Wout van Aert confirmed his peak form and took the win on the final time-trial of the race in a convincing way, thriving in the rolling and very hot route to take the win in front of Kasper Asgreen and Jonas Vingegaard.
Positive: Wout should be extra motivated after this one as the Olympics draw near and he looks absolutely on fire. Some good performances by other riders today but the GC saw no move actually.
Negative: Nothing to note.
The Route
The final day, it was a long race and it has the classic sprinter finish to wrap off the biggest one.
The classic finish, no surprises, although the finish line is some hundred meters after the classic one, shouldn't make a difference though.
The Weather
Moderate to strong northeastern wind, could make for an interesting stage but here the exposed sections will be ridden in a celebratory rhythm, and the finale should be completely covered from the wind.
The Favourites
The story of the stage shouldn't be too complicated, Mark Cavendish vs everyone else. It is clear by the way Deceuninck rode yesterday that they weren't going to try and win the stage (in the logic way) but here they have a stage much easier to control, one where they can confirm green jersey and help Cavendish to a record that should be very important for him, and as the most dominant sprinter in the race still standing he is sure to give it a go to try and get it, and the Belgian team's experience should be quite valuable to help him do so. Although teams like Alpecin, Trek and DSM could and should go on the attack and put pressure, I think eventually at least one or two will help it come down to a sprint, in the latter two you have Mads Pedersen and Cees Bol who on paper should love this finale but have shown no evidence of being able to take a sprint home here, although I'm certainly open for that to chance, and Alpecin have shown a very consistent Jasper Philipsen who will give it another go. I also expect Israel to help out if needed, they clearly wanted a sprint yesterday and worked to keep everything compact, they don't have any rider who could succeed on the attack so their best chance is on what should be a very motivated André Greipel as he goes for his last ever Tour de France sprint, one where he's won twice already and knows how to repeat it.
Besides those you'll definitely have Wout van Aert, just off the back of a convincing win today, he's got his best form back and definitely has a good chance of adding another stage to this edition, and then you could expect some powerhouse sprinters like Christophe Laporte and Danny van Poppel to be present in there aswell, and maybe hope for a surprise in the top places by someone like Michael Matthews, Sonny Colbrelli or Ivan Cortina.
Attacks are to be expected though, in the last years the trend has been of attacking the race, these are sure to come as soon as the riders enter the circuit, and likely we'll see some in the final kilometers aswell, everyone will be praying for a very fatigued Deceuninck that won't be able to respond to everything, and there will be plenty of riders, like in stage 19, that will still be trying to profit from their great powerhouse abilities.
Trek - Stuyven; Theuns
Bora - Postleberger
Alpecin - Dillier; Rickaert
EF - Rutsch
AG2R - Godon; Naesen
DSM - Eekhoff; Pedersen
Lotto - Van Moer
Bahrain - Haller; Wright
BikeExchange - Durbridge; Juul-Jensen
Qhubeka - Walscheid
TotalEnergies - Turgis
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#91 Guillaume Martin - Guillaume you did really well I'm proud of you, the route really didn't suit you this year and as we had discussed GC wasn't a goal, but you avoided the crashes, attacked in the mountains and stayed consistent throughout, to have finished 8th in a route like this is very big!
#75 Daniel Oss - Daniel, I know Peter isn't here but we still have a chance to try something tomorrow, Deceuninck will try to be all over the peloton so it won't be easy but you and Lukas specially can try something, last few years the peloton hasn't been shy of attacking the final stage, there are a lot of quality rouleurs that are coming out of the race without a win and for sure they'll try tomorrow, if you see some dangerous attacks going as we enter the circuit make sure you stay there and try to infiltrate a good group, it's unlikely but to have the chance to win on the Champs Elysees is worth a crazy attack!
#18 Jonas Vingegaard - Great job Jonas, enjoy that champagne and the podium tomorrow, never would I have expected you to be there when we brought you, next year I'll make sure you have more opportunities like these, for now just enjoy the achievement!
Prediction Time
⭐ Bol, Pedersen, Greipel, Laporte, Van Poppel
There are plenty of arguments as to why Mark Cavendish is the man to beat tomorrow, which is true, but I am sure the finale will suit better the powerhouse sprinters, the way he's riding and with the lack of a serious leadout fight tomorrow, I think Wout van Aert will take the opportunity and make a hattrick of stage wins.
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