Mark Cavendish has completed his incredible season-long quest where everything seemed to have clicked perfectly with a stage at the Tour, the 31st of his career. In what was a calmer day for the peloton the sprint finish was threatened quite a lot by the remarcable breakaway of Brent van Moer, who was dramatically caught already inside the final sprint, Alpecin leadout Philipsen but the Belgian was beat by Cavendish who came from behind, with Bouhanni finishing third again.
Positive: Cavendish and Deceuninck pulling it off.
Negative: Démare failing to contest for the stage, other than that nothing to note, luckily everyone stayed upright today.
The Route
A big individual time-trial early in the race before the gaps are made. This is a big difference in relation to the last years' menu of the race, in these 27 kilometers gaps will be made and they can be significant.
It's not a pan-flat time-trial, in the roads of Pays de la Loire the time-trialists will be the men to beat however they will have some little ascents in the route specially in it's start, will be a route where tactics are important as it's somewhat irregular and blowing up too early is a serious risk.
The Weather
There will be a slight breeze from the west, it shouldn't make much of a difference as the route is essentially a loop around Laval, but it should make for very fast speeds specially in the first two thirds of the route.
The Favourites
This will be a very heavily disputed stage no doubt. Not only do we have a yellow jersey that is very likely going to switch hands, you've got a big GC fight that will be secondary to the stage itself that's got most of the world's best time-trialists ready to come here and strike big! But if you are to name someone above everyone else it'll prove an impossible task, we've got 5 names who are set to fight for the stage win if nothing weird happens. Firstly we have the two Swiss stars Stefan Kung and Stefan Bissegger, representing Groupama and EF. Judging by how well Stefan Bissegger has evolved the last couple years and the quality of his results has been this year he almost got the upper hand in this internal duel, however Stefan Kung has recently put his foot down by winning the Tour de Suisse's flat time-trial and later taking the TT NC. But the battle isn't closed between them, you've got afterwards Wout van Aert who has been riding into good form, although I think he's not at 100% he's clearly at the level required to win this and he'll have the motivation that comes from the possibility of racking up the yellow jersey at the end of the day. Sandwiching the Belgian is another couple of Danes, Kasper Asgreen for a start who's reckoned tomorrow's stage earlier this year and has put a lot of work into his TT, has a massive engine and should like the little bumps on the route, and the other is Soren Kragh Andersen who is perhaps a tiny bit below the other names but would be no surprise to take the win, specially as the route does suit him quite well too.
Then you have the fight for the GC. Obviously I won't mention every name as that wouldn't add much to the preview, however you have some riders that, probably won't be targeting the stage win but will want a place in the Top10 but above all, put time into their rivals in what is the first stage that was designed to make differences between the GC riders. But there will be many questions, specially when it comes to how those that have crashed these last few days will be doing. Tadej Pogacar hasn't had a perfect run so far but has avoided crashing, don't expect a TT like the one he did last year however he is for sure going to be riding really well and trying to put in some time on his two main rivals that on paper would be shoulder to shoulder with him, or perhaps taking time on the defending champion. Geraint Thomas dislocated his shoulder yesterday, and although it was fixed surely it's far from an ideal run-up to a time-trial where the shoulders will be used quite a lot. And the same can be said with Primoz Roglic who had a ton of road rash, both he, Steven Kruijswijk and Jonas Vingegaard could all be wildcards for the stage, having a dab at a strong GC position entering the mountains but the crashes have so far took a huge hit on the whole Jumbo team, and not only are they injured but they're having to make up time at this point. The Yellow jersey for the day should be to dispute between van Aert, Alaphilippe and van der Poel. Van der Poel is a brilliant rider but this is not his speciality, no doubt he can pull off a great performance but it will be a very tough ask for him to keep it, and Alaphilippe, despite having won a TT in the Tour in the past, won't be close to repeating that tomorrow, but can get his yellow jersey back if he can withstand Wout van Aert's attack. Besides you've got riders like Rigoberto Uran and Wilco Kelderman who can do a brilliant time-trial and have so far been riding under the radar and have escaped the big crashes that have affected a lot of the peloton, the same can't be said of Richie Porte but the Australian will surely try and reel back some time on the GC contenders and try to still be of good use for Ineos' possible strategy with numbers.
Furthermore you've got some men who can surprise and bump into the fight for the stage, for the Top10 in the very least as you've got some serious talent and the route does offer terrain to surprise. Between some climbers who can TT seriously well you've got the likes of Brandon McNulty or Mattia Cattaneo, McNulty's teammate Mikkel Bjerg who is also on a slow trajectory upwards in the peloton, you have Bruno Armirail who can be characterized as a rouleur, the small guy Victor Campenaerts who shouldn't really have any big focus on the stage but you never know if he can surprise with his past abilities in it, Christophe Laporte who has quite often ridden massive TT's despite being a sprinter, and two giants in Max Walscheid and Jonas Rutsch who should feel every uphill bump in the route but on the flat sections they can truly power their way into the big league.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#45 Mads Pedersen - Good job yesterday Mads, the result came up a little short but it wasn't an ideal finale for you, you showed you're over the Dauphiné injuries and that the leadout is working well, more opportunities will come. Today keep it calm, just make sure you come in inside the time-limit.
#16 Tony Martin - Tony how's the arm doing? Alright good, on normal conditions you could maybe test out your legs today as you got a great win in the NC's couple weeks ago but ever since you were clotheslined by a "fan" saturday it's best to just find a way to do the TT in a confortable way. Take it easy, focus on the next days where you have a lot of work to do, ask to adjust the bars if needed, we're at your disposal.
#203 Jérémy Cabot - Jérémy you know the drill, take it easy but inside the time-limit, you've got some long breakaways ahead of you!
Prediction Time
⭐ Pogacar, Roglic, Thomas, Alaphilippe, Cattaneo, Bjerg, Walscheid, Uran, Kelderman
It's a very hard pick, but I'm going with Wout van Aert to win the stage and take yellow. His training was somewhat delayed because of a surgery in May and I think we're not seeing him 100%, yet he did try to save his legs for tomorrow, and when I think of consistency he's above all of his rivals. He's got the pure power, the ability to go over those small hilltops, the motivation and the bike he needs to win this.
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