Chaotic as always the opening stage of the Tour is, this year more though! Two massive crashes were the highligts of the day unfortunately and saw some GC contenders miss on the front splits loosing quite some time, when it came to the stage the final climb was attacked hard from the start and when Julian Alaphilippe launched his explosive move still on the steep section of the ascent there was nothing anyone could do, the World Champion did an incredible solo onto the win and took the yellow jersey, with Michael Matthews and Primoz Roglic leading the chase group home.
Positive: Honestly everyone who survived without crashing or being caught out in the splits, it was an incredibly dangerous day.
Negative: Lots of GC contenders loosing important time today. Hamilton 30 seconds, Lopez/Kruijswijk/O'Connor/Buchmann 1:31 minutes, Porte/Meintjes/Poels 2:08 minutes, Valverde/Hart 5:25 minutes, Woods 8:41 minutes, Kuss 16:21 minutes, Soler 24:30 minutes. A tremendously costly day in the GC race. Of course not all of these admited GC ambitions, but you never know how the race would flow.
The Route
Stage 2 is essentially a repition of stage 1, yes really. The stage is overall a bit less hilly with 2100 meters of climbing, most of the stage is indeed flat but the finale is slightly harder. However, the same riders will be in front and fighting for the stage, the day consists of 184 kilometers and will be decided with the double ascent of the Mur de Bretagne.
The first passage through the finish will take place with 15.5Km to go, but no-one wanting to win the stage will attack there obviously. Everyone will wait, and we'll see the repitition of a furious lead-out into the climb, which in itself is essentially the same, just a tiny bit shorter.
The toughest gradients are at the bottom, GC favourites' attacks will be counter-attacked, so this is another finish for the stage hunters or some outsider GC contenders, if an attack is to succeed of course, likely we'll have a sprint at the line with a reduced bunch.
The Weather
Tiny chance of rain showers, cloudy day and a southern breeze throughout the day, a tailwind in the final ascent!
The Favourites
The riders won't be too happy knowing tomorrow is a very similar day and finale, the same is to be expected with a violent fight for positioning into the base of the climb (luckily not as dangerous as today's) and, if today was any measure, go all-out from the bottom. The big man Julian Alaphilippe loves that strategy and together with Dries Devenyns they succeeded once again in it, tomorrow they don't have the need to repeat the feat but it's undeniable that they can once again blow up the final ascent in it's first half, no-one had response to the Frenchman today and his best chance of winning again (and maybe getting some seconds) is to use the formula, as Deceuninck were spotless today. Who can keep up with him judging by today? Well you can argue the slightly shorter climb can benefit some, like Mathieu van der Poel who luckily avoided the crash but lost position because of it, Pierre Latour was also impressive today almost catching up with his fellow countryman. The fast men could also show something, although Wout van Aert showed today to be in domestique duty, likely not yet in his top form, we did see a brilliant Michael Matthews finishing off the job really well and bringing the GC group home. You could argue maybe Sonny Colbrelli and Peter Sagan could eventually do the same, but with the effects of today's crashes they aren't reliable bets. Alex Aranburu also finished near the GC group, he's a wildcard for tomorrow.
The way we've seen them ride today though, I wouldn't be surprised to see both Primoz Roglic and Tadej Pogacar in on the action once again. With a strong sprint they certainly will always be ranked very well to finish the stage up high, but in case of attack they've also shown not to be shy of digging deep, unlike what I expected. They were caught though and in the GC group there are some other riders who've shown quite strong legs like Jack Haig and Wilco Kelderman who in a sprint scenario can also finish it off well, same can be said of Sergio Higuita and Geraint Thomas. Regarding some who could attack for sure David Gaudu, Bauke Mollema, Alexey Lutsenko, Jakob Fuglsang and Richard Carapaz are all cards to play seeing how they rode today and how the pure climbers were the grand majority in the finale.
Today there wasn't much indication as to how the climb would unfold, tomorrow the plot is a bit more clear, some GC riders have crashed and likely won't have a chance to show their guns, looking at Woods more specifically who would've loved the harsh gradients. Crashes affected some top puncheurs like Barguil, Valverde, Cosnefroy and Hirschi too, I would say you don't really know how all of them will do. It's hard to see someone out of these names surprise, unless they've come unscathed out of those crashes and pull out a big surprise tomorrow!
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#57 Dries Devenyns - Dries you were a real MVP yesterday! The strategy today is the same and you have a big role in it so listen close: Stay relaxed and with Julian wherever you want in the peloton today, when he goes back go back, when he stays in front stay in front, you both know how the game is played. In the first shot up the Mur you don't have to worry much, stick with the block but just ride in his wheel, after the Mur positioning will be important so make sure you have your eyes wide open and stay near the front but behind Julian so as to not block him, the guys have the horsepower to leave you in front. In the final climb the strategy is simple we'll have to enter as close to the front as possible, like today wait for Kasper to fly up the first few hundred meters and when you sense the pace is starting to settle hit the front, anaerobic out of the saddle effort, make sure Julian is in your wheel, drill it as hard as you can for around 30 or 45 seconds, it may set up for another brutal attack, or at the very least suffocate everyone. You've done it plenty times, let's do it again!
#204 Víctor de la Parte - Victor no need to burn up the legs today, 21 days of racing and today isn't one for you, stay near the back, save as much as you can, when the mountains come we'll call you, until then stay hidden and stay safe, Pierre and Anthony will give it a go today but the team has it under control.
#25 Michal Kwiatkowski - So, what a wild ride yesterday eh? It wasn't a good day for us but there was nothing you could've done, Tao has lost a lot of time and won't be a card to play anymore, as for Richie he'll also have to find his way through the pack, we were 4 for GC but right now you only have to worry about Richard and Geraint and the game is the same, position, position and position. We did quite well today but had bad luck, so let's stay near the front again as best we can, we must! You know how to do this job very well, make sure they're both in the wheel and shout to the guys in front to make sure you all stay in the front of the group from before the base of the first Mur until the final ascent starts, from there on stay in front for as long as you can, if you see either Tadej or Primoz make a move cover it immediately, it's a good finale for you and we're counting on you to keep them safe and well within the GC fight.
Prediction Time
⭐ Colbrelli, WV.Aert, Haig, Kelderman, Higuita, Gaudu, Thomas, Mollema
I see no reason why it won't be a 2 for 2. I think he won't win with the ease of today, but a rider like him doesn't race consevatively, he'll be in control and respond if there are moves inside the final kilometer.
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