France has been the country kicking off this road season with a blast, and after La Marseillaise and a successful Etoile de Bessèges, the French races continue to benefit greatly from the cancelation and postponing of many others and Provence is no exception, having a big contingent of climbers ready to tackle the first big European mountains of the year.
The Route
The opening stage is one that's tricky and that promises some good show. It's a hilly day, one that suits the sprinters that can climb decently, but also a very good chance for breakaway opportunists.
The second stage is one for similar type of riders. It's one seemingly flattish but with some bumps that may cause issues to the sprinters, specially the final little ascent to Manosque which may be too much, and may allow late attacks or even puncheurs to sprint to the win.
This is the queen stage, obviously, Chalet Reynard was a climb full of fireworks last year and the startlist is even better this year, the leader after the finish should be the winner of the race.
The final stage is one that'll allow the sprinters to have a more relaxed day and one they know will be discussed between them at the start.
Weather for the Week
It won't be the warm relaxed racing some were probably hoping for when they chose to race here. Alternatives aren't many of course, but the week will be very cold in Provence, the first couple stage may be affected by wind heavily, the last two (including summit finish) should be very cold.
GC Contenders
Form is very important this week. Having a race in March or July is one thing where most riders come with their best form but one in February, and a lot of them having their racing debut after several months out training is a completely different situation. So every "big" favourite mention must be taken with a grain of salt because at this time of year the tables can turn very easily. So let's take a look into who they are.
Team depth is the first point to be mentioned, with last year's winner Quintana not back to defend his title, the other two members of the podium of that edition must be coming back for revenge, they are Alexey Lutsenko and Alexandr Vlasov who should be Astana's leaders together with Ion Izagirre, the Kazakh team is coming in heavy making sure most of their leaders get in good racing miles in. They have a lot of options, unfortunately for them the overall will be decided surely in a climb where slipstreaming does little effect and they may not be able to take advantage of their power in numbers, that obviously doesn't include just these 3. Ineos are also coming in with a very hefty squad, as you'd expect, Egan Bernal is on paper the leader, showing good legs in his return to racing last week and having a very suited challenge ahead of him, Ivan Sosa has been pointed out by many as the possible leader this week, it's sure that Chalet Reynard is also a climb that suits him very well but he's far from a complete riders and with the wind that'll hit the race it won't be easy for him. Debutant Laurens de Plus is also a very good option if he's got the form, only out on the road will this be decided. The other team coming in with big numbers is Bahrain, having 3 riders that will be dangerous and must be watched, it'll be interesting to see how they race together being different types of riders, nonetheless all are legitimate contenders for victory at the start line, they are new member of the team Jack Haig, Dylan Teuns and Wout Poels. Also Trek bring in Bauke Mollema and Giulio Ciccone, the previous started his season last week with a modest exhibition in Bessèges whilst the latter is starting out his season after what was an unlucky year tinted by illness.
The win should come from those riders. May I add Enric Mas to that list aswell because he is a top climber more than capable of winning. All others should fall in a list below, capable of a podium if the form is there, and some will fill up the Top10 and possibly net a stage win aswell. By no particular order they should come from AG2R a team coming in with some riders in good form, Paret-Peintre for one but also new additions Lilian Calmejane and Ben O'Connor aswell, Jesus Herrada and Rudy Molard who are coming in aswell leading the French teams, that should add some more responsability, although of course both these teams have divided leadership between the climbers and the sprinters. Bora have an interesting duo with Felix Grossschartner and Patrick Konrad coming in to lead, having an unusual leadership but one capable of getting results, although they would like tougher hilly stages (or easier mountain stages). There are some more outsiders, I'd like to point out some names like Valerio Conti and Andreas Leknessund, riders who have a lot of quality and won't (if all goes normal) have many opportunities to lead this year. Additionally there are two puncheurs who don't have a stage perfectly suited for them but will surely be in the battle, also possibly for the overall (or mostly to test themselves), they are Tim Wellens who's coming in with great form but doesn't have this time a race that suits him that well, and also Julian Alaphilippe, no introduction needed, I think overall probably isn't a goal but he'll want to test himself so everything is possible.
The Sprinters
In the sprinter field there's a dificult situation. There's the final stage that will surely finish in a sprint. The two first stages it's very hard to call it, both are hilly, both can see either breakaways, puncheurs or rouleurs succeed. Yet, there's plenty of fast men coming in with big ambitions of starting their season off with a win. Arnaud Démare is the most prominent name of these, he's coming in with his full leadout, in form he can definitely climb, he can surely leave the race with several wins, but... Some men are here to make sure that doesn't happen.
In the field of the pure sprinters there are some big names like Phil Bauhaus coming in with Wright and Haussler for solid support, Alexander Kristoff and Matteo Trentin who can target different stages, Kristoff has his Norwegian contingent coming in to support them, DSM's Max Kanter is another rider that can surprise, he's in a team that know what they do, although their big names are currently in training camps. Niccolo Bonifazio, Matteo Moschetti and Szymon Sajnok are two other names who've had very good results at times in the past couple years and can pop in at any time.
There are a lot of sprinters though who can climb very well, who have the capacity to do longer efforts and keep their sharp edge, that's where Démare's main competition will come from surely. Davide Ballerini is a name that doesn't strike many but I personally see him as one of the most complete sprinters in the peloton, has a very powerful sprint and can climb as well as most of the peloton at his best, and in a Deceuninck where plenty riders can be leaders, go on the attack, race agressively, it's something that can benefit the Italian greatly who must be coming in with the goal of getting a convincing win to establish himself in the team. Other from him you've got Bryan Coquard who is in great form, but somehow hasn't been able to convert that into a win in these last few weeks, there's also Clement Venturini, a very similar rider, he's coming in with CX form where he's got the national championships. In a situation similar to Ballerini is Alex Aranburu, in a really strong team that can help him in the hillier stages, Ben Swift aswell although he must have a role more as a domestique, Eduard-Michael Grosu for Delko (and even Biniam Ghirmay for the hilly stages), and also John Degenkolb coming in as Lotto Soudal's sprinter.
At the time I complete this preview, with less than 24 hours for the race to begin, Team Arkéa Samsic have not yet confirmed their lineup, hence I haven't mentioned them.
Prediction Time
⭐ De Plus, Haig, Poels, Teuns, Grossschartner, Konrad, Herrada, Mollema, Ciccone
Last year he took a win on his second day of racing at Astana right here in Provence, where his breakthrough season began. He's settled himself already as one of the best climbers in the world, and he can start off the season off very strong, with such a strong and diverse Astana I think they'll take the win and the Russian will be their main card to play.
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