Tour de la Provence Stage 1 Preview
- Rúben Silva
- Feb 10, 2021
- 5 min read
The Route
The opening stage is one that's very tricky, with 2500 meters of climbing it's far from flat but it's the position of those climbs that makes this a threat for the sprinters. The finish is flat, but the road to Six-Fours-Les-Plages, in the Mediteraneen coast, is very rugged.
The stage immediately opens up with the ascent of the Cold de l'Espigoulier. Just 10Km of racing and this climb is done, but the efforts to make it into a breakaway, the possible raids that can happen (it clearly worked in Bessèges!) will make for a very nervous start, with plenty attacks to happen, sure to split the race.
The other climb that is important to mention is the Montée du Brulat. It's far from the finish at still 70Km to the line, but it's one that's substantially hard. Wouldn't expect attacks from the riders pointing at the GC, but some teams have a clear and good chance to push and displace the pure sprinters. The road ahead is up-and-down so it shouldn't be hard to keep them behind the peloton.
From there on there are some little climbs, summiting with 49Km and 27.5Km to go, those will be the last points of the stage to push the pace and reduce the peloton. If it does come down to a sprint it's a finish that's, weird to say the least. The final dozen kilometers are by the coast and they are on a normal non-technical road with roundabout at 6.7 and 1.9Km to go, until then it shouldn't be a problematic run-up but the issue comes in the last final hundred meters.
This roundabout comes with around 250 meters to the finish. I'll be crossing my fingers for everyone to make it out unscathed, I'm not sure wether the barriers will lead the riders only through the right (big pinch point at massive speed) or both sides (dangerous road furniture positioned) but none sound good to me. After this roundabout it's a normal finish, by the marina.
The Weather
Strong strong wind from the northeast. It will be a dangerous, tense day. By the finnish the wind will be even stronger with constant 35Km/h wind throughout the day, most of the stage will be around the interior though where it'll be around 20Km/h, still more than enough to cause splits and make it a very nervous race. Over the opening climb there'll be a tailwind, and the same is seen in the last 35Km, with some sections with headwind, some with crosswinds.
The Favourites
The race will be wild I am sure. The uphill start with the tailwind right after will motivate and be very pleasant for those trying to make an early move, and will put the sprinters in serious dificulty and will also make it hard to control the race, there are some complicated climbs, several descents and also a long finishing section that will have mostly tail and cross-tailwinds. Put this in most races and it's a stone-set breakaway day. Here, it's harder because there are lots of sprinters with fully dedicated teams, the GC CAN be flipped on it's head as Chalet Reynard is the only chance for the GC men to make serious moves, but I won't say the race will be controlled, rather I'll say most will try to get in the front group. It's just a small February race for many of the big stars coming and they have nothing to loose.
Firstly though I will mention the sprinters, as the finish is flat and the stage isn't that hard, it would be unfair to put them in second view. Démare is the man to beat in every sprint stage essentially, he's got his full leadout but those are men that don't climb that well. Molard is the only real rider that can climb in his group but I doubt he'll wait if it's necessary early on the day, they will in every scenario have a tough time to control the race and will need help of other teams, that help could come from the likes of B&B Hotels who've got Bryan Coquard and from UAE who've got Matteo Trentin, these are the other two sprinters that have a team behind them and can cooperate to control the race. UAE have Alexander Kristoff aswell but it's a tough ask to see him get through if the race is attacked, joining him some riders like John Degenkolb, Nacer Bouhanni and Niccolo Bonifazio would love a weak group to get in front so they can resist and be in contention for the stage, which could also help with the chasing. Some others, like Davide Ballerini, Clement Venturini, Alex Aranburu and Ben Swift can all climb very well but they are in the 3 strongest teams, who will surely go on the offensive in the opening kilometers and if they get riders in front they will not chase.
As for the list of riders we could see going on the attack well that's endless to be quite honest... Not to steep gradients, February, highly dangerous wind conditions, it can be a lottery to end up in front, or it can be absolutely forced. Astana (Izagirre brothers, Fraile, Tejada, Lutsenko), Ineos (Bernal, De Plus, Dunbar, Moscon, Swift) and Deceuninck (Alaphilippe, Asgreen, Cavagna, Stybar, Vansevenant) will likely try to break the race right from the gun, they have every reason too and they have such depth that they will surely have riders in front. These hold the biggest power, but several other riders will be licking their lips with a start like this. Those that can solely climb, don't really have a sprint I'd put the Cofidis riders (Je.Herrada, Edet, Fernandez), the Bahrain climbers (Haig, Poels, Teuns, Mader), Bauke Mollema, Nicolas Roche, Rudy Molard.
You've understood by this point Im mentioned almost all of the big climbers/puncheurs in the race, but yes I'm confident the weather will motivate just about anyone to be as ready as they can to race hard for the first half-hour. The list then includes some big rouleurs like Tim Wellens who's just got a brilliant win in Bessèges, Cavagna who I've previously mentioned, Arkéa's Warren Barguil and Connor Swift, Delko's Alessandro Fedeli and Biniam Ghirmay, Bora's Felix Grossschartner and Patrick Konrad and of course AG2R with a diverse and in-form team full of quality riders for a stage like this, recent La Marseillaise winner Aurélien Paret-Peintre is one to take into acount, Geoffrey Bouchard, Lilian Calmejane, Ben O'Connor and Tony Gallopin will surely all have their individual ideas aswell. And don't forget recently signed Stephane Rossetto too, a great rider for a stage like this no doubt.
Rollers before the start and luck is what they all need tomorrow...
Prediction Time
⭐ Aranburu, I.Izagirre, Fraile, Swift, Roche, Calmejane, Gallopin, Rossetto
I reckon it's a day for a breakaway win. The fight will be long and hard, Remi Cavagna is an expert at this, he can surely climb with the best in the opening kilometers, has a brilliant team to cover moves, and if in front those final climbs and the long tailwind ride home are fit perfectly for him.
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