even Andre Greipel if he could miraculously go over the climb, or Edward Theuns who recently won a stage in Hungary. It will surely be hard though, some riders like Alexander Kamp and Ryan Gibbons have better chances of making it in the decisive group and fighting for the top places.
The climb isn't that hard, attacks shouldn't be very hard to cover but it is still a decent ascent. The danger won't lie in the big men as they will be marked, but strong outsiders can definitely succeed. There's the obviously Alaphilippe, Schachmann and Hirschi but they probably won't have any leash, riders like Ivan Cortina, Anthony Turgis, Mattia Cattaneo for example will have freedom and all were on the attack today, for sure tomorrow we'll see round two from some of these men. The list is quite big, the climb isn't that steep so surprise attacks can come from plenty riders, I would put in as jokers Bob Jungels and Soren Kragh Andersen for such a finale.
As for breakaway chances they exist, but the only way one will succeed is if there really isn't interest in the peloton to chase, the start and most of the stage is flat and there shouldn't be a problem organizing a strong chase.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#202 Maurits Lammertink - Ok Maurits today is a day to try your luck with a breakaway. You have to count on some deorganization in the peloton, but you have no control over that, you and the guys have to start off the stage right in front and attack from Km0, you have good chances if you get in there and the break succeeds, it's all about riding within your limits and taking your chances in the final 3Kms of the ascent, you've shown brilliant legs in the Ardennes and I want to see another performance like that!
#32 Ryan Gibbons - Ryan today was quite hard, I can't blame you for not having gotten over the climb but with the form you showed in Mallorca I do expect more, today has your name written all over you will be the priority, Marc will have green card to attack but if you feel good, everyone else will help you out, such a climb is easy for you on a good day so I will deposit my confidence in you and I hope to have a return on that.
#163 Andreas Kron - Andreas you've been doing really well so far, within the Top10, riding with the best and getting some good experience with it. I hope you're taking a good look, the goal is to challenge them in the future. Today we will protect just you, no-one else has been close to having your legs so we recognize you deserve the support, the day really isn't hard so you don't need to worry, we'll do our best to get you in position for the final climb and there stay near the front. You can try to follow some moves in the final kilometers if you feel good, nothing to loose!
Prediction Time
⭐ Molano, Schachmann, Hirschi, Turgis, Cattaneo, Jungels, SK.Andersen
Anthony Turgis is my call to take the win, there will be teams trying to make the climb hard from the start, some of the sprinters will get dropped, the front of the peloton will be sensitive to attacks like today, but the attacks tomorrow can succeed better as the decisive climb/descent is much closer to the finish.
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