A day for the breakaway as expected and it took again a very long to form, a mix between some climbers, puncheurs and sprinters, Patrick Konrad attacked on the second climb of the day to join the front group, and in Portet d'Aspet he launched his solo move which handed him an amazing win the rainy day, in front of Sonny Colbrelli and Michael Matthews who led the sprint home from the chasing group. In the GC race there was a bit of action stirred by Cofidis, Jumbo-Visma kept going all-gas unsure of the motive but all the Top10 arrived together.
Positive: Bora getting a good win, from a rider who's tried really hard to succeed in it. Although the win was the priority, both Matthews and Colbrelli got a lot of points for the green jersey, keeping the chance alive.
Negative: Nothing to note.
The Route
The GC fight reignites, we have the final couple of stages that will blow up the race in the Pyrinees, and it's quite a simple day, just draw a _____/\/\/
115 kilometers of flat roads will lead into the first climb of the day which is the ever-present Col du Peyresourde. Summits with 49.5Km to go and is a long, relatively steep climb, that will see the grupetto formed and see some early damage in the groups fighting for the stage win.
The second climb is shorter but steeper, more explosive as the Col de Val Louron-Azet will put some more damage in the peloton, it's an hairpin-filled climb that summits with 29 kilometers to go and will lead to the descent into Saint-Lary-Soulan straight onto the final climb.
Last used in 2018 when Nairo Quintana won with a brilliant display the Col de Portet is set to be ridden once again and there's no hiding, the organizers set out to put all the fireworks on the final climbs. Here is the biggest example, this ascent is an epic one though and capable of creating massive gaps, 16Km at 8.7% is in itself already very hard, but not just that, the pavement is also far from perfect in it's second half. It's a brute all the way to the end, one for pure climbers where there is room room chance to hide.
The Weather
Very strong wind from the west early in the day, cross-headwind for most of the start but risk of crosswinds exist and all teams will need to stay very wary before going into the mountains, even if the roads won't be very exposed. Once in the mountains the challenge is different, there is small chance of rain and the temperatures will be quite low for July, the wind will also be present from the north but it's unlikely to have much an effect as the first two climbs it represents a crosswind and in the final it will be covered from the wind likely (if not, then mostly a crosswind aswell).
The Favourites
Big day for the GC, flat start, and a brutal climb to finish it off. One thing is for sure, if a breakaway is to succeed, only a brilliant world-class climber can take it, but with the wind and flat roads in the start of the day it will be really hard for them to be there, and not easy to get a big gap. Although the breakaway has succeeded in every mountain stage so far, tomorrow is the day that's the most likely to change, the big men will come to the fore, Tadej Pogacar will be looking to tick another day as he just has to follow the big fight for the podium that develops behind, where Rigoberto Uran, Jonas Vingegaard and Richard Carapaz will likely go head to head once again in a battle to fill in the two remaining podium spots. Safe to say everyone will wait for the final climb, it's one where strategy doesn't matter much, legs do. Ben O'Connor, Alexey Lutsenko, Wilco Kelderman and Enric Mas will also be in the mix, unlikely for the stage win, but to keep or attack each other's GC spots.
So breakaway chances, they aren't that big, but they exist, there are huge KOM points available and hence there will be big moves that's for sure. You still have a very active battle between Wout Poels, Michael Woods, Nairo Quintana and Wout van Aert, the latter will be less favoured in these climbs but is the one who can more easily get in front, but he's also the only one with GC responsabilities behind. All of them can realistically fight for the stage win aswell, you have plenty more though who will be eyeing the stage, the likes of lightweight climbers like David Gaudu, Esteban Chaves, Dan Martin and Miguel Angel Lopez who have a good opportunity to succeed having a very suiting final climb, Mattia Cattaneo who is still in GC discussion alongside Gaudu, but other riders like Dylan Teuns and Bauke Mollema who've gotten a win already in the race, Alejandro Valverde who is showing great form and the EF duo Ruben Guerreiro and Sergio Higuita who have been fighting to get that win for a while and may finally succeed.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#15 Sepp Kuss - You had your moment of glory Sepp, your Tour is done, we're just 5 guys and tomorrow you will stay besides Jonas, he's riding so so well and he's in a good position to finish on the podium. We don't have the guys to chase or work, but as we get into the final climb we can start to think about going to the front if he feels good, you stay with him, do what you did these last two years, we've got two mountain stages left and you will be crucial for our plan to get him on the podium, I expect nothing but you flying up Portet!
#3 Rui Costa - Rui, big day ahead of us, we have Pogi still in great position and with the wind and rain I expect you to do well today, we don't have to work, we don't have to push, we have to stay in the wheels just that, make sure he enters the descents well positioned, make sure before the final climb he isn't isolated, the other guys will be fighting for the podium and your job is to just help Tadej stay with them.
#44 Bauke Mollema - One more go Bauke? I mean you've got the win you were looking for, but there's no harm in trying to go for another since you're here, we don't have any GC guy to help, we have the freedom, 2 is better than 1 so let's go for it! Kenny and Julien will be trying too, also because the start is flat I'll get Eddy to make the effort too, help you guys, and push the pace if needed. And a day like this there isn't anything very complex, all the guys will be waiting for the final climb, the KOM guys will be there and going for the points, you stay stable and consistent, not sprinting and saving your bullets. And in the final climb, mate you gotta be the strongest if you want to win, little strategy can be done, pace it as smoothly as possible, try to ride in the wheels in the first half if possible, but make sure you never go into the red too early, it's a colossal ascent.
Prediction Time
⭐ Mas, Poels, Mollema, Valverde, MA.Lopez, Gaudu, Chaves, Guerreiro, Higuita, Kuss
Think a GC day is incoming and Jonas Vingegaard will finally take a win after the amazing climbing exhibitions he's been showing in this race.
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