It was a day that went according to the script where Deceuninck chased down the early breakaway and then Jumbo took a flier in the final uphill looking to set it up for Roglic, it was a finale full of tension as always in the first summit finish of the Tour, few were brave enough to try and escape the peloton and we saw a ramp-up of the pace that slowly shedded most of the peloton and left the climbers to sprint it out for the win, where Roglic easily took in front of Tadej Pogacar and Guillaume Martin. Alaphilippe held onto the group and retained yellow.
Positive: Great performance from Guillaume Martin, tried to surprise there in the end and still managed to grab some seconds as a reward, also good performances from Chaves, Porte and Bardet who managed to stay with the front group.
Negative: Buchmann lost 9 seconds, Carapaz and Higuita lost 28 seconds. These aren't serious blows when it comes to the big picture, but Carapaz's loss is very bad for Ineos who already aren't looking good, if Carapaz doesn't step up his game until the Pyrinees the team is in deep trouble as Bernal also looked unable to respond to Roglic.
The Route
Stage 5 is another opportunity for the sprinters however again the'll have their work cut out for, the stage isn't hard but there's some slight gradients in the end that will go all the way until the Flamme Rouge. It's the first stage west of the Rhône and it's in the Ardèche area.
The riders will have some slight climbing until the flamme rouge, it won't be easy for some sprinters to have that sharpness with these gradients here to sap the legs of many.
The finish then is a little technical with a roundabout with less than 500 meters to go, it's rather flat and in a exposed area that could see the wind become a vital part of the sprint.
The Weather
A stage following mostly a western trajectory, so get ready because that means echelons!!!
There is a strong northern wind tomorrow most noticeably around the Rhone.
The most dangerous spots are the exit of the town of Espeluche (~44Km to the finish) and Montélimar (~32Km to the finish). Crosswinds will be strong, although these pictures are from 2014 I believe they are quite exposed, and after leaving Montélimar the riders will go over a big bridge and taking the wind at it's strongest. So from 45 to 29Km to the finish it will be a very nervous and fast race, after that section it's mostly a headwind to the finish, so the teams' jobs are to get over that area safely.
The Favourites
This is a sprint stage but not an ordinary one, the wind is only factor but the finale ain't flat either it has some little hilltops. The first one comes with 15Km to go and the final one goes pretty much all the way into the flamme rouge, it won't get any gaps but it will suffocate some of the sprinters for sure.
Now let's imagine there's crosswinds, some GC teams like Jumbo, Ineos, Mitchelton and Trek have the experience and the power to keep at least one leader safe in front, I don't have questions on them. Trek have a trio of big powerful riders with Mollema and I just see them trigger a move, Deceuninck I don't but they have perhaps the best team to be on the offensive aswell. What I know is that there are pinch points in Espeluche and if there's a team interested in blowing up the field it can happen right after so getting there very well positioned will be vital, some riders like Quintana for example are really good in crosswinds despite not having a good team to protect him, but for the GC riders mostly it'll be a day to keep it safe.
Some sprinters won't like the possibility of echelons I would say Ewan is one of them, some won't like those pitches near the end but I must say that Ewan, Bennett, Nizzolo are all riders that should be able to pass them very well but they've not looked to have good climbing legs, yet they should remain the big favourites. Bennett perhaps mostly, his leadout should be very suited for this finish although today the whole team put on a mighty effort to stay in yellow and they will keep controlling the race. Ewan and Nizzolo they have to survive the little uphills and have the legs for a top sprint, it won't be as messy as usual so positioning shouldn't be as hard to nail which could help out Ewan who usually struggles to be in top position. Kristoff and Bol are also heavyweights who don't usually thrive uphill so they don't really have any advantage there.
Some of the riders who could like it are Trentin and Hofstetter for example, both looking good and they both have those climbing legs that are needed for tomorrow, Sagan obviously aswell, he isn't looking as sharp in the sprints as he used to but it will be a finish to his liking, Bryan Coquard and Luka Mezgec could also be very interesting names to consider for tomorrow, Clement Venturini and Sonny Colbrelli haven't been in the sprints yet but they could also give it a good shot tomorrow, and yeah from the Trek boys it depends on how the day goes, I reckon they'll be all-in to protexting their GC riders and maybe giving it a nudge, but if it all comes to a normal sprint then they could be there, Stuyven will love the finish but the other two should be the options although I don't know if they'll like the uphills or not, as they used to be really good rouleurs but have been transforming more into sprinters. Also, Elia Viviani!
Prediction Time
⭐ Trentin, Viviani, Coquard, Colbrelli, Hofstetter, Bol, Pedersen, Theuns
I'm going with a win for Ewan. I want there to be some crosswind action, but there's a good chance it'll mostly remain compact, although he hasn't looked like it (I don't know why) Ewan can climb well for a sprinter, and the rougher finish will mean that he's less likely to be boxed in, the speed he showed yesterday was impressive so I expect him to repeat the job.
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