A fast day for another sprint stage, a wild breakaway early on caught many by surprise and was close to being the one deciding the stage, but Groupama worked hard to reel it back, to no gain, as in the final sprint it was a repitition of the last sprint where we had Merlier leading out Philipsen and Mark Cavendish taking advantage of that to win the sprint, in front of Philipsen and Bouhanni once again. Win number 32 for the Brit, van der Poel kept his lead.
Positive: Cavendish and Deceuninck keep bringing in the profit from their amazing preparation work for the sprint.
Negative: Nothing to note.
The Route
A transition stage if you can ever name one! The longest day of the race, so long in fact that it's made for a lot of writing on it ever since the route was reveiled, which is a nice change to be honest, long stages definitely belong in Grand Tours, and although I don't think GC fight will be kicking off, we may see some surprises, endurance will play a big role when it comes to the stage in the very least.
The first 150 kilometers are pan-flat essentially, the last 100 are hilly as the peloton will go into the Morvan Massif and the race will be suited to the puncheurs, or the sprinters who can climb if there aren't any big attacks going off in the ascents. With 35.5Km to go we have the Côte de la Croix de la Libération that will open things up, it will be in the next and main climb that the race will blow up though.
The Signal d'Uchon is obviously the highlight of the day. Far from a constant climb, has a descent in the middle. The main body of the ascent are the final 1.6Km that average 11% gradients, there will surely be a big leadout battle into the base of that pitch, which is on a narrow winding road that maxes out at 18%.
It summits with just 18Km to go which isn't that much, specially taking into consideration that most of the run-up to the line in Le Creusot has a lot of downhill inbetween.
The riders will still have the Côte de la Gurloye to deal with, a 4th category ascent that finishes with just 8Km to go, it's not as steep but that can allow sneaky attacks to go off that will be much harder to chase down, specially if you find a rouleur going solo off the front.
Rolling roads into town, they will be quite fast. The final 1.5Km will essentially be the finishing straight, slightly uphill which can be vital into chasing someone down, or even allowing a last-minute attack to possibly succeed, as there won't be any big peloton going up these streets in chase of a win.
The Weather
The temperatures will be rising, confortably inside the 20's, may be a sign of the weeks to come. Nothing special though, with a small southern breeze aswell.
The Favourites
There is no need to be big on this for tomorrow so here's how the stage will be quick and to the point. There will be around a third of the peloton looking to get in the breakaway. There is one scenario where Deceuninck and Alpecin will join forces to chase and try to get their men Julian Alaphilippe and Mathieu van der Poel into a new win, which is possible as they should like the distance and also the very explosive finale. On the other hand, judging by how we saw them attack today, it seems rather unlikely that they'll do so, as realistically which team wants to chase on a 250Km day on the opening week of a Grand Tour? That's what I thought.
So even though it's a grind of a day for sure tons of riders will be thinking of what may be the first successful breakaway and they will, despite the flat start which doesn't favour those who climb well, be firstly fighting hard to go for the break. Secondly, the distance can see some big surprises occur, the finale is hard and those who can climb surely will have room to attack, however with the flat start and rolling hills towards the end, those who specialize in the flat and slightly hilly stages will also have a very good chance of succeeding. Just so happens that this is the Tour, and plenty teams are here hunting for stages, so this list is of massive size AND quality:
UAE - R.Costa
Movistar - Cortina
Trek - Bernard
Bora - Postleberger, Schelling
Cofidis - Herrada, Perez
Alpecin - Meurisse
EF - Guerreiro, Cort, Valgren
AG2R - Cosnefroy, Godon, Naesen, Paret-Peintre, Peters, GV.Avermaet
DSM - Benoot, SK.Andersen, C.Pedersen
Lotto - De Gendt, Van Moer
Bahrain - Mohoric
Astana - Aranburu, Fraile, I.Izagirre
Qhubeka - Campenaerts, Gogl
TotalEnergies - Turgis
Intermarché - Vliegen
B&B Hotels - Pacher
The list is big you got it... The climbs can be decisive, however attacks on the flat roads can succeed aswell, hence why I couldn't shorten it much.
This is of course if the breakaway succeeds, which isn't a given at all I must say. With the form we've been seeing, if attacks come from the big men on the ascent we can very well see the likes of Tadej Pogacar and Primoz Roglic get involved, many others surely but they will be covered the ones who are targeting a win, riders like Bauke Mollema and David Gaudu surely very fit for such a finale, others that are out of GC contention like Michael Woods could also be looking to attack the race. If a sprint would come to happen the likes of Wout van Aert, Michael Matthews and Sonny Colbrelli are definitely very dangerous men.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#32 Guillaume Boivin - So Guillaume for tomorrow we have a long ass stage and one where we don't want to burn too much energy. Omer and Reto should be trying to join the break, but it's not a day where we can realistically succeed, best is to stay in the bunch and wait to see how the stage pans out, if the break sticks than no worries, drop back when the pace kicks on in the climbs with the guys, on the weekend we try to strike. If it seems like the breakaway won't succeed than we will try to help a bit in the chase, Mike is sadly out of GC contention but the stage suits him decently actually, and I want him to have a dig in the big climb, those gradients are good for him, he doesn't pack a sprint so if he's feeling good he will attack, your job is to make sure he enters the climb well, if there is chasing necessary the guys will do it, you have shown great form in the Dauphiné and I want you to prove you should be here as you took the seat from some big guys.
#172 Esteban Chaves - Esteban amigo, sit up near the back, it'll be a long day so just try to enjoy, chat with the guys, chat with your buddies. When stuff gets serious make sure you stay near the front, everyone but Simon will be there, if the break doesn't succeed Michael has a chance to go for the stage so if the opportunity comes do help him (if most sprinters are dropped and he feels good). If it goes for a break just stay with the GC guys, no need to spend energy, if it's for the peloton but Michael is crushed than do the same, this isn't a day to win but one to conserve.
#44 Bauke Mollema - Great race so far Bauke, riding under the radar, doing your thing, I like it. Remember the goal here is to get a stage, GC may be a goal but if the opportunity arises than don't be shy of having a dig. Some of the guys will be trying to get on the break, if it sticks than you sit in and make sure you just don't loose time, if the win comes from someone in the peloton you do you, you've won San Sebastian so you know perfectly how to ride this kind of route, it's a sit back until Signal d'Uchon, there get to the front, save your bullets to the steep section, there try to follow wheels, no doubt it will be brutally attacked. Your chance is then on that little climb after, after a big move just slide away seemlessly like you do so well, you're a master in solo moves, do your magic and try to repeat that big win!
Prediction Time
⭐ Schelling, Perez, Herrada, Godon, Paret-Peintre, Naesen, C.Pedersen, Fraile, Turgis, Pogacar, Roglic
I'm a firm believer that in cycling if you deserve a win and hit the post several times, you will always strike that win shortly after. Brent van Moer has been incredibly impressive this last month, not only does he have the pure power to get in a break he also has the climbing legs that few riders his weight have. A solo win incoming for the young Belgian?
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!
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