The final mountainous stage of the Tour promised and it delivered somewhat. It wasn't the day many had expected in terms of show because Jumbo suffocated it, but it was a great stage to watch out front as Ineos made a bit of a mens by taking a brilliant 1-2 win with Michal Kwiatkwoski adding this prestigious win to his already incredible palmares with Richard Carapaz by his side. The peloton was controlled by Jumbo all day long, in Glières there were some moves, the only meaningful was by Landa, but after the top and even with a puncture by Porte everyone agreed on taking it easy to the finish as Bahrain paced and Wout van Aert took third.
Positive: Roglic has pretty much cimented his Tour win today, never looked in distress in any way, Landa and Mas took advantage of Yates and Uran cracking to gain two positions on the overall.
Negative: Yates and Uran exactly, bad day and came down the GC a bit.
The Route
Stage 19 will be for the GC contenders a chance to rest as much as possible. The stage isn't long, and it also isn't mountainous however it's not totally flat, it's one the sprinter teams will have to control however they may struggle a bit to do so.
The rouleurs will be looking for a last opportunity for a win and the stage isn't easy to control, although flat it has quite a lot of little peaks that stretch out until the final part of the stage with a lot of descending into the finish in Champagnole.
The Weather
It varies throughout the day, a warm day, at the start there is some significant southern wind meaning tailwind, second half of the stage shouldn't have any influence though.
The Favourites
Interesting day, I reckon Bora, CCC, Sunweb and Lotto will want to bring everything back for a sprint finish, Ewan wants a win after surviving the Alps but has very few team left, but Sagan and Trentin still dream of green and they will for sure help chasing maybe even before the IS. On the other side Deceuninck won't mind a breakaway, on the opposite they may even want it to be strong and succeed, so maybe they'll even try to get riders in front, cause havoc and prevent a sprint finish to keep their jersey safe.
Don't be surprised to see someone like Asgreen or Cavagna completely drilling it in the opening kilometers, the big classics riders are the ones you should expect to be dangerous tomorrow as Rowe and van Baarle from Ineos, Juul-Jensen, Naesen, Stuyven/Pedersen/Theuns (who may at the same time target a sprint, will depend), Keukeleire/Bettiol and several other names, I reckon it will be chaos at the start.
As for the sprinters you know exactly what to expect, Bennett and Ewan should be the fastest men, Bennett alongside Cees Bol should have the best leadout, Sagan and Trentin will want to be at the front as best as possible to get as many points as possible, Viviani and Kristoff are the big wildcards, Coquard, Boasson Hagen, Bonifazio and Mezgec all have a place in front in their lucky day. And then... there's Wout van Aert...
Prediction Time
⭐ Kristoff, Asgreen, WV.Aert, Cavagna, Pedersen, Naesen, Keukeleire, Bettiol
As much as I'd like to have a classics clash tomorrow I'm going with brain over heart for tomorrow. The truth is there are reasons to see the rouleurs dabble for tomorrow, but it really will depend on how commited Sunweb and Deceuninck are into the chances of a breakaway. If they want to send riders to the front it can very well succeed, but if they don't (or at least Sunweb doesn't) I think there's enough firepower to control the stage. Head says Ewan, small team but that hasn't stopped him, he's been through the Alps, hasn't burned energy in the fight for green, let's see if it was worth the effort!
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