It was a sketchy time-trial with rain spurts inbetween but they didn't affect most of the stage contenders who still had a great battle, in the end though, surprinsgly (or should I say not surprising at all anymore) Tadej Pogacar took the win with a big gap over Stefan Kung and Jonas Vingegaard. It certainly was a big day for the defending champion as he deals a big blow to the competition before the mountains.
Positive: Pogacar winning the stage, being in a perfect GC place and taking big time on all his rivals is without a doubt the big winner of the day. Van der Poel keeping yellow is another massive surprise, finishing 5th on the day.
Negative: Bissegger affected by the rain, SK.Andersen with a disapointing performance, Alaphilippe, Thomas and Kelderman with a poor performance on terrain that should favour them.
The Route
The French plains will have quite a lot of stages this year, no surprise why this is called a somewhat traditional route, with a lot of stages early on designed for the pure sprinters with no intentions of putting obstacles in their way.
Tomorrow is another one of those, the roads to Châteauroux are completely flat, it's a day that doesn't offer much except for a relaxing ride (if the wind doesn't blow) and a thrilling sprint finale.
This one will be through the town though, it won't be safe with some roundabouts as they enter the urban space, the speeds will be extremely high as everyone will try to be well positioned and organized for the final corner with 1.7Km to go, it's a long way to the finish from there so experienced leadouts can definitely capitalize, the roads are wide enough to make last-minute moves but in a Tour de France peloton you can't afford to make a single mistake if you want to net a bunch sprint win.
The Weather
Tiny chance of rain, judging by the forecast though it probably won't come as the rain seems to just miss out everyday, or if it shows it has very little effect. The wind though may, exposed flat roads all day long, there's a northwestern breeze all day long, enough to be felt, and with the solo ride we saw yesterday we come to terms that an elusive breakaway win may come if there are good riders and a good strategy up front.
The Favourites
It's another bunch sprint incoming, surely the sprinter teams won't be risking like yesterday to almost miss out because of an elusive breakaway, the conditions are dangerous tomorrow and they must be on their toes on who goes in front. There will be teams focused on bringing it back though, two at least or are fully focused on stage wins. Alpecin also has the yellow jersey so naturally they'll be riding in the front, they have the chance to take another stage win as their leadout has been working really well on all stages so far. On the last finale Jasper Philipsen was given the freedom but failed to capitalize on it in the last sprint, surely Tim Merlier will be back on the helm and will have a very fast finale on the menu that should work well for the heavyweight sprinters. Alongside him I would expect the likes of Cees Bol, Arnaud Démare and Mads Pedersen to have a much better chance to contest for the win, something so far none of them have been close to.
On the other side you have the rising Mark Cavendish who from the start looked to have the form and finally capitalized on it in the last sprint, the Deceuninck leadout is a brilliant and experienced one even within the best and his chances of taking another win are good. The lightweight sprinters have been doing really good in the race so far, Nacer Bouhanni is another good example, close to a win twice, he'll be trying to strike once again tomorrow, he's been having a really good Tour so far.
Then you have whole reliable Peter Sagan who'll be on the hunt for points, not a great possibility for a win but always for a top place, and you'll surely have Wout van Aert targeting the sprint tomorrow finally, as he said so himself. Outsiders are expected in Christophe Laporte, Danny van Poppel and Andre Greipel, the latter should like the non-technical aspect of the stage finale, Michael Matthews is still looking for the green jersey so for sure we'll see him too in the sprint.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#96 Anthony Perez - The first few days were quite hard for you, the KOM jersey is still a possibility for you so just keep your powder dry, stay in the back of the peloton with Guillaume and make sure you don't put on hard work, that will come later in the week.
#87 Valentin Madouas - Thought is on the stages later in the race Valentin, the team is going to work hard both to protect David and then to launch Arnaud, hopefully for a win. Stay with the block throughout the stage, ideal is that you don't work, but if it starts to get dangerous make sure you always stay with David until the final kilometers and keep him as well positioned as possible.
#122 Dorian Godon - Tomorrow will be a good day for you to hit the breakaway big guy, but today rest up. Unless there's a strong group going up the road it's not going anywhere, however stay in front in the neutral start, see who's there, if you've got some strong rouleurs talking about making a move than do make sure you join, we have the team to play that roulette in stages like these.
Prediction Time
⭐ Philipsen, Pedersen, Sagan, Laporte, Van Poppel, Greipel
I mean yeah, Tim Merlier for me is without a doubt the strongest and most consistent sprinter in this race. He worked for Philipsen in the last sprint and it didn't work out, this one will be fast and straightforward, ideal for him, and he'll take the win.
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