As all others today's mountain stage was one for the breakaway and it was an exciting battle as soon as the riders entered Andorra, the battle was left for the final climb where Sepp Kuss was the strongest out of the incredibly strong escapee group, going solo in the final climb and keeping it until the line, chased by second place Alejandro Valverde and in third place was Wout Poels. In the peloton Ineos tried to attack the race in Envalira, the headwind blocked, the attacks came aplenty on the final climb though but with the big 4 equally balanced they came to the finish together with no GC differences done except for Guillaume Martin having lost some minutes.
Positive: Kuss having the win, finally showing his best legs.
Negative: Guillaume Martin would've probably lost some time but having lost contact in the beginning of the decent of Envalira was a really bad way of doing so, shed almost 3 minutes to his rivals.
The Route
A breakaway day on the menu opening up the final week, the third of five days in the Pyrinees and the one that should likely see the GC contenders ride most calmly. It's a day for the puncheurs and climbers to try and net another win, a day that should see some interesting dynamics are many riders will have to attack from far to see their chances of winning improved, whilst others will play their chances on the flat roads.
The stage starts by the border with Andorra in Pas de la Case (not used to writing Andorran names in French, I admit...) and starts off with a descent, a weird start I must say fully downhill (specially the neutral start) and the peloton will have around 37 kilometers of road before having their first uphill section.
The Col de Port is likely where the breakaway will fly off, it's not a rough climb but it's hard enough to see the best climbers who have freedom getting away, a diverse group in front is expected as it features regular gentle sections through it's 16 kilometers. This will then lead to a technical descent and later the hardest climb of the day which is the Port de la Core, which summits with 68.5Km to go and is the ascent where the pure climbers should make their move, it's a long climb and the gradients are very decent, enough to create big damage in an escapee group.
Surely there will still be quite some groups until the final climb though, one better suited for puncheurs, the Col de Portet d'Aspet is where the final decisive attacks should come, the final two kilometers can get quite steep and they allow for some gaps to be created and settled. It summits with 33 kilometers to go still though, it is quite far from the finish but the climbers can't wait any longer to make their move.
The descent will be quite dangerous, although not long, the riders will go through the Fabio Casartelli memorial which should remind them of the risks. After they get down they reach the valley road that will take them to the line in Saint-Gaudens, fully flat except for a little bump with 7Km to go and also, surprisingly, the final few hundred meters also feature some rough gradients that will make for a tricky sprint if one is to happen.
The Weather
It's possible to see some rain throughout the day, the forecast points towards it although it isn't very likely. The wind however will be tremendously strong, it will come from the northwest with rising intensity throughout the day, unsure of how much it will be felt in the valley roads but it is a sure thing that a block headwind will await the riders as they leave the mountains, alongside some cold temperatures.
The Favourites
Text breakaway day. The big mountain stages are about to arrive and the GC guys will be saving their weapons for them, besides just after a rest day surely very few would even have intentions of risking it all. There are decent climbs but they will come very far from the finish, and with a headwind, so not a GC day.
So we look into who will be fighting for the stage. After stage 14 a new scenario has emerged where it's possible to have an hour-long fight for a breakaway, the descent start and the headwind valley dash until the first climb should mean it will stay compact until that point, and the breakaway may only go free there and have a group solely made out of climbers, which would make for a really interesting dynamic seeing that the decisive part of the stage is flat, with a headwind. It's set to be a really open day with lots of tactics to be deployed. On one side you have the rouleurs who will hope a group goes clear early on, or survive the first climb so that they can later enter their field of expertize. From this list not many will be there though, it's not a day for the climbers to succeed and surely some will be thinking of the next days, nevertheless if the group goes in the climbs you will have some of these men go in front. From those with good sprints you can feature the likes of Alejandro Valverde, Aurelien Paret-Peintre, Ion Izagirre, and Sergio Higuita, big contenders, Higuita's teammate Ruben Guerreiro has also been riding into great form and is close to hitting a win, you have the likes of Michael Woods and Daniel Martin who have been very active specially in the KOM fight, you will have Wout Poels and Nairo Quintana mandatorily mentioned here aswell because of the available points. There are guys like Esteban Chaves and David Gaudu who will be struggling in the strong wind, opposite you can find in Mattia Cattaneo, and Bahrain who have more options in Dylan Teuns, Matej Mohoric and Sonny Colbrelli (not in the climber field, but can form a very good combination alongside Wout Poels).
The puncheurs may have their day though, with good climbing capacity and a likely very compact finish, a strong sprint is likely to be very important in this stage and looking at Julian Alaphilippe, once again, it's his kind of day and he'll be looking to add another stage to this edition. Riders like Omar Fraile and Patrick Konrad are ideal for such a day, and find a very suiting finale where a sprint may be vital.
As for the rouleurs, consider men like Colbrelli and Mohoric which I've mentioned beforehand, but add in riders like Kasper Asgreen, Jasper Stuyven, Wout van Aert, Michael Matthews, Alex Aranburu and Magnus Cort Nielsen. In common they have one thing which is a very strong sprint, superior to most names mentioned beforehand. They can all climb very well, have quite a strong engine and will definitely love the weather conditions which will favour them tomorrow. When you find a rider like van Aert you find no hole in his armour, at least one of these men will be in the breakaway for sure, and they are the reason why the climbs are likely to be attacked hard, and tactics will come into play very early on.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#207 Julien Simon - Hey, wait for how long have you been here?? Ok keep doing your thing Julien, whatever it may be, today is one for the break and I want you to be at the front in the start, keep an eye on Pierre and Anthony and help both of them try to integrate the group, in the flat section is the preference as it would make things easier for Anthony, make moves and dig deep when they're in your wheel.
#116 Magnus Cort Nielsen - Magnus, we go in for the kill today yes? I know you have this day pointed out for a long time, we will help you win it, Rigo is doing good and won't need assistance today, we've had Sergio and Ruben riding amazingly and we intend on having one of them alongside you, and play strategically. Ideally the break will go at the base of the first climb, you save yourself until there and then get to the front, it will be sharp, but you have the climbing legs for it. When you get in front stay in the wheels, survive the first climb, get some bidons and come to the car between climbs, avoid putting your nose into the headwind, if you go over Core in front you're doing really well, Portet d'Aspet is very short and you can for sure stay in contact, and from there on smooth sailing. If you're in a chasing group go all-out, get the other guys collaborating well, bigger groups will easily reel in an escapee or two with this headwind, if you're in front go all-out aswell and get them collaborating, no-one in their right mind will attack there. If there is a group heading to the finale stay very attempt to a corner around the flamme rouge, it turns into a headwind and is the ideal spot to attack, you should take it to a sprint so respond to any move there right away, 5 meters can easily turn into a win, this isn't your first rodeo, make it happen!
#167 Dylan Teuns - Dylan, should we go again today? The pressure isn't on our shoulders, you and Matej have taken brilliant wins, we will be going for another one today, if Wout manages to get in there definitely help him out with the KOM points, if Sonny is there stay with him, pace it out in the climbs, try to keep things as compact as possible, and if Matej is there, he will attack soon and you cover every single move. If we are more than 2 in front we are in a good position to win, we can play multiple of these cards, you should be somewhat in support as the stage doesn't suit you as well as others, but if the chance pops do give it a go.
Prediction Time
⭐ Paret-Peintre, Guerreiro, Poels, Mohoric, Fraile, Matthews, Stuyven, Aranburu
I think one of my ITB riders will take it and that's Magnus Cort Nielsen, for several weeks I've had him in mind already for this day and everything seems to be falling into place, it will be very hard for the climbers to make differences, faster men will have the advantage and the Dane is prone to have occasional glimpses of brilliancy.
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