A much calmer day in the Tour, the wind marked presence but it calmed things down throughout most of the day, the end of the stage was relatively stressful with the wind blowing but no damage was done, a bunch sprint came to decide the stage and as expected Deceuninck delivered Mark Cavendish in the perfect place, who got his third stage win, in front of Wout van Aert and Jasper Philipsen.
Positive: Cavendish taking another win wrapping off another perfect Deceuninck stage.
Negative: Nothing to note.
The Route
A highly antecipated day in the Tour de France as we're set to have a double ascent of the Mont Ventoux and a downhill finish into Malucène, in what should be the highlight of the 2nd week and keep all the GC guys on their toes. It's a 200 kilometer ride that will climax in the final ascent, a day for the GC men to fight for the win surely as the start is pan-flat in Provence, then slowly going up with the Col de la Liguière which will set things up for the first ride up Ventoux.
Not via it's hardest side but through Sault instead, the opening 16 kilometers are relatively gentle, a slow rise until Chalet Reynard, from there on the riders will indeed go up the final kilometers of the ascent, it will summit with 77Km to go, and take the riders down the descent that will take them down to Malaucène.
The final climb though is where we are set to have the fireworks, it summits with 22 kilometers to go and is the whole and full ascent of the Mont Ventoux (the final 15.8 from Saint Estève in the profile). It's a pure climber's climb, straightforward and steep all the way to Chalet Reynard, from there on the road gets very exposed, the gradients sometimes soothen out, it's nevertheless a very hard climb all the way to the top.
The descent into the finish isn't super technical but it will feature some hard sections, it will be a very fast descent as there are 1500 meters to descend in a short distance. The riders will get into town and just ride a small loop around it's streets until they get to the finish line.
The Weather
Gusts from the northwest, a tailwind in the hidden brutal part of the Ventoux but it will surely be a severe crosswind in it's final kilometers, very exposed and will make it incredibly hard for riders going solo even if there is crowd blocking it, and what they can't block is the rain that is sure to be falling throughout the day, likely both climbs will be done in the rain, and the long descent into Malaucène can turn into a major challenge of it's own.
The Favourites
Flat start, not the ideal for those looking to get in the breakaway, I reckon we will get a very diverse breakaway, with rouleurs and puncheurs in the mix and also some sprinters looking for those IS points. This isn't good for the chances of it succeeding, on the first ascent of the Ventoux and descent it will split up, and the final climb is brutal, not easy if you don't have the top climbers in front with some minutes ahead of the peloton. GC riders to battle it out for the stage win is very possible, the rain will help riders as Tadej Pogacar and Ben O'Connor who had dominant performances in the two mountain stages so far, Pogacar is without a doubt the man to beat, so far he's shown no signs of slowing down so the fight for the podium will very possibly help the Slovenian into another stage win, either ways there will be a big battle between the podium contenders, as now Ben O'Connor finds himself in a defensive position that he can use and find alliances with UAE, whilst behind you will surely see the likes of Richard Carapaz and possibly David Gaudu attack the competition, as Rigoberto Uran and Jonas Vingegaard will likely be more conservative as the TT in the end will always benefit them, you should always have Enric Mas and Wilco Kelderman in the fight, as non-explosive climbers they will be well suited for such a long ascent.
Again, the quality is immense isn't it? It's hard to choose who can take the win because if the win is in front, so it might be between those that manage to find themselves in front, which will at some point depend on luck. Nevertheless, the big names should be the majority of those who have been in the fight for the wins in the weekend, we have the KOM fight to take place once more, specially as the final climb has double points, we have Nairo Quintana leading the classification, alongside Michael Woods, Wout Poels and Sergio Higuita we will surely have them all trying to get in, not only for those points but also for the possibility of being the first one reaching the finish line.
Most of those have teammates that can do similar, Higuita has Ruben Guerreiro to back him up in the rough terrain, Michael Woods has Dan Martin who is starting to come into form and Poels has several riders in Bahrain who will be there or thereabouts, however Dylan Teuns is looking specially strong in the race until now with an impressive win in Le Grand-Bornand, the weather will be on his side and he can do something big again, aswell as Le Creusot winner Matej Mohoric who will absolutely love the long and wet descents, even though he should struggle in the high mountain. Additionally you have Astana with the likes of Ion Izagirre, Jakob Fuglsang and Omar Fraile who should all do well in the rain and do seem to be on the verge of a big win, you have the pure climbers Simon Yates and Miguel Angel Lopez who aren't having their best legs, nonetheless have suiting ground, Lopez specially as he won on this ascent last month, we have also the likes of Patrick Konrad, Sepp Kuss or Bauke Mollema who on their best day can fly up these, but need to first have that one good day in their legs, and of course Julian Alaphilippe, not being the best of climbers the descents make him a very proper contender for the stage.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#74 Patrick Konrad - Patrick, day for the break you know that right? It's another opportunity, you've been doing good so far, time to try again, today it will be harder for the little guys to go in front so we'll support you in it, Lukas and Nils at least should have green card to be there and help you across, pace also if needed. As for the tactics it's quite simple, save as much as possible for the final climb, enter the first Ventoux descent well positioned as it will be dangerous, in the final ascent don't be shy to go deep early on if you need to follow someone, don't go into the red but be ready to spend a lot of time close to it, the decisive portion of the climb is it's first half, if someone goes up the road and sustains the power they're gone. Take risks in the descents, they will be necessary, this is the damn Tour de France!
#156 Harry Sweeny - Rest day for you Harry go it? It won't be easy but stay in the pack, drop back with the grupetto and stay with them until the finish, your best days will come later in the week.
#166 Wout Poels - Make sure you get in that break Wout, we'll try to have as many guys as possible in front and you have to be involved early on, stay with Sonny and Matej mainly as they've got the pure power to propell those moves, you have to get as many points as possible, sprint in the first two climbs, don't be shy to go deep. If you survive the first descent then try to hang on in the final Ventoux ascent, there may be some secondary points on display even if stronger riders are in front, make sure you eat well, drink well and give it your all!
Prediction Time
⭐ Carapaz, O'Connor, Uran, Bilbao, Woods, Poels, Mohoric, Fraile, Konrad, Alaphilippe
Not an easy stage to predict, I think a GC battle may decide the day though, and with the rough conditions and current form it's hard to see anyone beating Tadej Pogacar into it.
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