In a rather major contrast to the last few days today was full of activity. The day started with Bora pushing from the gun that managed to dislodge many of the main sprinters, and they pulled all day long to control the race until crosswinds and some punctures caused havoc in the peloton with some GC riders loosing time, it came down to a sprint in the end with Wout van Aert beating Edvald Boasson Hagen and Bryan Coquard in the sprint.
Positive: Jumbo, gaining time on some of their rivals, taking a win, they did very well and looked calm and composed today. Some GC riders managed to stay afloat in the front group remaining safe from what was a nervous day. Van Aert and Coquard took this day superbly when it comes to the points classification as Bennett didn't score and Sagan scored very little.
Negative: Sagan, having the team work all day, not scoring in the end due to a dangerous sprint, very disapointing from him. Pogacar and Carapaz lost 1:21 due to badly timed puncutres, very very unlucky. Landa however alongside Porte and Mollema failed again and lost time, Trek had Stuyven in front who didn't wait so there's some weird chemistry there.
The Route
Stage 8 is the entrance in the Pyrinees. Glorious, however sadly they did it again they put a hard mountain stage with no summit before a brutal mountain stage. What does that mean? Breakaway no doubt, 100%.
With 82Km to go we find the Col de Menté, it will warm things up a lot, it's a hard climb and it's steep, everyone will know what to expect after this.
Then comes the Port de Balès one of the most iconic Pyrineen climbs, it's hard, it's quite long and not very constant with several steep areas in the begining and middle of the climb, before the final 5Km going around 9%, and it's summit is with 36.5Km to go and antecedes a fast and technical descent.
Then finally there's the Col du Peyresourde, that gradient in the map isn't accurate in the end obviously, but it's a hard and constant climb, a classic Pyrineen grind, let's see if there are attacks or if the GC riders save themselves for tomorrow, it summits with just 11Km to go before the descent to Loudienvielle.
The Weather
Lower temperatures, mild breese coming from the northeast which means a tailwind for most of the stage including the Port de Bales. Peyresourde is very exposed and should have a crosswind from the right, shouldn't trigger but riders on the attack have a solid support.
The Favourites
Well I said 100% but maybe I'll tone it down to 95%, with Pogacar and Landa loosing time today we've finally got riders who need to attack the race. Problem is Bahrain is racing with a rider less, one injured and two that don't look on form, and UAE also don't have that much support they can give Pogacar. Jumbo should manage to control them easily but they may want to attack if they see fragility in Bernal which is possible. However stage 9 is important, and tomorrow should see most GC riders save themselves as Peyresourde isn't a climb that can see gaps appear easily.
So we can of course consider the climbers, hard day today but there may be some options of attack from Pogacar and Landa mainly, aside from them it's still hard to tell who is better than who but Jumbo the ones to beat, so they'll like that Yates is still in yellow as he's the one who's got the responsability. Chasing on that big flat part of the stage shouldn't be in the plans of anyone, so breakaway it is, but who?
Breakaway roulette time!
AG2R - Peters
EF - Carthy, Martinez
Movistar - Soler, Cataldo
CCC - De Marchi, Zakarin
Astana - I.Izagirre, G.Izagirre
Israel - Hermans
Direct Energie - Sicard
Sunweb - Benoot, Hirschi
These are the riders that can be in the breakaway and win. If the level is inferior to this probably it's a break that will be caught, if it includes one or more of these riders for sure it has chances of making it. Like yesterday, the start is flat, so lot of powerful riders can go up the road and help a lot in the break's chances. There haven't been ton of riders yet loosing serious time so there's some riders that may be inbetween the GC and stage ambitions, but some have made it clear and have also shown at least some solid legs, others good legs. This is a strong list with quantity and quality, I thoroughly believe tomorrow will smile to one of these 13 riders.
Prediction Time
⭐ Pogacar, Hirschi, Martinez, Cataldo, Zakarin, I.Izagirre, Sicard
For me, tomorrow is a day for big Hugh! He's got some good form going on, he should have freedom if the team is smart as they have Powless and Martinez to support Uran (and Higuita if needed), Carthy has the power to get in the break even on a flat day and he's no doubt got the legs to fly in the climbs.
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