It was a very weird day in the Tour, the epytome of the lack on interest on breakaways familiar to the race happened as no-one took it up. Literally no breakaway on a flat day, I think I've never seen something like that happening. Made for, let's say, an interesting day, the wind was there but no team tried to split it up until the finale in a short pitch where Ineos tried to blow it up, and they were very close but it all came together, and the sprint was very simple ith Sunweb leading it out, Bol was close to the win but he was beaten by Wout van Aert. Alaphilippe has lost the lead due to an illegal bidon in the final 20 Km.
Positive: Sunweb doing a superb job to position Bol, van Aert already getting his win under the belt, everyone else was just on the side really.
Negative: Alaphilippe loosing that time completely unnecessarily, Ewan failed to position again and failed to be in the fight for the win.
The Route
Stage 6 takes the riders to the Massif Central. And it's a rough entrance, most of the stage is flat but then it becomes quite hard. It doesn't look much on the profile but there's some rough gradients!
The Col des Mourèzes will warm it up for the Col des Lusettes which is around 12Km at 7%, it is quite hard in it's bulk and can be the place for some attacks
After that there's a very short descent so then they go up to mont Aigoual for the finish, on a longish but shallow climb. There's no streetview information of the final 4.5Km but the image shows the road isn't exactly smooth, of course it doesn't make much of a difference but adds a bit more resistance to the riders, and it will be rough after what they've previously climbed.
The Weather
Shallow temperatures and no wind tomorrow, should be a normal day.
The Favourites
I think everyone is split 50/50 over if tomorrow is for a breakaway or not. I could understand why it could be, it's a flat day and no GC team would want to burn out their team to keep it in control specially as the end is fit for Jumbo and only Jumbo pretty much. But at the same time, yesterday was for a breakaway but Deceuninck burnt themselves, and Mitchelton brought a team where they have Bewley/Bauer/Juul-Jensen who's sole job is to protect on the flat, and in this case I think they won't mind burning a rider or two, I mean just because really. For sure no GC threat will go up the road and there's not many chances Yates can win but they'll feel the responsability.
Jumbo want to control the race, to be in front just as Sky did in their prime years, and they're clearly the strongest team for the climbs (even if Bennett doesn't look his best), they'll be in control in Lusettes, no-one will attack them (with success at least) so it will be paced out, everyone will for sure be on the defensive and then in Aigoual it will keep being a rough tempo, I wouldn't be surprised to see another last kilometer dash for the win (or sprint behind), the power of Kuss is intimidating for everyone else and he's here just to work.
Breakaway really is a roulette, lots of riders can take a win if they get there, but they should have at least 4 minutes in the bottom of Lusettes for sure, it depends on who will actually want to shoot their shot tomorrow. As for the favourites hard to go around Roglic, in fact he could take yellow tomorrow as he really has 0 weak spots and seems the strongest in every field, so the question is who can hang on if they decide to push on. Quintana, Bernal, Pinot, Landa and Yates they'll all be defensive, they're experienced and they know that everything going normal they can't overthrow Jumbo, those who will move (if anyone does) will be either Pogacar who's said to have it in mind, Guillaume Martin who is visibly in great form and doesn't have the reputation to be marked (which is good for him) and Miguel Angel Lopez, all agressive riders.
The Tour is long, it's 21 stages long and the decisive stages will be from stage 15-20, so most GC contenders will just save as much as possible until then and will try to follow the wheels as much as possible.
Prediction Time
⭐ Pinot, Landa, Dumoulin, MA.Lopez, Quintana
I believe Jumbo will make it 3 for 3 and probably take yellow along the way, only a bad day can dethrone them but I don't see that happening, at least not yet. I think breakaway will end up controlled and Roglic will sprint for the win again.
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