It was one of those days, the breakaway prediction was right and a rider in that list of 13 won! It was a classic Pyrineen day with a breakaway win by Nans Peters who crossed Port de Bales in front and later took a gap on Zakarin which he kept to the line, Skujins and Verona finished second and third. In the GC group it was an exciting stage but with little gaps, with the exception of Tadej Pogacar who took 40 seconds on the GC group which is a massive move! Lots of attacks came but the main men came home together, Thibaut Pinot though suffered and sadly had to give in on the GC fight, likely still suffering from the effects of the crash on stage 1.
Positive: AG2R looked super good with a stage win and Bardet still snatching some seconds on the GC contenders, looking sharp! The big winner of the day though is Pogacar, after his big loss today he recovered almost half of it, looked powerful and was lucky not to be marked in his decisive attack. Yates and Bernal both struggled but kept their places safe in a hard day. Porte I have to say was a nice surprise, finished in the reduced GC group.
Negative: Jumbo after all, they looked good but didn't capitalize on it, and Dumoulin loosing time on the overall certainly wasn't on their plans for the day. Carapaz and Buchmann at their best could be fighting for the win here, but today took another step down in the rankings (they actually climbed in the GC but lost time to their rivals). And Pinot of course, rough rough day, he's still in the race but his ambitions will completely change if he intends on continuing in the race.
The Route
Stage 9 is the queen Pyrineen stage, and it's positioned before the rest day so this one yes it's in the ideal place for big damage to be made. Or at least, there will be for sure intention to do so.
The Col de la Hourcère is really hard and a proper climb to start off the day, similar to the Alpe d'Huez in terms of profile, it comes far from the finish but it is hard enough to shed the peloton a lot, the Col du Soudet quickly follows and a valley run then leads the riders onto the final climb.
This is the Col de Marie-Blanque, 7.3Km at 8.7%, the final 3Km are at around 12% it's a brutal ascent and there will be attacks in there. Everything after this stage can be more clear, the top level riders look very even but in such gradients there won't be any place to hide!
It summits with 18,5Km to go where then a slight downhill will cement those gaps or maybe some riders will be brought back, and lead to the flat finish in Laruns.
The Weather
There is an evident change in weather throughout this race that will continue tomorrow. We've had lot of rain, heat and tomorrow will be cold and will be below 10 degrees at the top of the big climbs for sure. There's also little chances of rain, or damp roads.
The Favourites
The main questions revolve around wether a breakaway can succeed again tomorrow or not. Although first thought is no, today the breakaway easily gained over 10 minutes in a matter of an hour of racing and with Mitchelton still in the lead nothing tells me that can't happen again. There will be more riders willing to go on the move, but at same time the teams are more fatigued. But there are some hungry riders that will look to go on the attacks though...
And after seeing today Tadej Pogacar smash the record on the Peyresourde (view @faustocoppi60) I'm prepared to eat my own words on him being almost out of the race for the Tour win. He can, today he convinced me he can he was the strongest rider, benefited a bit from the marking in the big group but had some legs! UAE don't have a strong team though so it won't be easy to make damage in the peloton, he could very well make an alliance with Roglic and Jumbo as we have seen in the past, and as would be of great benefit to both, it could've happened today if it weren't for Quintana following their move. Quintana is looking really really good, although he's lost Diego Rosa today he will be looking forward to tomorrow as the Marie Blanque is a climb that suits him very well. They, alongside Roglic and Jumbo will be the teams looking to push the pace, Roglic hasn't yet won time on Bernal on the road and they will be under pressure after today sacrificing Dumoulin for Roglic's benefit.
Lopez, Landa, Guillaume Martin and Uran will be on a neutral place, Landa will want to attack but we're unsure if he can go with the big moves, the other three are in the same place, they have brilliant legs but will rely more on opportunity to gain time on their rivals, or be able to follow the main moves and hang on for life. Bernal will for sure want a more slow race, I believe he's still on the rise, Ineos are far from their best level and he doesn't have good support for now so he'll want to limit any damage, today he climbed well and tomorrow he'll want to save it again so he can gain some more form in the coming week.
Breakaway chances, I reckon there are, they have to be considered that's for sure and after today it becomes a bit more clear the riders that aren't interested in the GC. Alaphilippe for once, looked evident that he didn't have the legs and sat up in the Peyresourde, however in a brekaway he obviously won't find such tough competition, tomorrow isn't an ideal day but he is still a strong climber. Groupama same position, Pinot will want to rest but his domestiques are now stage hunters and there's lots of quality specially on David Gaudu and Sebastien Reichenbach. Tiesj Benoot has been saving himself and may go on the hunt tomorrow, as has Pierre Latour, Alessandro De Marchi and Davide Formolo (this one maybe not) who have finished on the grupetto today clearly eyeing the coming days.
With Bora, Movistar, Astana, EF and some more rogue riders there can be the opportunity to go in a break with the idea of getting a stage win and at the same time possibly helping a teammate bridge across, so there can be lots of movement early in the day.
Prediction Time
⭐ Bardet, Landa, MA.Lopez, A.Yates, Schachmann, Gaudu, De Marchi, Benoot, Latour
After seeing him ride today this is my call. Although I thoroughly believe a breakaway can succeed, Pogi is on fire and tomorrow in the cold and possible rain, it favours what would already be a main contender, confidence must be through the roof and I expect him to ally with Roglic.
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