In a calm day into Sisteron there was on one side a quite boring stage, but with two situations that marked the day the first one being the abandon of Anthony Perez after he went into the breakaway and a crash he suffered after coming back from a puncture. From there on it was a calm stage in pursuit lone chaser Cousin, and in the end it was amessy sprint with no team taking control, the headwind made it profitable from those coming from behind especially Caleb Ewan who started his sprint from the back and slalomed his way into the front for an impressive win, beating Sam Bennett and Giacomo Nizzolo.
Positive: Ewan taking a much needed win for Lotto who've lost several staff members and two riders (through different reasons), Hofstetter also with a strong surprising sprint.
Negative: Perez's abandon obviously, nothing more to note.
The Route
Stage 4 symbolizes the entrance in the Alps. A weird race structure, I know, but that's what we're getting. It may not be the first, but for sure it will be an interesting stage finishing with the first summit finish of the race.
The finish in the Orcieres Merlette ski town isn't a hard climb, it's around 10Km at 6%, not an easy climb but very constant and won't create gaps between the favourites, however bonifications will for sure be in stake so there will be moves in the end.
No you won't see this much snow when the race goes by, but the climb has a lot of hairpins and you may see some riders fall from the sky like snowflakes. It's an important stage to see how the legs of the winning candidates are.
The Weather
There's a little southwestern wind, I would say good weather conditions for a possible breakaway, in the final climb it won't make much of a difference, I said there wouldn't be snow but it will be quite cold at the top, around 12 degrees, and today has had a storm in there and it's freezing cold overnight, the GC riders have to be careful not to be caught by the bad weather consequences.
The Favourites
In a normal scenario I would consider this a breakaway stage but after seeing stage 2 I doubt there will be freedom, some teams are full and are willing to work hard for wins so far, and I reckon Deceuninck want to keep yellow on their shoulders, Alaphilippe for sure will have the legs to keep it as long as Yates doesn't fly over him, so i think they'll try to keep it in close contact (also because the team has resources to chase).
There's lots of riders that could take a win if the escapees are successful, however the list is just too damn huge, not only of climbers but I reckon some puncheurs that can pace can also have a chance so you would just have to go with who will want to attack in the first place. But regarding a peloton finish, which I think is the likely outcome for tomorrow, it should be a climb ridden at a very high pace by Jumbo in it's majority, with a suffocating pace that won't let anyone get a meaningful gap, and then some attacks in the final kilometer will decide it, it may even come down to a sprint as far as I know.
So, I can simply name all the riders but let's be honest if you're reading this you already know all of them, so I'll write some thoughts that I have regarding tomorrow's finish in some scenarios. As I've mentioned I think no far-out attacks can be successful, the level of the domestiques in here is so high that you can't really go anywhere, so last kilometer moves will suceed aka punchy climbers. Now, Roglic and Bernal can always take a win, they will be lookin for bonus seconds and they both have strong sprints, Roglic has Dumoulin who doesn't have a very strong sprint but he can engine his way to the finish if he has a gap, and Bernal has Carapaz who's won in Pologne in the way I'm describing, as he's done in the Giro last year. Riders like Buchmann, Landa, Quintana, Martin aren't explosive enough for this finish but can be thereabouts looking to stay safe.
Pinot would love this finish but I don't know how he is of health, it is cold though which he will appreciate, Pogacar and Higuita the youngsters are also very explosive and can through a bit of a surprise, Miguel Angel Lopez isn't going to like a suffocating pace but he's one that likes these constant shallow gradients, riders like Valverde and Lutsenko aren't the first ones to pop to mind but if they hang on they can have a saying in the finale. Then there's the wildcard Adam Yates, I warned he was bluffing, he's definetely got some form since the Dauphiné and his sprint for the bonifications over Quatre Chemins yesterday debunks his "sole focus in stages" quotes. Also, it isn't that hard of a finish, considering the puncheurs in Alaphilippe, Schachmann, Hirschi is in no way a long shot, Hirschi I still have some reservations but the other two can with no doubt climb and then profit from their explosivity there in the end, beware!
Prediction Time
⭐ MA.Lopez, Dumoulin, Valverde, Schachmann, Mollema, Quintana, Buchmann, Landa
I'm going with a Carapaz win, I was reluctant of his presence in the Tour due to his Pologne crash, but he has looked good so far, he will be one of the freshest riders coming into the final meters and he's showed some times that he can even in slightly shallow finishes that he can create that gap despite not being pure-power type of rider.
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