A calmer day as expected, a controlled stage for the sprinters as Deceuninck worked to block all the attacks that came throughout the day, and in the bunch sprint they had no competition, as they tried to gift the stage to Ballerini, but when it looked impossible Mark Cavendish sprinted and took another win in front of teammate Michael Morkov and Jasper Philipsen.
Positive: Deceuninck controlling and easily taking home another stage.
Negative: BikeExchange loosing Yates and Hamilton because of a bad crash that affected many riders.
The Route
This is a breakaway stage there really isn't much to it. Hilly day as the race reaches the mountains once again, this ride into Quillan in the Eastern Pyrinees is fit for the puncheurs who will have a good chance to take a win here, although the stage isn't that hard and we'll have for sure a battle between a lot of stage hunters for glory.
The start is flat actually, not ideal for a group to get away but I doubt there will be teams trying to control the race, the stage will slowly gain some altitude, inside the 100 kilometers to go the pace will start to rise, 95 kilometers to go see the hardest climb of the day the Col de Montségur, surely some teams will try to make it hard from there on and try to create a bit of a selection, but surely the attacks will only star coming in the next climbs.
Not attacks in for the win, but for strategy sake. Neither of these climbs are really hard but we won't have teams controlling inside the breakaway, they will surely be attacked, summiting with 73.5 and 57.5Km to go. From there on there will be a ride in a plateau, some descending, I would say the rouleurs will attack hard the small hilltop before the final climb that summits with 31 kilometers to go at the latest, likely earlier.
The big attacks should come in the Col de Saint-Louis, it finishes with 16.5Km to go and it is indeed hard enough to see real attacks. It has a really steep section, narrow roads, should be quite an explosive ascent that will see a rider or a small group of riders that will surely be the ones in contention for the win.
The Weather
Northwestern wind that will ramp up in intensity throughout the day, early crosswinds will mean the GC guys need to watch out for possible splits, and the day will vary a lot with direction changes, there will be a large tailwind section before the final climb and from there on, if the wind is felt, it will come as a meaningful headwind.
The Favourites
This is a stage for a breakaway no doubt about that, if you wonder why the answer is simple, no clear favourite, stage too hard for most sprinters, too easy for pure climbers, coming before a set of mountain stages, deep into the second week of the Tour de France where dozens of riders will be looking to attack, and plenty teams have no GC ambitions and they all have one thing on their mind.
With that out of the way, the contenders can be split into several lists, the first one being the sprinter/puncheur riders where you will include Sonny Colbrelli and Michael Matthews who will be looking for points in the mad dash for the green jersey, for the stage they are also perfectly suited but if they find themselves there almost certainly they will be attacked and have to settle for minor places, I could almost say the same for Wout van Aert but if he's on a good day and has the ambition, for sure he can replicate his Ventoux feats, Christophe Laporte and Alex Aranburu are also names that on their best day can be taken into account, Magnus Cort has an ideal stage for him aswell and likely will be spearheading stage ambitions for EF tomorrow.
Then you have the rouleurs, on the climbs they won't have such an easy time, but there is no big ascent in this stage in it's decisive phase, they will, as it's been the case in most breakaway stage wins, attack early, take advantage of the flat roads to build a gap that they can use to survive the ascents, and use teammates to demotivate the chase if necessary. There is big form on some of these riders, we've seen Jasper Stuyven, Kasper Asgreen, Ivan Cortina, Silvan Dillier, Anthony Turgis and the Lotto duo Thomas de Gendt and Brent van Moer who all know exactly how to win on the big stage, they will surely be using this strategy into their favour and they can all climb decently well even compared with the climbers, you can add Lukas Postleberger and past stage winner Matej Mohoric to the list, who should be eyeing another one here.
In the puncheurs class you've got those who will want a more controlled stage, and for it to be decided in the final ascent where they can use their explosivity in the short ascents to their favour, some of them also have decently good sprints. Julian Alaphilippe has been burning himself quite a bit but is always favourite for such a stage, you have Alejandro Valverde as another possibility to be there, fellow Spaniard Omar Fraile as one of Astana's options, Dylan Teuns as one of Bahrains options, Warren Barguil, and some teams who've got more than one specialist like Bora with Patrick Konrad and Ide Schelling, EF with Ruben Guerreiro and Sergio Higuita and AG2R who seem to have Benoit Cosnefroy on rise of form and also Aurelien Paret-Peintre who could think of the GC aswell from a breakaway.
And finally you've got the climbers, who have better stages ahead but they do have some rough ground here where they can take advantage of that sustainable climbing power, it won't be easy as they won't surely be able to follow the early attacks before the final climb so they will have to hope for some luck, but you could for sure think of Kenny Elissonde and Bauke Mollema of Trek who were very close to reaching their goal in Malaucène, Jakob Fuglsang and Ion Izagirre of Astana if they get the freedom to do so, or who knows even David Gaudu if he's gotten over his sickness from earlier in the week.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#98 Jelle Wallays - Stay with Guillaume Jelle, you're the road captain and we are riding really well in for a Top10, we'll have some guys trying to go into the break tomorrow but you stay with him, fetch bottles throughout the day, keep him safe at the start which will likely be sketchy, and stay with him as long as possible.
#212 Jan Bakelants - We have to try again Jan, today is for a breakaway and we've got to be in front, ideally we would be able to take Louis along and he could try to leap up in the GC, it will be a flat start though so it won't be easy, we'll try to get riders in every move and you have to be a part of them, if we do have Louis in front you should crank it up a bit to maximize that time, if not and you are there try to surprise early, after the penultimate climb ideally, try to see if you find some rouleurs and get in their wheel immediately if there is an attack.
#61 Miguel Angel Lopez - Rest up Miguel, we still have hope that you can show your best legs and maybe get a stage next in the real mountains, for that you should stay safe and try to save some energy, Enric needs our support and you should be there until the final climb, we have no need to work, Alejandro will perhaps join the break if he can, you and the guys stay with Enric, and in the final climb if it's not looking to feisty than sit up and keep something in the tank.
Prediction Time
⭐ Aranburu, Stuyven, Turgis, De Gendt, Van Moer, Fraile, Teuns, Konrad, Guerreiro, Cosnefroy, Mollema
Going for an elusive win from Kasper Asgreen, who will take the plateau after either the 3rd or 4th climb of the day to make or join a very strong group of rouleurs who he will later distance in the final climb in for a solo win.
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