The queen stage of the Tour, it was properly named. The flatish start to the stage didn't mean a big breakaway but instead a small group of strong climbers emerged from which Richard Carapaz was the one who held the flag the most up until the final kilometers of the Col de la Loze who was mostly paced by Bahrain who decided to take an agressive approach to today, collectively as Landa failed to getting any profit from it, UAE and Jumbo notched it up until Lopez attacked in the final kilometers, shortly went solo and held the gap until the finish gaining 15 seconds on Roglic and 30 on Pogacar. The GC didn't have a huge makeover obviously, but the podium is much clearer after today. Tomorrow, let's see if there's raiding.
Positive: Astana and Lopez on the ride, even with Izagirre's abandon Lopez showed his preparation was perfect and struck exactly in his specialty terrain. Roglic opened his lead even more, Porte and Valverde also profited from today in a significant way.
Negative: Uran struggled in the brutal ramps of the final climb, Quintana also succumbed to his fatigue and crash damage and dropped far out of the Top10.
The Route
So to add to that fatigue from the previous stage, this is the final opportunity for the climbers to make damage. It's a perfect raid stage, well almost, the hardest climb is near the end so likely most riders will want to wait until there. BUT, there is so much climbing in the Cormet de Roseland, Col des Saisies and Col des Aravis. These three will set up the race a lot, and will allow domestiques to go up the road and set up for big moves, and the GC favourites themselves can move there as it's a constant up-and-down and the climbs are hard. There's over 5100 meters of climbing in this stage.
130Km from the finish and the highest point of the stage.
85Km to the finish.
58Km to the finish.
The "worst" case scenario is that the attacks come on the Plateau des Glières. It's 6Km long at 11% it's a beast of a climb, in the end of a beast race and stage. No words more needed, everyone will be on their limit at the summit where they'll have a little gravel section and a descent before an insulting climb into the Col des Fleuries which can accentuate some gaps, they'll be made here in Glières but you never know with the legs they'll have.
The Weather
Today it threatened but didn't materialize, and tomorrow is the same, there may be rain showers however it's less likely, should be a smooth day.
The Favourites
Now for the (maybe) last time, breakaway or GC day? One of the big questions of the Tour, one I've actually gotten right everyday in the last week or so. Tomorrow my guess is... breakaway, BUT exactly the same as today, as long as the Bahrain guys are there. Today they stayed in the peloton then worked for a fading Mikel Landa, tomorrow they'd be idiot to make the same mistake. Bilbao and Caruso are on flying form and they are looking lively and fresh unlike more than half the peloton including most stage hunters. Today you withnessed Kamna blow up, Carapaz was mega strong but there's no way he can win tomorrow after two days of brutal breakaway action, Martin looked really good but his descending won't be any friend of his, there's some more riders but most will be connected to their leaders like De la Cruz, Kuss. However in a special situation it could change, Jumbo still look the strongest team despite others having domestiques on the ride, they'll be attacked but I think they can keep it under control.
But they'll have to take it more calmly if they want to stick together and control the race, which in the climbs but mostly descents will allow the break to win some time, and some riders can profit from it as I've mentioned before, adding to that I'd add Valentin Madouas who looks like a brilliant talent when it comes to the third week, youngster Marc Hirschi who could go on a final breakaway and try his luck.
As for the GC riders there's nothing I can surprise you with. Pog, Rog and... Superman! Roglic and Jumbo will be defensive, Pogacar will try something if he has the legs but today it seemed like his bout of endless confidence must've finished, he will let Jumbo ride tomorrow and try something if the opportunity comes but I'm not sure it will, and Lopez will for sure attack and I'd say they'll all wait for Glières, although if you ask me I'd love to see some action on the first climb of the day, which isn't impossible and I know Lopez has the balls to do it. The others will be fighting, Porte wants to keep in touch with Lopez to still have the chance to finish on the podium, everyone else behind will try to stay in the wheels and get a good alliance if they find themselves in a good day, Landa and Mas have little to loose with the gaps behind so they may try something from far.
Prediction Time
⭐ Caruso, Porte, Kuss, Mas, Madouas
Screw it I'll go with Pello again! I just can't help that feeling, it's like his race has been building up to this stage, he is absolutely flying and will have the freedom and space, wether a break guy or a GC guy will win it's a 50/50, but I'll lean into the more exciting side.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!
Comentarios