Stage 7 was won by Alexey Lutsenko, after some confusing stages in the past few days where there was meaningless chasing that didn't happen today, a strong break went up the road and Lutsenko was the strong in the Col de la Lusette, distancing Jesus Herrada who finished second and Greg van Avermaet who finished a strong third, back in the peloton nothing happened and the GC remains the same.
Positive: Astana getting their win out of the way already, Lutsenko will surely be happy to help Lopez with no second thoughts from now on, and Ineos who tried to slow down the race and managed to get away with it.
Negative: Nothing to note objectively speaking.
The Route
Stage 7, you guessed it, another tricky sprint stage. The organizers really pulled out all the stops to increase breakaways' chances of succeeding in this opening week, I gotta say I don't mind that! This is another stage with a rolling start that can see a big group fade away, but the second half of the stage is favourable for the sprinter teams to push through the straight roads of Southern France.
The Col de Peyronnenc is the final of the sequence of climbs in the stage, it isn't hard but it's long and will drain the sprinters quite a bit.
I'm not a 100% sure because it doesn't quite look real, but I've guided through the maps and this finish looks rather awkward, on first sight it looks like a safe finish but zooming in on the roads we see the road leading up to the final kilometer is rather narrow and then in the final meters we find this roundabout, literally in the final meters, even if there was a bit of a mapping mistake and the finish is a bit forward it still makes for a dangerous finish.
The Weather
It will be a nervous day, although no-one tried anything in the crosswinds yesterday except Ineos in a little pitch, tomorrow provides another opportunity, wind won't be as strong but will be a moderate consistent drag from the southeast, meaning for a constant cross-tailwind throughout most of the day.
The Favourites
The weather favours it, this is a good day for a breakaway despite being the Tour.
Deceuninck will be fully focused in reeling it in, specially as Sam Bennett has his sights on keeping the green jersey and wants maximum points, Alaphilippe isn't in yellow anymore so I doubt they'll be saving themselves as they have done the opposite so far. Lotto don't have many riders but Sunweb, NTT and maybe another team or two could come in and help in necessary, they could also send someone up front but Deceuninck has been doing that and they don't really have fresh riders at this point that could do something except for Jungels, so they chase!
Now if the finish tells us something is that positioning will be crucial, a tailwind sprint means starting off the front is a good idea, and a technical one means the exact same as Sunweb did yesterday, they look like the most dialed leadout so far so I would have Cees Bol in very high regards for tomorrow, also as the team doesn't have the pressure to chase as the other two have. Bennett will have to be in front if he's fighting for the points jersey so no doubt the team and him will be extra focused on the job, and as for Ewan it's the old saying he's only been in the battle for the win once so far and he was clearly the fastest man, but he's gotta get himself up there to be able to fight for the win and there he's not been doing good.
The rest they gotta get themselves up there, Viviani hasn't looked neither strong neither dialed with his leadout, Kristoff doesn't have a leadout, Trentin/Coquard/Mezgec have had good chances but clearly lacked the power, van Aert has gotten his win and I doubt he'll be putting himself up there again (at least not tomorrow), Trek have looked good but they have to make sure they have a set sprinter and make use of their power they're usually one of the best teams when it comes to leadout but in the last few stages they haven't done it right, Sagan will be up there but the old question of speed comes up I doubt he has it to fight for a win in a flat sprint, Hofstetter and Bonifazio are two wildcards who could surprise.
Prediction Time
⭐ Jungels, Sagan, Kristoff, Pedersen, Nizzolo
I know you must be thinking why so few stars? But that's how I see it, the win can't come out of those names no-one else has shown to be capable of taking a win (except WVA), the top names will have to be in front, the lower names will hope for a lucky shot. The best mix for me is Cees Bol, he's hit the pole twice but he is good, very good, and Sunweb are punching quite the leadout for him, tomorrow is his day!
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