A day for the breakaway as expected, no-one wanted to take charge of the chasing duties hence early on a strong group of rouleurs went up the road, in that Nils Politt was always the main instigator of the offensive and when the group hit the small hilltop near the finish, Politt was the strongest out of the remaining group of 4 and attacked his way onto a brilliant solo win, in front of Imanol Erviti and Harry Sweeny, whilst behind, despite starting off quite fast, it was a calm day for the GC riders and everyone else to recover a bit.
Positive: Politt taking a big win, for him and Bora, Erviti and Sweeny also with really good results themselves.
Negative: Nothing to note.
The Route
From Nîmes to Carcassonne in one go, a day that is long and (I'll say it) boring. A classic Tour flat stage, transition day, another one for the sprinters before getting to the Pyrinees. There isn't much to say about it, there is some rolling terrain, if teams are interested it's an easy day to control, but following the trend of the last few sprint stages that shouldn't be the case.
Slightly technical finale, the 4Km to go mark has some sketchy corners in there just before the 3Km rule protecting the GC guys, the run-up to town will be fast and relatively safe, just before the Flamme Rouge there is a dangerous corner that should see a battle into, from there on though it doesn't get much easier, although not having any corner that requires braking the road isn't very wide and everyone will need to get there well positioned in order to have a shot at the win.
The Weather
Western, bit of northwestern wind throughout the day. Although the threat of echelons are possible today the nerves didn't seem to high, the wind will be coming from the massif not from the Mediteraneen so it won't be as exposed, also largely a head/cross-headwind throughout the day. As I said, should be a slog in the saddle.
The Favourites
Rinse and repeat from today but with less chances of a breakaway succeeding. The long distances and likelyhood of no team wanting to help Deceuninck will make it seem somewhat clear that another breakaway win is coming, as it actually benefits Cavendish's chances of succeeding in the green jersey classification, the only thing that can help a bunch sprint take place is if the team wants to help the British take another win in his quest for the record, aswell as the stage being easy to control if there are mutual interests, with all the headwind and long distances that will make it so dificult for any rider going for the daily break.
The favourites are the same men there is nothing new I can tell you, Deceuninck is by far the best oiled leadout in the race and everyone will be looking for Cavendish's wheel, he is the man to beat and is the fastest sprinter in the race at the moment, it will be hard to beat him in this situation, to rival him you should have Jasper Philipsen and Nacer Bouhanni, who's teams may possibly help chasing if they want a chance of fighting for the win (if they fail to get someone in front), and also possibly Wout van Aert who'll be looking for another win.
Additionally you'll always find some outsiders that will be looking for that elusive strong result, Michael Matthews and Sonny Colbrelli are still within the fight for the points jersey and they need any help they can get, although such a finale actually plays against them, Andre Greipel is looking more lively and having the pure power he's always a contender for a sprint, as long as he can position himself well, you have the likes of Cees Bol and Mads Pedersen who on a regular scenario would be top contenders for such a finish but have so far really struggled to be in the top places, the latter one due to an early crash in the race that's been making things hard for him, adding to a cold now gotten over the weekend, there's Danny van Poppel who's been equally struggling, you have riders like Christophe Laporte, Anthony Turgis, Max Walscheid, Ivan Cortina who could unsurpringly appear in the Top10 aswell if they nail position and/or have a very good finale.
I don't think many of these will be trying as today was the real chance, and trying tomorrow could burn them for later in the race, however if the situation is favourable and the break fights it out again we should have one of these men take it:
Trek - Stuyven
Deceuninck - Ballerini, Asgreen
Movistar - Cortina, Arcas
Bora - Postleberger
Alpecin - Dillier, Rickaert
EF - Rutsch
AG2R - Godon, Naesen, Schar, GV.Avermaet
DSM - C.Pedersen, Eekhoff
Lotto Soudal - Van Moer
Bahrain - Haller
BikeExchange - Durbridge, Juul-Jensen
Astana - Aranburu
TotalEnergies - Turgis
Pretty much the same list as today yes, but several riders that were on it were in the break and looked far from their best, with the fatigue (and in Politt's case, the win) I would expect some of them to lean back, hence making the list shorter.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#78 Ide Schelling - We got a very big win today with Nils, he and Posti will take care of Wilco by themselves tomorrow as their job is done, Peter isn't with us anymore so it's all to focus on him and the remaining hilly stages, you'll have a chance there so today make sure you don't spend unnecessary energy.
#73 Wilco Kelderman - Wilco, every day in a Grand Tour is important, you'll need to remain focused today as there will be wind all day long and it won't be easy, Nils and Lukas will take care of you, Daniel is also going to be there and thereabouts, they will keep you in front all day long when there are dangerous sections and will make sure you don't have to spend any more than what you have to, you're doing good so far and we're very optimistic that you can wrap off this Tour in the best way!
#228 Pierre Rolland - Save up Pierre, we've still got a few mountain stages left where you can try something, we'll probably try to have someone up the road and the rest of you guys can hang out the back all day.
Prediction Time
⭐ Bol, Greipel, Matthews, Asgreen, Ballerini, Stuyven, Cortina, Van Moer, Turgis
It's not an easy stage to predict, 50/50 as far as I'm concerned, today did go for a breakaway though so my instinct tells me sprint is coming, and in that case I believe the win should be coming easy for Mark Cavendish once again.
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