It wasn't exactly the exciting stage many of us were looking for, no breakaway fight meant little chance of it succeeding, and despite a brave move by Alaphilippe, Moscon and Ciccone the wind didn't turn out to be as decisive as it looked. It was a sprint finish between the fast men. Arnaud Démare started off his sprint early and would make it if it weren't for a surging Davide Ballerini to take an impressive opening win. Démare and Nacer Bouhanni completed the podium.
Positive: Deceuninck are here with their classics block to get some racing in, yet they managed to deliver a strong leadout despite burning matches throughout the day, Ballerini had a superb sprint. Schelling a nice surprise finishing 6th.
Negative: Mas lost 21 seconds, Ion Izagirre lost 1:07, some other riders that could contest the Top10 today saved their legs in the finale.
The Route
Stage 2 is one for the sprinters, or the puncheurs, or the rouleurs... It's an interesting finish that's what it is! In Manosque several riders will be eyeing a win, the dynamics will be interesting as the first half of the stage is mostly flat (despite the opening uphill kilometers that can motivate some riders into being agressive) but the second is much hillier.
With 34.5Km to go there's the Col de la Mort d'Imbert which includes most of the final ascent, and also with 17.5Km to go there's the Col Montfuron, another climb that isn't steep but gives another opportunity to put the sprinters under pressure. It should all come down to the final kilometers though, what will we find there?
A second time up the town of Manosque, the ascent is 2.7Km at 3.4%, not a brute, but an effort of around 4 minutes. The opening meters of the climb are at around 6% and the lenght of the run-up to the line and slight rise in the road will surely suffocate mate sprinters. The finale isn't technical having the final turn with 700 meters to go, the road does tilt slightly all the way up to the line next to the Parc de la Rochette.
The Weather
There will be some wind coming from southeast, it is moderate so it'll help the day's break throughout most of the day, the peloton seems like it'll narrowly avoid rain coming from the Alps, it'll be a cold cloudy day.
The Favourites
It's unclear how the stage will end up but seeing how today ended being so sprinter friendly I'd say tomorrow it'll be hard not to see that scenario once again. It's a rouger finale no doubt, but the climbs aren't steep and the final climb definitely isn't hard enough to shed some of the fast men, specially seeing how today's winner is a consolidated puncheur/climber.
Hence tomorrow there isn't one but two men to beat. First is Davide Ballerini, this stage is perfect for him, the rolling hills and the slight uphill finish are good for him, maybe he'd profit from a harder finale but he clearly had the sprint today to beat the best. The other is of course, Arnaud Démare. Démare can do these climbs well when he's in form, his leadout won't be working tomorrow but leadout won't be an important factor tomorrow. Nacer Bouhanni has been climbing real well lately and he will be one of the big favourite no doubt aswell, Clement Venturini and Aurelien Paret-Peintre will be two interesting riders for AG2R to try and get a win at top level, Bryan Coquard will again try to profit from his good form and try to net his first win of the season, Astana have Alex Aranburu but also Gorka Izagirre, Omar Fraile and Alexey Lutsenko who are riders quite capable to making a last-minute attack to succeed that must be covered, Ben Swift, Matteo Moschetti, John Degenkolb and in theory the UAE riders could have something tomorrow, but Kristoff didn't do well in his sprint and Matteo Trentin wasn't even in the peloton so I don't expect to see them tomorrow.
On the other side there are some puncheurs who may take advantage of those slight inclines, and will definitely want a hard race over the climbs in order to have some edge in the finale, be it in a sprint or a late attack. When it comes to those that can sprint Alaphilippe is the first name that comes to mind but he was totally at the team's disposal today, I expect the same tomorrow for Ballerini (but you never know with him!), Tim Wellens is in superb form and no doubt he'll be on the move there in the end, Delko have Fedeli and Ghirmay who will be eyeing their best opportunity of the week. That's about it, there are some more riders that can make those last-minute moves that may succeed, Deceuninck have several in Cavagna, Asgreen and Stybar.
Prediction Time
⭐ Venturini, Wellens, Ghirmay, Paret-Peintre, Coquard
Two for two? I don't see why not, tomorrow was the stage I expected to see Ballerini, he has already today, Deceuninck clearly seem willing and in form to help him do it and he is the strongest card for tomorrow.
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