The stage was anything but calm just as I foresaw. Although the rain luckily didn't end up having much effect on the stage the crashes were without a doubt the highlight of the day, sadly. The stage was on by Tim Merlier, one of the few sprinters that escaped the carnage, beating his own teammate Jasper Philipsen and Nacer Bouhanni in the sprint. Van der Poel remains in yellow, however most of the GC contenders crashed today, with riders like Roglic, Pogacar, Thomas, Lopez and Haig involved, the latter abandoning, as did Caleb Ewan after crashing with Peter Sagan inside the final sprint.
Positive: Merlier's win, the only positive to come out from the day. Alaphilippe and Carapaz managed to make the front split.
Negative: Honestly it was a shit day of racing, there's no hiding it. Countless riders were affected badly by the crashes that happened within the extremely dangerous run-up to Pontivy, and I would imagine very few people actually enjoyed today.
With that said the losses can be numbered here: Pogacar/Higuita/Gaudu/Mollema/Uran/Thomas/Buchmann/Porte +26, Roglic/Lopez/Kruijswijk/Vingegaard/Bilbao +1.21, Haig DNF. Some were affected by crashes, other caught in pile-ups.
The Route
Bunch sprint finish number 2. There isn't much to say about tomorrow, it'll be a short and fast stage through the northwest of France, there won't be any climb on the route and the exposed roads may be the biggest dificulty the peloton will have during the day.
It will once again be all about that finale. Luckily they aren't dangerous, the riders will have a relatively safe aproach to the line as the finale just outside of the town of Fougères will be made solely through main roads, wide with only a few roundabouts to make it stretch out. However, the final turn will be very gentle just inside the final kilometer but it does seem like a pinch point will be present, it also seems like the final kilometer will be somewhat narrow.
The Weather
Northwestern breeze throughout the day, head and crosswinds throughout the day, shouldn't make much of a difference, will naturally make it very hard for a breakaway to get any meaningful gap.
The Favourites
Well where to start, firstly the abandon of Caleb Ewan will turn the tables quite a bit as the man to beat is no longer the Australian, Arnaud Démare crashed and it's unknown how he'll be feeling, and Wout van Aert (at the time I'm writing) may soon get news that will change his ambitions throughout the race that can see him focusing on the sprint finishes (although I'm aware he's mentioned that until the TT he won't be sprinting). From these Arnaud Démare should be the only one fighting for the stage, although he's missing some of his leadout already. Peter Sagan also crashed, although it didn't look very bad you don't know how he'll feel tomorrow, and if this scary accident will take a toll on his confidence.
The only leadout that actually worked today was Alpecin's. I mean the leadout wasn't actually in front, but Philipsen (who himself can win if he's the one the team works for) and van der Poel were there and despite his injuries the Belgian easily took the win, definitely he's a big contender to take some more wins, specially judging how well the Pro Continental team has been riding. From the remaining that managed to navigate the finale Nacer Bouhanni was the only one to actually have a strong result to show for, Sonny Colbrelli perhaps also got some important points for the green jersey fight if he still has interest, Davide Ballerini finished fourth but he shouldn't be Deceuninck's option, Mark Cavendish couldn't navigate through the hectic bunch today and that's not a good sign for the next nervous sprints we're set to have. Cees Bol and Sunweb seemed to do really well but in the end the Dutchman couldn't get anything from it, tomorrow is another opportunity.
The technical nature of a Tour sprint is rarely going to favour Andre Greipel but he's a name that will always need to be mentioned in these flat sprints, from the names that have been completely absent today you could surely expect Mads Pedersen to be in front, having an experienced leadout, Danny van Poppel is also coming with big ambitions and I'm expecting him to be near the front aswell. There are some more men that could be there with some luck but I doubt they'll want to take the risk, Michael Matthews, Christophe Laporte and Alex Aranburu are some examples of it. Bryan Coquard won't be suited but surely he'll try as that's really the best thing he can do in the race, Luka Mezgec should also be a wildcard as BikeExchange should change their sprint ambitions to him.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#105 Jasper Philipsen - Jasper, incredible work yesterday! Tim's got the win, Mathieu kept yellow, you guys did brilliant and the pressure is off our shoulders. Nonetheless now, enjoy the rest of the race, and try to reel in some more wins if possible. For today discuss with Tim who goes for the win, but let's assume he's going to go for it, it's the safest option, his pure power will be very well suited for this finale. Today luckily won't be as dangerous, wide roads, some roundabouts, you've got some engines that will seriously help you both, don't hit the wind, stay in the wheels of Silvan and Jonas, Mathieu surely will give a hand aswell, trust them to deliver you into the final 500 meters or so, if they don't make it there stay around the 5th wheel, lead Tim into the final 400 meters and when he decides to kick it you can lay off the power. If it all goes well we win again.
#76 Nils Politt - No chasing today Nils, Peter has barely gotten any points so far and although it shouldn't make any difference, we shouldn't burn energy chasing today, allowing the other teams easy points. Peter has to get back, if he feels recovered from his crash yesterday of course, he doesn't ever need much of a help with positioning so your job alongside Lukas is to have him and Daniel well in the front of the peloton from 10-5Km to go. You guys are pure power, they will take it from there and try to bring it home.
#173 Luke Durbridge - It's going to be a day to recalibrate, Michael doesn't have it to go for the green jersey, Lucas has been loosing time in the GC. Things haven't been going perfect but they're not too bad aswell, your job today is to keep Esteban and Lucas safe throughout the stage and then help out Michael and Luka in the end. I know this may seem like too much but you can handle it you're a big guy, the job is to leave both of them in good position in the final kilometers, they'll decide between themselves how to ride the sprint, your job is to give them the possibility to do so.
Prediction Time
⭐ Sagan, Bouhanni, WV.Aert, Van Poppel, Ballerini, Greipel, Mezgec
His win today was easy, not only will his confidence be high but the confidence on most of the competition will be down with today's disastrous sprint. Alpecin have been doing perfect leadout jobs, but besides that with no Ewan on the race Merlier is the rider with the fastest sprint.
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