What a day it was in the Puys! A long fight for the breakaway that included a strong pace across the first climb that decimated the peloton, a luxury breakaway with plenty of the best riders in the world, a spectacular finish that saw Daniel Martinez take the win in front of the Bora duo Kamna and Schachmann, and an exciting finish for the GC men that saw the first gaps directly on power to be hold to the finish, after Ineos set it up from far out, Jumbo capitalized on the work as Roglic responded and worked with Pogacar to gain valuable time on their rivals including a 40-second gain on Bernal who struggled in the top of the climb.
Positive: As expected, like last year at the Vuelta the Slovenians united and worked together against their rivals. The gains were big, Roglic is in a good position to win the Tour (albeit very early, of course) and Pogacar has jumped to second overall. Pogacar will now have to redirect his ambitions to attack Roglic which will be a new challenge. Porte with an amazing climb, Lopez aswell bouncing back after a tough day in the Pyrinees.
Negative: Bernal struggled after having the team work hard, strategy looked good but there was a loss in the end. Quintana and Bardet suffered from crashes, Quintana still managed to hold with the group but Bardet lost big time, as Guillaume Martin who's been crashing several times across the race. Bauke Mollema abandoned aswell due to the same crash envolving the previous two.
The Route
Stage 14 is another breakaway day, it's a classic day into Lyon with some climbing throughout the day including the Col du Beal (remember Froome vs Contador in the Dauphiné?), before hitting an urban circuit in the finishing city, tackling several short and punchy climbs, perfect for the spectacle that unfortunately is limited nowadays.
Although they've been modified the last kilometers remain very punchy in the center of Lyon. Despite the urban circuit all climbs and descents are in wide roads, I must say it's a very well designed stage and no matter what scenario it comes down to, it will be an exciting finish!
The Weather
Some heat and a slight breeze from the north which has been the scenario for some days already. Means usually a crosswind throughout most of the day, shouldn't affect the race much, although it means a tailwind in the finishing kilometers which may help possible attackers.
The Favourites
For me it's a really good, designed for a breakaway almost perfectly with a spectacular finish made for show in Lyon. I say for a breakaway but with the crazy sprinter action unrolled mainly by Bora on the last week they may try to keep it in check for a sprint, alongside CCC aswell they can try to control it. Either ways, the finish will be exciting, so let's imagine it won't be a day for the break then who could take it?
Well if we're talking sprinters which is a possibility you could definetely hope for a finish between riders like Sagan, who will be on the hunt for green, the only question is if the team is willing to spend another day working and risk gaining nothing from it as happened twice. But I believe they will, it's actually a good day for Sagan if they can stop a strong breakaway from going and by the looks of Bennett today at the finish it seems like he's purely at survival mode at the time. The likes of CCC have Greg van Avermaet and specially Matteo Trentin who could be eyeing both the break but in the eventuality of a sprint they can work, and Vital Concept has also been having a really good race and Coquard has a very nice punch that is enough to get over those climbs. You could also have Trek, I doubt they'll work but Jasper Stuyven has a stage that's suited to him, Luka Mezgec, Clement Venturini, Hugo Hofstetter are some good names to take into account aswell as in their best they can no doubt keep up with the peloton. And Wout van Aert too for sure, no doubt he'll be there, protecting Roglic but in case the circumstance fits he will be looking for a third win.
Then you have some rouleurs that could maybe not get a gap in the climb but right over the summit or maybe even take advantage of some deorganization in the closing kilometers, some of the names previously mentioned are good but the classics men are more to take into account, Cavagna and Kung for a start are two of my favourite names to add here, Oliver Naesen, Soren Kragh Andersen, Kasper Asgreen, Alberto Bettiol and some more opportunists can bundle in there and hope for a dash of luck to stay away.
And of course with those two pinches in the profile it could also come down to a finish between a small group of attackers, or even solo as it does suit that scenario, Alaphilippe would be an obvious first name to mention but the truth he isn't exactly taking it easy, he's had rough days on the attack both yesterday and today with no profit (as Schachmann), and he's been in the begining of the Tour defending yellow, then working for Bennett, I think it'll start getting to him. Hirschi on the other hand has saved himself well today, the question is that he already had his win so maybe he won't be agressively looking for another already, but if the break is brought back then why shouldn't he try? Alexey Lutsenko, Matej Mohoric and Benoit Cosnefroy are more examples of riders who could do it.
And then you also have breakaway specialists that should be eyeing tomorrow, it will depend on who's there to decide if they succeed but some of the names previously mentioned will for sure try to be in the move, you could add riders like Thomas de Gendt and Alessandro De Marchi into the picute very nicely.
Prediction Time
⭐ De Marchi, Cavagna, Asgreen, SK.Andersen, Naesen, Bettiol, Coquard, GV.Avermaet
Going in deep tomorrow, confident the breakaway won't be strong as there's lots of teams with interests will block it and the start is flat, Bora will want to reel it back and will have help but the win will escape atop the final climb, where my bet is that Kung will attack and go solo towards the finish.
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