It was one hell of an opening stage to the Tour, not what was to be expected in any way even with the weird weather forecast. Crashes came aplenty, be in the begining of the stage, middle and end. Quite unfortunate, personally I really didn't feel confortable watching and that final crash wasn't even a surprise, it's part but cycling has just been insane in terms of crashes. In the end it all came down to a sprint as expected but with different protagonists than the expected ones, Bennett didn't have the legs and Ewan didn't even contest, Nizzolo was blocked and early launchers were to the benefit, Kristoff had the power and took an impressive stage win to take yellow, Mads Pedersen and Cees Bol completed the podium.
Positive: Any GC rider that avoided a crash pretty much got away lucky, in the sprinters the first two riders were surprises and will wear some nice jerseys tomorrow. Turgis a nice surprise in the in the Top10.
Negative: Sivakov was really on one of those days, crashed twice, didn't abandon but it couldn't be a worst start to his race, Miguel Angel Lopez and Thibaut Pinot both had bad crashes but didn't have any time losses thankfully. Several other riders crashed like Bennett, Soler, Porte and Pozzovivo, whilst others like Valverde and Dan Martin I can't be sure if they crashed but in the very least they were help up by that final crash.
The Route
Stage 2 takes the riders for another loop but this time much bigger. After leaving the city the riders will head inland and will tackle the massive Col de la Colmiane quickly followed by the Col de Turini, two of the hardest climbs in the Alpes Maritimes. That is a hard sequence, it also makes for a good breakaway opportunity as I doubt the climbers will make a bid for smashing the peloton.
The Col de la Colmiane has some constant and hard gradients, it summits with 124.5Km from the finish.
And with 87Km to the finish summits the hardest climb of the opening week, the Col de Turini is a proper hard climb, around 45 minutes of climbing, it's very constant and has a dangerous descent near the bottom.
After coming back down to Nice there will be two ascents of the Col d'Èze the first one being via it's hardest side the one perhaps most iconic, it summits with 33Km to go.
The second one is pretty much the same climb but summiting before those final 3Km. It's not an easy climb, and after a hard day, alongside a fast descet to the finish we could see some moves, it comes with just 9Km to the finish. The finish line is then located in the same place as today but on the opposite direction.
The Weather
It will rain overnight, means the roads may still be wet for the stage I wouldn't be surprised, but what is really to note is the strong winds that will be felt from the southwest. Not as strong in the interior, I think it won't make much difference in the big climbs, but it can for sure help the attacks on the final two climbs that are ridden mostly in a tailwind, as for the descent to the finish it will be ridden in a headwind.
The Favourites
So the chances of a breakaway win depend on wether there's a team willing to push on the early climbs or not, the nasty Turini descent and the evident nervousness may help those breakaway chances. But there are some riders who probably have good feelings, and a team like Deceuninck could help in the chase as Alaphilippe as a very suiting day to come.
UAE have suiting riders, I've seen them in the past get a rider in the breakaway whilst in pink and get the lead with a new rider, I wouldn't be surprised if they tried that same strategy again and a rider like Formolo or Polanc could do very well, local riders Nicolas Roche, Soren Kragh Andersen and Michael Valgren are personal favourites for me but it really will be very open, some riders will have balls and try already their luck tomorrow but most will for sure wait until the coming weeks. I would have AG2R's Nans Peters as a good name to take into account, Deceuninck may launch Cavagna in if they don't intend on attacking with Alaphilippe into the win (he worked in the leadout today and crashed in the day, so it can happen), then there's the two breakaway specialists in Thomas de Gendt and Alessandro De Marchi who can always mark a big presence and (more in de Gendt's case) are used to taking big wins and wearing yellow, CCC have also Simon Geshke and Greg van Avermaet with some good chances, Cofidis have Herrada and Edet and in my opinion it would be dumb if they didn't take the opportunity, Astana looked agressive today and payed the price, I think it's important that they stay next to Lopez tomorrow and avoid losses but you never know when they may try to net a win, Israel and Mitchelton also have a good set of riders who are purely targeting stage wins and I'd have Israel as good candidates with Neilands and Hermans. List is always big, but these are all riders that can realistically be in a break and have the legs to take a win.
As for the peloton you would initially mention Alaphilippe however there will be a lot of attention at the front, if the win comes from there for sure it'll be on the final climb and it isn't that hard, so opportunity may prosper over power. The big GC men I think they'd rather wait, but there would be nothing anti-sporting in attacking to test Pinot and Lopez so maybe something will come, you can never count out Roglic but with Dumoulin also a strong rouleur he can with no problem take a sneaky win for yellow, and in Jumbo Wout van Aert always remains an incognite because for sure he'll be at duty but he can climb very very well. Lots remain but opportunity will dictate if one of them can elude the peloton.
Prediction Time
⭐ Roglic, Dumoulin, Geschke, Herrada, Cavagna, Polanc
My call is going for an elusive win from home rider Nicolas Roche. Lots of riders will want a win tomorrow and several live in Nice, I expect a big breakaway as (if Deceuninck doesn't) no-one will be trying to block attacks. Astana and Groupama shouldn't try raids after today and I think it would be smart for the GC teams to save their legs and try to stay safe.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!
Commentaires