The stage promised a showdown between the puncheurs and some climbers and it delivered that exactly. In a rain filled day it all came down to the final climb where Deceuninck pushed the pace from the bottom. Attacks from Alaphilippe and Schachmann destroyed the group, but a small group went over the top and only after the descent did Mathieu van der Poel attack, shortly being caught by Schachmann but easily winning the sprint to the line, with Wout Poels third. Kung just barely managed to retain his lead.
Positive: The big GC riders were those that were in front today essentially. Van der Poel easily getting his win, Kung keeping yellow on a rough finish, Cortina the surprise finishing with the front group.
Negative: Vansevenant, Sivakov, Pozzovivo, Fabbro and Dumoulin between those loosing time today.
The Route
162 kilometers and 2500 meters of climbing on this day that is quite hilly, a stage that's essentially designed for a breakaway to succeed with a rough start, climbing almost off the gate into Schindellegi and having some complicated hilltops that will facilitate strong climbers to get a gap which can then be kept throughout the day.
That is because the last half of the stage has several ascents which should be too hard for most sprinters, and really far from ideal for an organized chase, as the pace has to be high on the climbs and the teams chasing will be loosing men in a consistent way. The final important climb which I won't attempt to write comes with 25 kilometers to go, if the pace is high many will suffer but at the same time if the peloton manages to control the breakaway it's not impossible to see a bunch finish.
After the ascent there is yet another small peak which can further explode the race, but what I quite simply mean is the way to the line is by no means easy. Unfortunately there's no streetview of the finale, a visible sharp corner comes with 400 meters to go and by what the profile tells us is that the final 2 kilometers have a very gentle uphill tilt.
The Weather
The forecast points at yet even more rain tomorrow. It's not going to be an easy week this one, and the peloton will have an even harder day than what's on paper.
The Favourites
Breakaway day written all over. Will it though? It's 2021 so you never know, but looking at such a stage it does look like the most likely scenario. I will argue that it's very likely that BikeExchange, Alpecin and Groupama may very well work together to control things, but it will be a day that's very hard to control, not only throughout it but even if the break is caught the latter part of the day may very well see late attacks succeed aswell. There's a list of riders who should have freedom to get in a break, some that also love the rainy weather, will have riders like Rui Costa and Maurits Lammertink who will appreciate the uphill start and can make their differences in there, rouleurs that climb very well like Thymen Arensman or Nans Peters, Peters' teammate Michael Schar is a local and I would also expect to see him try, you have strong rouleurs like Anthony Turgis and Hugo Houle who can with no doubt also thrive on such a day and I would add the EF tanks Stefan Bissegger and Jonas Rutsch who won't have as much of an easy time on the ascents but everything inbetween is their territory.
I don't think any uphill attack later in the day will see gaps, if today that didn't happen it sure won't be the case tomorrow. The bookies seem very positive about that scenario though having men like Alaphilippe and Hirschi in the very top but I would argue they won't have any freedom. Late attacks may however succeed in utter chaos if someone here gets a gap, from the big puncheurs of course van der Poel/Schachmann/Cosnefroy adding to the ones previously mentioned, but I would go with better chances for some very powerful riders who don't have such a big name and should have much more freedom like Mattia Cattaneo, Soren Kragh Andersen and Ivan Cortina who did brilliantly today.
Nevertheless the chances for the sprinters exist and Michael Matthews is with no doubt still a big favourite for the stage, although as expected today he won the bunch sprint behind and tomorrow is likely to see the same scenario. BikeExchange do have a strong team though and the stage isn't as hard, tomorrow it's more likely to see alliances with the teams of other sprinters specially Cofidis who have Christophe Laporte who's a very good name for such a stage. Juan Sebastian Molano, Mike Teunissen and Andre Greipel are names to consider in case everything is controlled and they find themselves on a good day, the finale is flat and in case of a bunch sprint the fast men will have the upper hand.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#36 Cristian Muñoz - It's a big day today, you're having protective duties because we'll be approaching the stage in different ways. Rui should be going for the breakaway that's the best thing to do, Marc and David should be covering or making moves in the final part of the stage if the breakaway doesn't succeed and for a possible sprint we have Juan and Ryan. These 4 must stay in the peloton and protected, you and Oliviero have the duties, we don't have to work but have to help them position throughout the day, there will be a lot of dangerous sections as the descents will come often, so stay in front at all times.
#161 John Degenkolb - We meet again John. Yesterday wasn't a day for you and you kept it light just as I said, today we try to strike. Some of the guys will try to get in the breakaway but the main focus will be on you, we deposit some confidence in your old climbing legs so we want you to stay safe in the peloton, well positioned and not be afraid to go all-out on the climbs to stay in the peloton. There aren't many sprinters here, if you make it through you can easily finish on the top places, keep the wheels on the climbs and stay in the right wheels on the aproach to the finish.
#147 Jelle Wallays - It's a day for a possible breakaway but the start is quite complicated for you Jelle so you'll be on protective role for Christophe, it's a big day for him where we can pull off a win, so if you see we have no-one in front and it looks dangerous I want you in the head of the peloton together with the guys who want to chase, push hard on the flat sections and bring it back a bit on the climbs, we don't want to make it a hard stage, just as controlled as possible. In case we get someone in front stay in the wheels with Christophe, we count on your experience that's why you're in the team, keep him close to the front specially on the descents.
Prediction Time
⭐ Arensman, Turgis, Cattaneo, Schachmann, Hirschi, Molano
I'm going with the breakaway being caught late, with a smashed peloton fighting for the win but just missing out on the win as Soren Kragh Andersen will attack solo and go onto a brilliant win.
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