It was another very exciting day in the Tour with an early break being caught fast after Bora looked to blow up the race to take down Bennett which they successfully did so. CCC helped control and it was all under control until the final climb where some attacks came including Alaphilippe and Hirschi which were covered by Sagan, so as I expected the win came from an opportunist over the final meters before the descent, it was Soren Kragh Andersen who attacked and never again was caught by the peloton taking another strong win for Sunweb, as Mezgec and Consonni led the peloton over next.
Positive: Bora finally had some profit from their attacking for green as Sagan managed to cut a piece of Bennett's lead and exposed his dificulties further. Sunweb keep racing brilliantly and take a great win, and the two other riders finishing on the podium had great results. Porte saved the day despite having a late mechanical.
Negative: Romain Bardet unfortunately didn't start the stage after he was diagnosed with a concussion, alongside Latour's abandon AG2R have lots big today. Some of the sprinters didn't have a chance because of the push in Beal specially Bennett who's had quite the effort but couldn't make it back. CCC also worked a lot and with no gain except Trentin getting some points for the green jersey.
The Route
Before the final rest day the race tackles the Jura mountains. You saw this set of climbs in the Tour de l'Ain, and even though we didn't see those first two climbs you just KNOW they're brutal.
Ok if you don't then I'm telling you, the first climb (Selle de Fromentel) is the Grand Colombier through it's hardest side, although not to the summit it has it's final 2Km at around 15% and has pitches over 20%. That's already brutal but then they have to go through the Col du Biche (8Km at 8%) and it's ultra-technical descent.
After all that there's a short run-up to Culoz where they'll climb the Grand Colombier to the finish. A brutal climb, very long and steep specially in it's opening kilometers. The riders will have their deserved rest after this brutal stage.
The Weather
Nothing much to note, temperatures will be nice and there won't be any wind to make a difference in the climbs.
The Favourites
The question everyday is breakaway or not? Tomorrow, I'd say not. The first half of the stage is flat and easy to control and we've seen how Jumbo have put in a lot of focus and effort into making sure they don't let strong groups go (however sometimes it hasn't worked very well) but with Martin and Jansen they can afford to do that job. The finishing climbs are all brutal, on one side you've got brilliant climbers that will target the breakaways, on the other this may not be the best day for it, specially since many of the skinny men will burn lots of matches to get in there if there's a lot of counter-attacking in the peloton.
Hence some names can still be mentioned as they can try and get the win they want like Groupama who have been on the offensive everyday, I doubt Pinot will hit it tomorrow and Gaudu may struggle but Reichenbach and Molard could be there. Pello Bilbao, Hugh Carthy, Marc Soler, Pierre Rolland... They aren't just lightweights they can infiltrate some moves, however be wary because all it takes is a team to want to control and they won't go very far.
As for the peloton, expect a Jumbo controlled day from start to finish. Our luck is that Pogacar has balls, the hardest part of the Colombier is in it's first half and there's a chance we see a big move in there if he's targeting to take time on Roglic. If it doesn't come likely will be controlled by Jumbo until the final Km, this is a stage that suits Bernal very well but after the hit in Pas de Peyrol he may want to stay a bit defensive over tomorrow. If they have a good day I would love to see also moves by Landa and Quintana both have very suiting climbs, suitable for the purists, if they have good legs they could make a move early in the climb and Pogacar could always be an ally. Lopez could but I don't see that happen, he isn't being very consistent and I expect him to ride the wheels, Uran will do that, Porte/Mas/Yates should do the same as they fight to keep their Top10 and possibly move up if the opportunity arises.
Prediction Time
⭐ Pinot, MA.Lopez, Uran, Carthy, Pinot, Gaudu, Soler, Rolland
I'll say a second strike for Pogacar. Tomorrow won't suit him as well as the past stages but he's clearly on flying form and with the biggest confidence out of the GC riders, I'm not sure how the final climb will be played out but I would believe a move in the final kilometer will be decisive.
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