Ben O'Connor took the race by the horns and dominated what was another nasty brutal stage that had rain from start to finish. The Australian took the win after being a part of the early break and making the decisive move still in the first climbs of the day. On the ascent to Tignes he was clearly the only fresh rider in the head of the race, dispatched everyone and took a win with an incredible gap of over 5 minutes over Mattia Cattaneo and Sonny Colbrelli. In the GC fight it was a calmer day, UAE controlled the stage, Pogacar won some more time in the final kilometers as the main contenders to the podium arrived relatively together.
Positive: O'Connor, taking a massive stage win and leaping from 14th straight to 2nd in the GC and now becoming a big contender to finish on the podium. Pogacar extending his lead over the rest, Mas finishing very well despite an early bad crash, Colbrelli racking up big points for the green jersey, Quintana moving into KOM jersey.
Negative: Roglic, Van der Poel and Merlier between the abandons today, big riders that will be missed. Lutsenko and Gaudu had dificulty in the final kilometers and lost around a minute in the podium fight.
The Route
Two days in the Alps were enough this year, the sprinters will have their next opportunity as they leave the big mountains through it's deep valleys, as they head towards the finish in Valence in the Rhône valley.
The stage isn't overall hard, it has some small ascents but they shouldn't impact the stage, if they are to happen it should be in the uncategorized ascent summiting with 36.5Km to go, 5.3Km at 3.8%, it's close enough to the finish where the pace can stay high until the finish, but the question is if any sprinter will be dropped. If not, which is likely, everyone is heading for a compact bunch sprint.
It's a weird finale, the route will be just outside the center of the city in a relatively safe way, wide avenue and it goes almost all the way into the finish, with the exception of a slight change of direction towards the right with around just 200 meters to go. Won't be overly dangerous but it's dangerously close to a high speed finish...
The Weather
The weather changes completely as the riders enter the 30's almost, they will have the wind to cool down though, but it will be very stressful as the intensity will be quite high and will be relatively exposed, lucky for the riders it comes from the southwest so it will be a block headwind throughout most of the stage, but that will chance with 9.5Km to go, there should be a massive battle to get into the small town of Beaumont-Lès-Valence, the exit will be exposed and will have a strong cross-tailwind from the left, and if felt the sprint in Valence will also be in a tailwind, very fast and very dangerous.
The Favourites
The sprinter peloton is thinned out, not only have some of the best not taken to the start in Brest, others have in the meantime abandoned the race or didn't make the time cut into Tignes, and so the list of possible winners gets lower and lower.
We'll have a very fast tailwind sprint, a good one for the powerhouse sprinters that have so far failed to succeed other than Merlier's win on stage 3, tomorrow the ones that will be favoured the most, of course in the case that we have a regular bunch sprint, will be Cees Bol and Mads Pedersen who have struggled so far to get a good result in the fast finishes but, both having strong and experienced leadouts they should be able to finally do something. You could add Wout van Aert into that list, he hasn't yet gotten the result he's been expecting from this Tour but as he'll be targeting the sprints aswell now he can very well succeed as he's done so last year.
On the other side you have Mark Cavendish, two time stage winner and current leader of the points classification, that alongside Jasper Philipsen and Nacer Bouhanni make for the most consistent sprinters so far who won't have a favourable finale tomorrow but will surely be in once again for a chance to take a stage win.
Adding into the mix you will then have second and third in the points classification Michael Matthews and Sonny Colbrelli, who probably won't be in contention to fight for the win, but will be looking to add some more points in the classification, things aren't looking pretty for Peter Sagan but his ease in the positioning battle means that he's always one to consider, and will always be ranked well in the bunch sprints.
Adding to that there will be some wildcards, with the reduced sprinter field we can surely see the presence of Danny van Poppel and Andre Greipel who've struggled so far, they won't have as much problems with the positioning so will have a better opportunity to fight for a good result, additionally you could see riders like Christophe Laporte and Max Walscheid towards the front, they've shown intentions in some of the sprints so far.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#154 Philippe Gilbert - Phil, enjoy the stage, stick around the back, nerves will be high and you don't want to risk having a crash towards the end, stay in the back and let go the peloton when the pace gets sharp, maybe you can still go for a stage later in the race.
#143 Cees Bol - Cees today is all about trusting your teammates, some more sprinters dropped out of the race after this weekend but you did really well, and it's time to transform that form into results, it will be a very fast finale with a tailwind and that's exactly what you need, we need a strong result! You trust the guys, they know how to do their work very well, you make sure you follow them flawlessly, Tiesj will help you all stay positioned into that big corner with 9.5Km, from there on Soren will take care of the leadout, keep everyone well positioned, if echelons form we should be in front, and we have the pure power to carry it, in the final kilometers you will have Joris, Nils and finally Casper leading you out into the line, it is crucial that the timing is good, you must enter the final corner in the best position possible, 2nd spot is the ideal, they will know and you have the info too, stay on the right side of the road, sprint right out of the slight turn, if you do it properly it will be hard to see anyone get around you, let's get it!
#117 Neilson Powless - The big guys will take care of Rigo today Neilson so you can be more relaxed and ride around the back of the pack, stay with them throughout the day nonetheless in case something happens, Jonas, Michael and Stefan will easily take care of the job in the end though and they may try to split it up in the crosswinds, you worry about saving up for later in the race.
Prediction Time
⭐ WV.Aert, Pedersen, Sagan, Colbrelli, Van Poppel, Greipel, Colbrelli, Laporte
I think Mark Cavendish will still nail it though, having the great leadout that's helped him so far succeed once again, delivering him into perfect positioning and he can capitalize on it.
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