Rohan Dennis took the opening stage of the Tour of Suisse, shaking off what's been a very modest season so far and entering the race with the lead onto the road stages. He beat Maciej Bodnar and Michael Matthews by less than a second and a second respectively. The first 6 riders came inside 5 seconds, the gaps were short as expected between the fastest riders.
Positive: Thomas made use of the stage, finishing 13th and gaining some seconds on his rivals, but Bernal, perhaps his biggest "rival", was 26th, defending himself and in fact gaining time on most GC contenders. Aru also very good in my eye with 39th, returning from his surgery on a circulation problem in the leg.
Negative: Mas lost 26 seconds on Thomas and Pozzovivo 36. It's a big loss for such a distance, not decisive but they will already be entering the hard stages with a solid step back, and not motivating signs for the other time-trial following.
The Route
As it's a habit in Suisse there's a hilly circuit early on the race. Stage 2 will start and finish once again in Langnau. 3 laps of a circuit with some climbing in it, a 8Km climb with 5.1% average but an easy section in the middle, followed by a short descent into Chuderhüsi where the climb is 9.3% for a whole 3Km.
This summits with 18.5Km to go and it's final kilometer is at 11%. It's a circuit where gaps can be made if a rider shows fragility. It's a day well suited for a breakaway but likely there will be teams interesting in making sure that doesn't happen.
The Weather
Lots and lots of rain throughout the night in Langnau, the same storm that affected the Dauphiné today, and although it may come weaker in the latter parts of the stage it's set to be a stage with wet roads and cloudy skies.
The Favourites
There's three scenarios for tomorrow, the first is for a breakaway to succeed but I don't see it as very likely, not because of the profile, but as there will be teams interested in reeling it back in as Bora and Sunweb. Who will be in a break is hard to guess, it's the first stage so there's little knowing who will be there.
Second scenario is a hard race over the climbs, and over the final summit there's a group of climbers, some puncheurs with the possibility of some coming back in after the climbing. In such a scenario riders like Kasper Asgreen, Geraint Thomas, Patrick Konrad, Luis Leon Sanchez, Rui Costa, Matej Mohoric, Tiesj Benoot, Greg van Avermaet, Michael Valgren. Thomas and Costa not so much, but the others should have some freedom as they aren't such big GC contenders or not fighting for the GC at all, mostly stage hunters. It's a stage suited for them and even with a slower stage they should come to the fore and be in the contention.
The scenario I find most likely is some sprinters resisting, or coming back in the descent/run-in to the finish. With riders such as Michael Matthews and Peter Sagan, there will be teams focused on keeping the race together and trying to bring it back for a sprint, they can climb very well for sprinters and this is a race where the pair usually shine. Matteo Trentin, I can even consider Greg van Avermaet more on this field, aswell as Patrick Bevin, as teams who would like a more compact finish, whose teams will work and perhaps chase back after the climbs.
Whatever happens will depend on the way it is raced. I wouldn't bet on seeing the GC riders making a move as they likely aren't very aware of the legs they have and don't want to risk being attacked if it goes wrong. Some riders will be wanting to attack the race but not those that will automatically destroy the peloton, so I think that even if they're left behind, a rider like Matthews can come back and see the stage decided in a reduced bunch sprint.
Prediction Time
⭐ van Avermaet, Bevin, Thomas, Konrad, LL.Sanchez, R.Costa, Benoot, Valgren
I consider the sprint scenario better than the others, and Michael Matthews showed today good form. He's a rider who can get into great form without racing, he can climb very well, better than all the other sprinters and has a strong team to support his ambitions, that can very well pass by the leader's jersey.
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