A vicious fight for the breakaway marked the day as in the first flat half of the stage no group was able to get away, only when the climbs started did the successful group get away and it was packed with climbing quality, despite being a whole-climber group Bauke Mollema decided to attack in the flat section before the final climb and "easily" kept a big gap over the chasing group despite the hard chase on the climb, taking a win in front of Patrick Konrad and Sergio Higuita who led the chasing group home. Guillaume Martin and Mattia Cattaneo went on the attacking group and greatly benefited from it, having no response in the peloton and having serious gains in the overall classification.
Positive: Mollema had a good tactic and did very well to take a big stage win, Guillaume Martin the other winner of the day, taking 5:25 on the GC group and climbing from 9th to 2nd overall, Cattaneo also jumped into the Top10 with this breakaway which saw no reaction from the peloton.
Negative: Nothing to note.
The Route
The race goes deep in the mountains, this is the Andorra stage, one with a lot of high mountain but not a lot of rough climbing actually. As the final day in the second week it may see some GC action, nevertheless we will have some show! There are 190 kilometers in the menu starting off with a long false-flat section that will help a strong group to get away. When everything settles down we should start seeing action of this combination of climbs.
Very very long section of climbing, the race will ride through the French-Andorran border, having the very slight ascent to the Col de Puymorens firstly, and after a very short descent go into the ascent into Pas de la Casa, having the highest point of the race further up the road in the Port d'Envalira. It's not a brutal climb, far from it, but at 2400 meters of altitude any climb is hard, and it does feature it's rougher gradients towards the end. It summits with 43.5Km to go, still far from the finish but the road is all downhill until the next and final climb.
The Col de Beixalis is the final climb, summits with 13.5Km to go and is a hard one. Although not a long ascent, after such a hard day this climb will be even harder, the first 3Km are quite hard averaging over 10%, attacks will smash everything to bits here if they happen (they will in the breakaway), and gaps will settle in the final kilometers of it. In the GC fight I would also say the climb is hard enough to be attacked, it's a switchback-filled climb that can be quite explosive, the gradients at the start mean power>slipstreaming.
After a technical descent the riders reach Andorra-La-Vielle for the flat finale.
The Weather
The temperatures won't be quite high naturally because of the altitude, but the wind should be an important factor in the exposed sections it can be felt, a southwestern wind, will be a headwind in a meaningful part of the stage early on, possibly in some exposed sections of Envalira, hopefully for the spectacle this won't be crucial.
The Favourites
Tricky stage to predict tomorrow. The start is uphill and very twisty which is ideal for a strong group to get away, it will surely be the case as there are tons of big climbers ambitioning a stage win and also the KOM/Points jerseys being disputed, a very sharp and explosive start is expected, but I also foresee UAE being very wary of the riders that attack and try to control the start hard, and I expect at the same time Ineos to try and infiltrate riders in front for sure, as they surely ambition to attack the stage hard as the altitude and the fatigue start to settle in between those that are everyday fighting to stay on the top places of the GC, and Richard Carapaz is one who usually deals very well with these efforts. He will have good roads to do so, Beixalis is a steep and explosive climb, but before that, Envalira can also see some raiding occur for sure with that altitude and the combination of long draining efforts. He, Rigoberto Uran and Jonas Vingegaard will likely be the protagonists of this side of the stage as they are bound to attack each other in these roads, Tadej Pogacar only needs to stay with them and stay on the bike to tick off another good day and shouldn't make a difference in the fight for the podium, you now have Guillaume Martin in second place and for sure he will be attacked hard. You will naturally have Wilco Kelderman, Alexey Lutsenko, Enric Mas and Ben O'Connor somewhere there inbetween the GC guys, a good day would be sticking with the names previously mentioned.
Regarding the breakaway hunters, which have had quite some success in... well all of the mountain stages so far, we have quite a lot of names to mention. One thing I've learnt in these last two years is to disregard fatigue when it comes to stages like these, today's breakaway was full of big climbers and I would still count them in for tomorrow despite the big effort today, that will include big names, you have for example the Colombians Esteban Chaves and Sergio Higuita who will love the altitude factor, I believe at least the first of those lives in Andorra, as do many other pro riders, which is definitely something to consider for tomorrow. Inbetween those I know of at least Julian Alaphilippe and Daniel Martin, Martin will surely be in a more supporting role for new KOM leader Michael Woods who rode strong today and will be looking for more points tomorrow, his battle is mainly with the likes of Wout Poels and Nairo Quintana. Who knows, Wout van Aert and today's stage winner Bauke Mollema can go in the possible hunt of this jersey aswell, the stage will suit both with long rolling climbs and a clear rise of form and motivation, and of course no pressure as they've taken wins already.
Some of these have teammates, Van Aert for example will have Sepp Kuss and Steven Kruijswijk who have been trying to go for stage wins and will surely do the same tomorrow, despite having Vingegaard riding brilliantly, Poels will have Dylan Teuns as a second card, Higuita will have Ruben Guerreiro and Trek besides Mollema also have Kenny Elissonde and Vincenzo Nibali who have been sparkly and are still looking for their own chance to win. Additionally you find Patrick Konrad who came ever-so-close to a win today, Aurelien Paret-Peintre who is riding a brilliant 12th place overall under the radar so far and should have the legs to try something big tomorrow, David Gaudu seemed to have good legs today and with no GC restrictions he may get the freedom and a stage win tomorrow, he will be on the hunt if he feels better, and finally Astana who've got Ion Izagirre and Jakob Fuglsang on the hunt.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#73 Wilco Kelderman - Big day Wilco, I don't know exactly how the race will go but hey we don't have to make that process. The strategy is the same as today, Patrick has the freedom to do his race he's got great form, and everyone will be riding around you. Others will make the race, you just have to follow the wheels, don't attack unless you feel really good, surprises can happen and you never know when, cover Lutsenko and Mas and make sure you keep an eye on O'Connor and Martin if they get dropped, if it so happens you can help around pacing if the situation fits.
#97 Pierre-Luc Périchon - Guillaume came up to second today mate, you must be tremendously proud of having been a part of his race so far, this year you're not being able to ride at the same level with him but I hope you've gotten some motivation today. He's on the fight for the podium, we have big responsability and it's time for us to be as close to the front as possible, we will be attacked, make sure you stay with him for as long as possible and make sure bidons and food never miss, he needs to save every bit of energy he can in order to battle to keep his podium place.
#145 Nils Eekhoff - Survival day Nils, stay with Cees and make sure he gets to the finish in time, I don't understand why he arrived alone today whilst 3 of you guys arrived in the gruppetto, I better not see that again.
Prediction Time
⭐ Uran, Kelderman, Chaves, Woods, D.Martin, Poels, Kuss, Teuns, Guerreiro, I.Izagirre, Fuglsang, Konrad
I believe in the chances of the breakaway and I will go with Nairo Quintana to win the stage. He will be there to make sure he gets the KOM points, he will love the altitude factor and the long climbs, and Beixalis is just the kind of ascent where he should thrive on the form he's showing, solo win coming.
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