The breakaway has done a 3 out of 3 in the mountain stages and this time it was Wout van Aert who bounced back from a less good race so far to finally take a big win, and in what way! After getting in the highly contested breakaway he successfully distances the competition in the final ascent, including Alaphilippe, and the Trek duo who finished second and third Kenny Elissonde and Bauke Mollema. Ineos chased all day long, only in the final kilometers were there attacks in the peloton, Vingegaard attacked and gained a big gap on everyone but in the descent was eventually brought back by the chasing group of Pogacar, Uran and Carapaz who arrived together with him.
Positive: Wout van Aert taking the win and finally bringing success to Jumbo, Vingegaard also did absolutely brilliant but didn't capitalize that much on it because of the descent.
Negative: Mas lost around minute and a half on the podium competition, O'Connor cracked on the Ventoux and lost around 4 dropping to 5th and David Gaudu reportedly suffered with a stomach bug, and has fallen out of GC contention.
The Route
A transitional day, another one the sprinter teams will be happy to control as it doesn't stretch out much and doesn't have much climbing to deal with. The race goes south towards the Pyrinees, this should favour the opposite kind of rider but it's a stage with a little threat though with 12.5Km to go, at that time a little hilltop will have it's summit, it's a short and explosive stage and for sure some riders may be planning on making a move there, get a gap and then seize the slightly downhill aproach into Nîmes to survive as best as possible. That scenario needs to be taken into consideration, but the bunch sprint is the likely scenario.
Unlike most sprint stages so far though this isn't set to be a very safe finale, the stage will go through the center of the city which will include some narrow points, lot of audience and some sharp corners, will make for a very nervous finale all the way into the line. Inside the final 3Km there will be a sharp dangerous corner, and the final corner comes with 900 meters to go, with a roundabout as a minor obstacle with 300 meters to go before the line.
The Weather
There will be some wind from the northwest with some strong gusts which will be dangerous, there will be several crosswind sections throughout the stage and the intensity throughout the day may see some damage being done, either way it is a guarrantee that every GC rider will try to be in the front and will make for a very fast and tense day right up to the finish. The head will also be present as it will almost hit the 30's.
The Favourites
Not going to lie this is essentially the same write-up as the last sprint, because the stage should be very similar indeed, one where in theory I would expect a bunch sprint to be the case for the end, one where Deceuninck will want to control because they've got the fastest man, a strong team and a certain record in sight, and one where the threat of splits from the wind will be present.
Breakaway possibilities are real though, with the dominance of Cavendish for sure other sprinter teams won't be controlling the race and will instead try to send riders up the road, blow up the race, which Deceuninck may allow because it would protect their green jersey, and with the amount of quality rouleurs and tail/crosswind throughout the day it can be very hard to reel it back in. The fast pace that may come from the constant fight for positioning from the GC teams can help shorten the gap though. In that possibility and seeing his form is at very high level already Wout van Aert will always be a favourite to take that win, runner-up in the last sprint and one that has less fatigue from not having the jersey fight throughout the race, and should thrive in windy conditions, you have Jasper Philipsen and Nacer Bouhanni who've been very consistent and looking for points mainly from these fast finishes, the other green jersey contenders Michael Matthews and Sonny Colbrelli who will also be on the mix always to try and stay in touch with the maximum points, Peter Sagan too although this year he's certainly struggling to be in that fight.
Additionally you'll always find some outsiders that will be looking for that elusive strong result, Andre Greipel is looking more lively and having the pure power he's always a contender for a sprint, as long as he can position himself well, you have the likes of Cees Bol and Mads Pedersen who on a regular scenario would be top contenders for such a finish but have so far really struggled to be in the top places, the latter one due to an early crash in the race that's been making things hard for him, there's Danny van Poppel who's been equally struggling, you have riders like Christophe Laporte, Anthony Turgis, Max Walscheid, Ivan Cortina who could unsurpringly appear in the Top10 aswell if they nail position and/or have a very good finale, or even take advantage of a possible echelons situation.
In case a strong breakaway does go ahead, which is quite possible, and succeeds, you should take into account these names:
Trek - Stuyven, Theuns
Deceuninck - Ballerini, Asgreen
Movistar - Cortina, Arcas
Bora - Politt, Postleberger
Groupama - Kung
Alpecin - Dillier, Rickaert
EF - Bissegger, Rutsch
AG2R - Godon, Naesen, Schar,GV.Avermaet
DSM - C.Pedersen, Eekhoff
Lotto Soudal - De Gendt, Van Moer
Bahrain - Haller
BikeExchange - Durbridge, Juul-Jensen
Astana - Aranburu
TotalEnergies - Turgis
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#26 Richie Porte - Stay safe Richie, we'll take care of Richard today it will be dangerous but it's not your job to do it, you make sure you stay in the back of the peloton, and above all avoid crashes as we'll need you in the mountains to come.
#3 Rui Costa - It will be a hard day Rui, we need to keep Tadej safe in front, last year he took a hit in the crosswinds and we don't want that to happen again. Although he's got a good gap we never want to loose unnecessary time, Mikkel and Vegard will have the main job throughout the day but you have the responsability to help where needed, to keep them well positioned so that if it blows up they have their best legs to power through and, if possible, help in crosswind attempts, although it's not our plan to try and create them.
#218 Georg Zimmerman - Day to take it easy Georg, we have to cover Danny for today as he's our best option, we've lost a couple guys so you should stay in front, trying to have him and Boy well positioned, whilst at the same time, if possible, support Louis who's having a nice 15th place at the moment which we want to keep.
Prediction Time
⭐ Bol, Pedersen, Sagan, Asgreen, Ballerini, Stuyven, Cortina, Postleberger, Bissegger, Van Moer, Turgis
It's not the first time and for good reason, I think a breakaway will succeed tomorrow and Brent van Moer is my favourite pea in the pod for the job, taking advantage of the battle between the teams with sprinters and the lack of Ewan in his team to go for it and succeed from a finale perfectly suited for him.
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