It was a gruelling day, the rain came out near the end and made for a very tense finale where in every descent there was a big run-up beforehand, the pace wasn't very high until the final climb where Astana really took up the charge and took the group to the limit, it came down to a sprint in the end where Davide Ballerini took a back-to-back win with another quality sprint, beating Giulio Ciccone in a close sprint. Alex Aranburu finished a distant 3rd.
Positive: Deceuninck rode all day long for Ballerini and took profit from it, a great team performance. Ciccone with a massive sprint taking some bonus seconds is also a great result, never have I seen him sprint so well!
Negative: A crash in the end took out Alexander Vlasov and Julian Alaphilippe, the 3Km rule was applied but the bruises can hurt tomorrow and hinder a better result. Mas didn't look his best but today also lost a lot of time.
The Route
The queen stage. I think what will happen is obvious, the stage is all about the final climb. All of the climbers will try to spend as less as possible until they reach Bédoin. The start of the stage is flat, the stage itself has some solid climbs for us regular people but the peloton will just taper through it. Reaching Bédoin the real race starts.
Chalet Reynard. In February I doubt the summit of this mountain is open, but the little Hotel/Restaurant based at this point of the Geant de Provence will surely be happy to see another finish right by it's door. The climb is brutal, wherever you consider the start of the climb it's hard, officially the 15.2Km average 7.3%, the final 10Km are at 9% average, a constant 9%. If you read this I don't actually need to describe the climb you already know it perfectly. No restbite anywhere, constantly steep, little slipstreaming advantage, pure W/Kg here.
The Weather
Unlike what was forecasted earlier this week it won't be freezing cold. It will be cold, but around 5 degrees at the finish. So it should be a calmer day weather wise, a slight northwestern breeze will be felt throughout the day but it shouldn't have much impact, the finish is just before the climb gets very exposed aswell so it's all about the legs.
The Favourites
It will be a really exciting finish and it'll be all about that final climb. Although it doesn't go to the summit of the mountain it's still a brute, pacing is important as it's a very constant climb and bravery can be rewarded as slipstreaming won't be vital. Pure climbers day, who are they?
Ineos is the squad bringing in the best pure climbers. No doubt in best form Egan Bernal would be the man to beat, I think he is carrying some solid form but has been drifting responsability away and I think the team may be primarily thinking of Ivan Sosa. Both are pure climbers and will love the raw steep gradients, the team definitely has the numbers to support their ambitions aswell, Laurens de Plus himself is another rider who on paper can be in the fight for the win but there are very little indications of his form until now. The other is Astana, Alexey Lutsenko is the leader, that seems set in stone after Alexander Vlasov today took a tumble near the end, he's gotten the same time as the leaders however the crash comes to acentuate the already existing idea that the team is prioritizing the Kazakh. Bahrain have gone under the radar so far but they have a very dangerous trio, Wout Poels is one who loves steep climbs, Jack Haig is one who usually enters the season in great form, same for Dylan Teuns who is confirmed in good form with his finish today and is a lover of steep climbs and cold/rainy weather, all three of them have a good chance of being up there in the winning moves, their strategy is something surely they'll only see whilst on the climb, but potential is there no doubt.
Trek have a strong duo, Giulio Ciccone has been looking absolutely beastly in these opening days and there isn't a single doubt that he's a top climber, alongside Bauke Mollema they will be two outsiders that need to be covered as they are quite the danger, Warren Barguil helped Quintana last year in this exact climb and this year he'll have new ambitions being the leader, I reckon he and Alaphilippe aren't riders for the win but they will be looking to test themselves on the climb and can always net a good result (I'm sure Alaphilippe will still give it a nudge despite the crash today). Then you've got some outsiders, AG2R have Paret-Peintre and O'Connor finishing strong today, Cofidis have Jesus Herrada who is one of the few active riders to have taken a win in this iconic mountain, Bora have Patrick Konrad who's done a good sprint today and is looking in-form. Lastly I'll mention Enric Mas, I wouldn't put my chips on him but he's a very talented climber and needs to be taken into account in a finish like this.
Prediction Time
⭐ Poels, De Plus, Herrada, Konrad
Going for an Ivan Sosa win tomorrow. He has finished well in the sprints so far, the team is protecting him and hints he'll be the leader tomorrow, as a lightweight pure climbers this is just the kind of climb he loves.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!
Comments