Big mountain stage yet again, one controlled by UAE easily who set up an early attack by Pogacar on the final climb, only to have an answer from Vingegaard and Carapaz, who finished by that order after a string of attacks all throughout the final half of the Col du Portet, one that saw big gaps between the Top10 but showed also how balanced the Top3 is.
Positive: Pogacar taking the win, jumping to 2nd on KOM. Carapaz and Vingegaard distanced Uran.
Negative: Uran loosing a bit of very important time in the fight for the podium.
The Route
The final mountain stage and it's quite similar to today, completely flat start and a day that should favour the GC men to fight for the stage. However the differences lies that the major climb of the day doesn't match with the finish but with an earlier point. The organizers decided to make a really short stage but with no opportunity to attack early which in my honest opinion is just a rookie way to do things, however in the Tourmalet big things can happen.
It finishes with 35.5Km to go, it's hard on both sides but the climb needs no introduction. It has altitude, it has distance, it has gradient, the race can blow up completely here, raids can happen, it all depends on the riders.
The stage doesn't end there though, as the final climb is reserved, the Luz Ardiden is the final real climb of the Tour and it is a slightly smaller Tourmalet (pretty nice way to describe it). With all the fatigue built up over these weeks again it's an ascent that can create big damage.
The Weather
Nice spring temperatures, a bit of a northern breeze, shouldn't have much effect on the stage.
The Favourites
As for breakaway contenders the list narrows more and more, after such a hard race, and after everyone had their digs we know exactly how everyone is doing, the stage is hard and the start is flat so there is no hiding, if a break is to succeed it will have a world-class climber taking the win. You have riders who are showing brilliant legs in this final week like David Gaudu, Sergio Higuita and Dylan Teuns, who all did well in the opening week but struggled in the second, seem fit to take a stage, you have Pello Bilbao and Mattia Cattaneo who are in the GC fight but because there are such big gaps it doesn't sound like anyone would be chasing them if they get in front, Bilbao specifically is of a great threat as he descends brilliantly and is in his terrain in the final week of the race.
Furthermore you've got the KOM fight, very little was done today as the breakaway set off without any real climber, there is still a day left for Nairo Quintana, Michael Woods and Wout van Aert to try to snatch the jersey from Wout Poels but it's not looking easy, with big points at the finish they will with no doubt give it 100% to finish the stage as best as possible, and then you've got some wildcards like Sepp Kuss, Bauke Mollema, Miguel Angel Lopez and Michal Kwiatkowski who are also possibilities to win from a break if they find themselves there.
Will the breakaway take it though? I wouldn't be sure at all, although the start isn't as flat as today, the stage is ridiculously short (really, short mountain stage with a flat start? Who told them this is a good idea???) so there almost isn't time for any breakaway to win a serious gap, and the pure climbers will struggle to be in it. Today was the first mountain day to be fought between the GC contenders, tomorrow is another very good possibility, it's quite easy to control the stage, and who knows Pogacar may want to take KOM too, which is possible at this point as he sits second. So you should expect another Pogacar vs Vingegaard vs Carapaz, they were superior to everyone else today and you probably shouldn't expect anything different tomorrow.
You will have the battle for second place between the latter two, you'll have Rigoberto Uran, Ben O'Connor and Wilco Kelderman fighting for fourth place, and Enric Mas and Alexey Lutsenko fighting for seventh, that is if no-one from behind pops in the front group and spoils the party to some of these riders.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#187 Ion Izagirre - Luts struggled yesterday so today we go for the break, last chance to get that stage and you're our best card, we'll try to have as many guys in front as possible and you have to make sure you're there, then save yourself as much as possible before the Tourmalet. Then from there on just do your thing, the race will be pretty clear, goal is to win the stage, use the descent very well, keep your pace controlled in the climbs, bring in the big one.
#167 Dylan Teuns - The 4th category near the start is where you have to go, we have Sonny, Dylan, Wout and Pello who all have good reasons to be in front, today we go all in for the breakaway and you've shown great legs, I count on you to be there, for us to have some guys in front, Sonny to get some points, Wout has to keep KOM, and Pello could go up the GC, so if they are there you make sure you help them, and in the climbs if you feel it who knows you can go for the stage, you definitely have the legs for it!
#173 Luke Durbridge - Enjoy the day mate, we don't have responsabilities for the GC, we don't have someone to win the stage the way the stage is designed, stay with Michael, maybe help him get in the break if things are looking loose at the start, would be good if he went to get some points but it won't be easy, if it doesn't work stay along in the pack and rest up for the days to come.
Prediction Time
⭐ Kwiatkowski, Woods, Poels, Quintana, Kuss, MA.Lopez
Going with Michal Kwiatkowski for this one, I know it's a complicated one but it's possible, if I am to go for GC guys I think they're perfectly balanced and Pogacar doesn't have the pressure to win anymore, by the way he's been racing this week it's clear Kwiatkowski doesn't have the task to work for GC anymore he's free to hunt for stages, he has great form, a suiting start and the climbing legs necessary to win atop a big mountain stage.
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