The Tour has had another important day as the defending champion Egan Bernal and compatriot Nairo Quintana cracked big time on the Grand Colombier. It was a day where Jumbo rode the front from start to finish, no big moves were made as everyone rode conservatively until the sprint where Pogacar took the win in front of Roglic and Porte. Quintana lost 3:50 whilst Bernal let off the gas and took a hit of 7:20.
Positive: Pogacar had two of his rivals gone from the fight for the win and still took 5 seconds back on Roglic and is now 40 seconds away. Porte, Mas and Valverde all having very good days aswell and all coming up the GC.
Negative: Bernal has completely sunk in the GC making it for a disaster race for Ineos as Carapaz crashed again after he wasn't even planned to be in the race and Sivakov has yet to recover from his opening stage crashes. Quintana is still 9th, but his only chance to climb back up into a possible Top5 is a miraculous recovery and a mountain raid.
The Route
The final week starts off the same way the last one did, in the mountains. It's the day after a rest day, it has breakaway written all over it, but at the same time some riders don't fare well with this day off so there can be someone looking for an opportunity to create some damage.
There's a lot of climbing throughout the day and if there are any attacks to come (regarding the GC) they should happen in the Montée de Saint-Nizier-de-Moucherotte, 12.4Km at 6.3% is a rough climb and it comes already with a lot of effort beforehand. The day after a rest day can be terrifying for some, but also it can be an opportunity for others to try and take advantage of it.
After the summit with 21Km to go there's a long flat section until the short hill-top in Villard-de-Lans.
The Weather
Very little wind to notice, it will be a cloudy day with some chances of rain which could switch things up a bit.
The Favourites
Now this is a day for the breakaway. Jumbo is the only team that will be willing to push, sure Bahrain could aswell but I doubt they will have that goal in the start. The two decisive stages in the Alps are coming in the next two days so tomorrow all the GC riders will just be thinking of saving their legs (not exactly exciting but it's the normal), Jumbo are clearly the strongest team and they'll have no reason to work so a breakaway full of strong climbers should emerge in the first half an hour of racing. So that then brings the question who are those riders? Well some of the stage hunters prefer the massive mountain stages, but at the same time they probably won't save themselves for those as the GC guys will be flying then, so tomorrow will for sure be an all-out stage-hunter show.
Ineos have just lost Egan Bernal as a GC contender. It was a huge blow to the team that already has been suffering from crashes, both him, Sivakov and Carapaz don't look their best, they may try something but I reckon the following stages could see better chances of success from them, a widely mentioned name and with reason though is Michal Kwiatkowski who's been looking sharp, it's a stage that suits him no doubt. In the field of the puncheurs you can take Alaphilippe with no doubt, alongside Asgreen they should be the team's main options for tomorrow as the rest will surely focus on Sam Bennett. Then there's Sunweb where Marc Hirschi who's already taken a stage but for sure will give it a nudge again, the day suits him very very well and the team has been saving themselves unlike many others, it's a bit too hard for Soren Kragh Andersen but not for Tiesj Benoot and Nicolas Roche who can still in theory take over the lead.
You have guys who rode really well in the Grand Colombier instead of saving themselves, I've been quite critic of that but after a rest day they may feel at their best, you have the Bahrain riders who've been growing in form and have a stage win written all over with Pello Bilbao and Damiano Caruso, they should have freedom tomorrow and definetely have the legs to take a win. Groupama have a troop of climbers hungry for an elusive win aswell, Pinot has been saving himself for the final week, Gaudu and Reichenbach have been very active in the breakaway attempts but tomorrow should come a better opportunity. Astana have Harold Tejada, Alexey Lutsenko and Gorka Izagirre who could play out in the climbs, Mitchelton have Esteban Chaves and Mikel Nieve, AG2R have Nans Peters and Alexis Vuillermoz, Bora have several riders, Lennard Kamna is the one who looks on best form so is to consider, Schachmann and Buchmann could be good options aswell though, EF have Hugh Carthy and Daniel Martinez who could target another win.
These have good teams, strenght in depth, but there are more riders here that come more rogue as Pierre Rolland, Jan Hirt, Kenny Elissonde, Marc Soler, Warren Barguil, Cofidis may try something with Herrada or Edet or Dan Martin. These are mostly pure climbers, they may struggle in the final part of the stage that is flat if they find themselves in an unfavourable position, but there is quite the setting to have an exciting fight for the stage win.
Prediction Time
⭐ Carthy, Schachmann, Caruso, Peters, Gaudu, Reichenbach, Lutsenko, G.Izagirre
Such a massive list, it could be bigger I admit but I tried to sum it up as best as possible. It's a lottery day, the breakaway world championships, winning tomorrow won't just take a brilliant day in terms of power but very good tactical play, and for that reason I'm going with Pello Bilbao for the win. He's in growing form, is more than proven to be an expert stage-hunter, not only can he climb the high mountains but can fly in the short climbs, has a strong team and freedom and is a very good rider tactically. In Pello we trust!
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