A repetition of yesterday essentially, very similar stage, easily controled by UAE, who had Bahrain and Ineos chase throughout a big portion of the day, but both to no gain as Tadej Pogacar easily seemed to control the competition in the final climb, mixing the group with an initial attack, and then repeating it inside the last kilometer to take the stage, the yellow jersey, and the KOM jersey.
Positive: Pogacar was never put into trouble, seemed to easily net another win.
Negative: Uran cracking and falling from 4th to 10th, also Poels who thought for the KOM jersey during the whole race but now sees it fly away in the final meaningful climb not to one of his rivals, but a GC rider.
The Route
Behind are the mountains. Those who have resisted will have an opportunity here to get glory once again, when it comes to the sprinters of course, everyone else is likely having no chances of succeeding in such a long flat stage through Aquitaine. There isn't much to talk about tomorrow, just the finale.
On paper it's a very gentle finale, ideal in terms of safety with no corners, no roudabouts with the finish just outside Libourne, however there's something odd about it. The final kilometers are swarmed in road bollards, I want to believe they can be temporarily removed for the stage, if they're not it's either going to be incredibly dangerous with the obstacles in the middle of the road or instead the road is quite narrow. There aren't any features or gradients to mention, as straight of a finish as it can be.
The Weather
Bad news if you were expecting show, there will be a headwind all day, not strong but it will be felt, intensifying as the day goes on, hopefully that won't stop the stage hunters from giving it a go early on.
The Favourites
I mean what can really be told here that you don't know about? There have been tons of sprints and this one should be no different, no technical features, no gradients and no wind to not at the finish, the sprinter list is even more reduced than the last one we've had and there is no surprise in saying that this is another round of Deceuninck versus everyone else. Mark Cavendish is eyeing a record and the team will surely help him reach it tomorrow, he has the ability to take that win tomorrow already.
It's him against everyone else, Jasper Philipsen has been the most consistent competition he's had so likely he is the only man capable of taking this one, headwind sprint should suit him quite well too, and the other rider who has shown the legs to beat him is Wout van Aert but due to the time-trial on Saturday he's very unlikely to be there. The list then include the likes of Cees Bol and Mads Pedersen who at their best can absolutely contest this one, but both have had a Tour to forget, the likes of Michael Matthews and Sonny Colbrelli who are also up there in the points classification, Christophe Laporte and Andre Greipel who are more classic sprinters who definitely have the experience and can surprise, and then the likes of Ivan Cortina and Danny van Poppel who are largely underated in this field but can also pop a nice surprise in the finale.
Furthermore you should expect some moves early in the day from some of the riders in the list below. Although I expect attacks on Champs Elysees, tomorrow is a much more viable opportunity for a breakaway to succeed, I doubt any team will collaborate with Deceuninck seeing how the Belgian team has dominated the sprints and in order to get a win this is how they have to race, and you've got some real quality on this list aswell.
Trek - Stuyven; Theuns
Movistar - Erviti
Bora - Politt; Postleberger
Cofidis - Wallays
Alpecin - Dillier; Rickaert
EF - Rutsch
AG2R - Godon; Naesen; GV.Avermaet
DSM - Eekhoff; Pedersen
Lotto - Van Moer
Bahrain - Haller; Wright
BikeExchange - Durbridge; Juul-Jensen
Astana - Aranburu
Qhubeka - Walscheid
TotalEnergies - Turgis
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#203 Jérémy Cabot - Enjoy the ride Jérémy, it was a tough race but you made it to the finish, we'll try with Anthony and Julien mainly to get someone in front, a breakaway may succeed, you can go ahead and try to stay at the front, if an opportunity pops try to put yourself in front, we need some TV time for our sponsors.
#34 André Greipel - First of all happy birthday mate! This is a big day for you, you'll enjoy it nonetheless but today we have extra confidence in you and we'll help set you up for the sprint will all our focus, we have a non-technical finish which should suit you well and we're very positive that you can do something big, I know you have the legs for it! Guillaume and Reto will help you stay well positioned, in the final 2 kilometers follow Rick, he knows his way around and he will be told to stay besides Cavendish at all times, you should be in his wheel just like you used to do a decade ago, Deceuninck will have the best leadout, you should be as close to him as possible, go in all out for this one.
#145 Nils Eekhoff - We'll try something different today Nils, Cees hasn't had the best race and although we're down to 5 we gotta try to launch someone in front, it won't be easy but hopefully everyone turns on Deceuninck. You, Joris and Casper will all be near the front at the start, take turns attacking, we want to have someone in front and put pressure, although the conditions aren't ideal it's our best chance to take a stage the way things are going.
Prediction Time
⭐ WV.Aert, Bol, Matthews, Greipel, Van Poppel, Stuyven, Postleberger, Rickaert, Rutsch, Van Moer, Aranburu, Walscheid, Turgis
Although the chances of a breakaway succeeding are real, cycling isn't a game of chance, and the odds are always favourable for some riders to win, and based on logic I'm going with Mark Cavendish to take a record-breaking 35th win in the Tour de France.
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