An historical day is the best way to describe today's stage. Just the first mountain stage of the race but it is one, baring any major incident, meant to be won by Tadej Pogacar who absolutely dissolved the competition and took hold of the yellow jersey. The stage was won by Dylan Teuns, after joining the breakaway which only took off after halfway through the stage, after seeing the likes of Van Aert and Pogacar joining escapee groups early on, the rain made it an horrific day for everyone and Teuns was the only breakaway rider who managed to escape the vicious attack of Tadej Pogacar who attacked on the Col de Romme, easily distanced everyone and then powered away to build a gap of over 3 minutes on his direct competition. Ion Izagirre and Michael Woods rode in his wheel and sprinted to second and third on the day.
Positive: Pogacar annihilated the competition and now has around 5 minutes lead over his direct competitors, safe to say that only 8 days into the race he's already paved his way into the win. Teuns with a massive win too, Van Aert with a brilliant performance despite his huge effort yesterday, keeping his second place confortably.
Negative: Thomas expectedly dropping out of GC, Latour/Higuita/Alaphilippe/Fuglsang/Porte/Kruijswijk/Nibali/MA.Lopez/Hamilton/Buchmann could still have ambitions to do so but after today are also completely out of it.
The Route
Round 2 in the Alps promises. It's a brutal stage, I think the final ascent will end up blocking up the stage but I can assure you that opportunities come aplenty to split the race hard. With the gaps still relatively small there is a lot of room for surprise, the start in Cluses is flat but if it all stays together until the first climb of the day there will surely be early damage.
The Côte de Domancy is quite explosive, it's a brutal little climb most recently used in the Dauphiné where it created absolute chaos in that day. The same can happen, tactical moves can be made and it will be hard to keep everything together, although the categorized climb is just 2.6Km long the climbing goes on for another 6Km at 5% into Megève. And there won't actually be any descent, the riders will stay riding in the flat and then climb the Col des Saisies which in itself is another opportunity to stretch things out, steep climb at points and a technical descent.
The Col du Pré/Cormet de Roselend combination is the final place for a raid to occur, the descent after Roselend is very fast and has some sktechy sections, but the climb of Pré is really what can blow it up, an HC climb with respect with it's final 6Km averaging almost 10%, there's only a tiny descent inbetween, and Roselend finishes with 51.5Km to go.
Tignes is a ski town where some of the teams in the race regularly had altitude training camps, it's being climbed from Bourg Saint-Maurice, from the base, and it's quite long climb with almost 21Km of categorized ascent. It's not very regular, I would say it's essentially a climb of two halves, with a valley road up in the first, and the final 7.5Km are the hardest where we should see the attacks, with some hairpins and bigger gradients to impact the race. The climb itself finishes with 2Km to go, a flat run-in to the line will follow.
The Weather
There will be a western breeze throughout the day, slightly strong gusts, generally a tailwind throughout the day, and as for the rain the forecast is quite bad, maybe not as bad as today but rain is expected once again, in the latter part of the stage.
The Favourites
Well today was quite a stage wasn't it? Pogacar is in the yellow jersey, no-one came even close, nobody will be attacking with the intention of taking time on him, that's just not happening, everyone will be thinking of the podium already, as directly they won't be able to do more than that. And with how the stage went I also wouldn't say there are many riders having attacks in mind, most will want to just stay safe and in contention, maybe only Ineos will want to put van Aert under pressure and also have Richard Carapaz attack and finale capitalize on his obviously good form.
This means a breakaway win again is very possible, if Pogacar doesn't go wild again that is. No-one should be wanting to chase, and not only were there plenty of world-class climbers already hunting stages, after today there will be even more having that goal in mind, and with Domancy early on (and of course, everything that follows) it will be very hard to prevent a strong group from going.
You should expect some of the big hitters of today to try again tomorrow such as Michael Woods and Ion Izagirre who didn't have issues with the rain and were pretty close to the win, the likes of Guillaume Martin, Mattia Cattaneo, Nairo Quintana and Wout Poels were also active all day long and tomorrow is another day for them to go look for a stage and also points for the KOM classification, which is starting to take some shape, we have some big riders who have lost time today on a rough stage but can get back tomorrow with much better legs as they've now gotten some good freedom like Miguel Angel Lopez, Sergio Higuita, Jakob Fuglsang, Julian Alaphilippe, Pierre Latour, Bauke Mollema, Esteban Chaves and Lucas Hamilton. Omar Fraile and Patrick Konrad have been looking really good so far and are also good cards to play, and you never know is someone like Primoz Roglic - who'll be riding on familiar roads - can feel better and give it a dig, and of course, why not have Dylan Teuns go for it again?
GC fight will also occur, Wout van Aert and Jonas Vingegaard will be riding defensively for sure as they want to keep the situation just as it is but there will likely be an agressive aproach, well from anyone who has the legs to do so, but that is most likely riders like Richard Carapaz and David Gaudu who are sitting 6th and 9th and definitely have the legs to do more than that, and have to gain time as they still have another time-trial to deal with.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#84 Jacopo Guarnieri - Survive! You stay with Arnaud, it's going to be a really hard day in the saddle and you've gotta help each other make it to the finish, he's likely going to struggle early on so make sure you can get him in the grupetto, and from there on stick with it until the finish.
#47 Jasper Stuyven - Day to save up Jasper, tomorrow is the rest day and right now what we need is recalibrate and get ready to start hunting stages. Bauke and Vincenzo have ridden well so far but yesterday they lost all chances to fight for GC, so today I want everyone to come in the grupetto, except Kenny or Julien who can try to get in the breakaway, you stay with Mads until the finish.
#37 Michael Woods - Mike you did brilliant yesterday, so close to that win! Today the goal is the same, rest day coming up so today it's time to give it your all once again, the weather will be bad again, will suit you, the descents won't have as much impact, and with a summit finish you can get that win, you've been saving up all week to have the gas for these stages. Just make sure you have your timing dialed, you stay in the middle of the pack until Domancy. No decisive move will be made until there, we can have Rick and Reto also near the front controlling things a bit, don't spend any energy there, in Domancy things are going to split and there you stay in the front, it's short and steep so you'll love it, but don't go crazy over the KOM points, first goal is a stage win. There will be guys going for it, you stay in the big groups when they sprint for the points, make sure you enter the descents well positioned, specially the Cormet Roseland one, and in Tignes is where you'll spend your bullets, but don't go crazy like yesterday. Keep it controlled throughout most of the ascent, the stage will be decided in the final 8 kilometers and until then don't attack alone, make sure you have some time in the wheels, when you get there then make your move if you have the legs, don't hesitate on going for a sprint if you've got someone slow with you.
Prediction Time
⭐ Carapaz, G.Martin, Quintana, Teuns, Fraile, Alaphilippe, Mollema
He's gotten to the KOM jersey today and, despite having missed his goal of fighting for the GC, he has fitted in his new goal well, and I'm sure that tomorrow, if he avoids the unnecessary energy waste he did today, he can go on and take a brilliant stage win, 3 for 3 for Bahrain!
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