The race was turnt on it's head! On the eve of the first mountainous day the race has exploded, with non-stop action from start to finish on an extremely long day. From the start the fight for the breakaway was immense, eventually a group of 29 got clear, having the yellow jersey Van der Poel in it, Wout Van Aert, Vincenzo Nibali and a whole host of premium rouleurs present. Matej Mohoric was the first attacker still far from the finish, and sure enough he brutalized the day, riding incredibly well all the way to the finish, having had the company of some more riders who he dropped on the final climb. Jasper Stuyven finished second, and Magnus Cort won the sprint in the chasing group that included van der Poel and van Aert, who are now first and second in the GC. In the peloton it was an equally big day, as UAE took up the responsability of chasing all day long, Primoz Roglic was the one dropped on the big climb and lost 3:48 to the GC group, and an explosive attack by Carapaz who was caught by the peloton in sight of the line.
Positive: Van der Poel, keeping his lead on a big GC raid, Mohoric taking an incredible and gutsy stage win, you could argue Van Aert and Nibali will have benefited in a possible GC challenge but it won't be easy to see it come together.
Negative: Jumbo seemed to be the big winner from the day but suddenly they became the worst affected. After seemingly having recovered from his crash, he absolutely bonked today, likely out of the possibility of taking the GC home.
The Route
The race enters the Alps, early on this year as it's the first mountain range on the menu and it is one set to start off in an impactful way. This stage features 3500 meter of climbing in just 151Km of distance and it features a very hard finale. Unfortunately that will block the stage - which is a situation we'll sadly find on all big mountain stages - but it is set to be an exciting one, the start features a reasonably hard climb that will surely see a breakaway go off and as the riders sweep through the valley roads they will arrive at the trident of ascents that will see the climbers battle it out face-to-face for the first time.
The Côte de Mont-Saxonnex by comparison doesn't look that hard but recgnition must be given, a full 6Km at 8% summiting with 47Km to go, should see the grupetto form and the climbers warm up for the decisive climbs.
Based on history the big differences can be made here actually. The Col de Romme is a relentless ascent, long and constantly steep. The climbers will have their first real challenge and we may see some in serious trouble which can be seized, but even if not it's one that usually is quite explosive, and should see a very small group over the top with just 29Km to go.
A fast and technical descent will lead them to the foot of the final climb which is the famous Col de la Colombiere. It's not as explosive but it should see some attacks, specially as bonus seconds will be given at it's summit and from there on it's straight down into Le Grand-Bornand, summits with 15Km to go.
If you're familiar with the finale in Le Grand-Bornand though you will know the sprint to the line will be hard, it's a false-flat grind into the line at 3%, it will be quite hard after the repeated massive efforts.
The Weather
A small breeze, that may be stronger in the mountains, from the south which can be felt as a headwind actually on the final two climbs, also earlier in the day, but it shouldn't have a meaningful impact. However the forecast is quite threatening with around 80% chance of rain since 12:00 local time. The signal is clear, it is very likely that the riders will face rain in the latter part of the stage, the descent after Colombière isn't very technical but will be high speed.
The Favourites
It's a big mountain day. It's a shame this year only two stages will be in the Alps and both have their biggest ascents towards the end, so raids are very unlikely, however you should still expect quite a lot from this final sequence. It's a sequence of climbs that would be much better off earlier in the stage, but that's a personal opinion of course, Romme is very explosive, and Colombière is a climb more suited to pace. However what we'll surely see isn't a paced race but an attacked one, UAE buried themselves completely today and after crashes also affected their team in the opening week they are set to be attacked tomorrow by Ineos, who despite having lost Hart as a GC card, still have Porte who can put some pressure if he's a part of an early move with someone else from the team. Thomas is likely going to struggle and loose time the way he's been riding, however it's clear at this point that Richard Carapaz is the card to play, and he will be on the move tomorrow no doubt. Pogacar seemed to be having a bad day for the team but in the end ended up winning quite big with Roglic's fade, he won't have much of a problem with Jumbo now and can focus on Carapaz who should be his main rival, and we'll surely see a big battle between them tomorrow already if nothing weird happens.
But the fight will include many others, some that are still well within the GC fight and with big ambitions, others that have lost some time and will be looking to attack to make time back. Although sometimes it may not seem like it it's still the first mountain day, where on a regular Tour we would be understanding who would be in the fight for the win and the places below, so although the GC is already quite changed there are some jokers that we don't know yet what to expect, like Julian Alaphilippe for example, who should have a hard time in the hard climbs, like the Astana riders who in theory didn't come with GC ambitions but are both sitting well, Alexey Lutsenko and Jakob Fuglsang, Bauke Mollema is in the same situation where on paper he's here for the stages but it can develop into more if the race goes smoothly, we have Pierre Latour who's been riding well so far but is always an unknown in whichever terrain we ride, then we have some riders who have shed time in the time-trial mainly like David Gaudu and Esteban Chaves who already have to start their stint in the mountains trying to recover the losses, Miguel Angel Lopez is in the same situation but not only did the TT take time from him but also crashes did, Movistar's main card will be Enric Mas who should do well in the climbing-packed stages. Then we have Wilco Kelderman, brilliant on the opening weekend, very bad in the time-trial, Jonas Vingegaard who turned into Jumbo-Visma's leader today, leading a team that has been struck with tons of crashes since day one and are in the absolute unknown, with Van Aert in a good overall position but with no idea over what he can do, with Roglic having a time loss and unclear on his roll, with Kuss and Kruijswijk slightly injured and absent so far, and Vingegaard himself has been a victim of several crashes until now. And finally we have Rigoberto Uran (and Sergio Higuita) who have been so far away from the crashes and riding a consistent race, they could do quite well tomorrow, I'm expecting that. Also, how far can Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel go? The yellow jersey fight is likely set to be between them!
As for those who will be eyeing a breakaway in the possibility of a breakaway win the list is also of very high quality. Adding to the win, the real KOM fight also starts tomorrow which will motivate more guys into making sure they're in the right move. Again, it's the first mountain stage so there is still the need to calibrate how these guys are doing in the real mountains, after a set of quite dificult stages. However there are some that have their aim straightly pointed at stages such as this, you might've spotted Nairo Quintana shedding time today and that's no by chance, for sure the Colombian will be amongst those trying to infiltrate the first moves of the day, helped by a rare uphill start. A strong group of climbers can get a gap right at the start, would expec the same from mainly Michael Woods and Dan Martin who will surely be having the same result in mind, Ion Izagirre who's also been riding a conservative opening week and will love the rainy conditions, and then we add a list of riders like Guilllaume Martin, Aurelien Paret-Peintre, Mattia Cattaneo, Kenny Elissonde, Patrick Konrad and Alejandro Valverde who likely will be having similar throughts in mind.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#116 Magnus Cort Nielsen - The win was in sight today mate, you did good, you'll have a couple more stages you can target on the coming weeks but what we really need today is to support Rigoberto and Sergio. What can they do? We don't know yet, but we will find out, besides them no-one is looking their best so you have to stay with them for as long as possible. No pressure to work, Ineos and Alpecin will take care of that, you stay with them for as long as you can, help out where possible.
#171 Soren Kragh Andersen - Great effort today mate, don't forget last year, target some stages, rest on the others. Today we rest up, stay with Cees and help him get through the mountains, next week you'll try again.
#87 Valentin Madouas - Valentin it hasn't been an easy ride so far but the important thing is David hasn't shed any unnecessary time. The TT's won't do him good but he's been riding really well so far. You're his right-hand man, stay with him for as long as you can, others will do the work, if he drops you drop, just give it your all to give him the best chances of having a good stage as possible.
Prediction Time
⭐ D.Martin, G.Martin, Cattaneo, Lutsenko, Mollema, Chaves, Mas, Kelderman, Vingegaard, Uran
I think a breakaway win is incoming. After such a brutal day the GC teams will try to take it a bit easier, except Ineos very likely. Yet, the uphill start will allow a strong group to go, the rough weather will favour it, Michael Woods is my call to take the win in Le Grand Bornand.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!
Comments