It was an exciting day and a successful traverse into the Pyrinees. With an average of 39Km/h it was a full-on day, with the breakaway only settling in already inside the Col de Hourcère where Marc Hirschi went solo. Everyone else was caught and the peloton blasted through the climbs, with Pogacar and surprisingly Bernal being agressive in Marie Blanque. In the end it came down to a short group sprint with Pogacar netting the win in front of a disapointed Hirschi who did a fantastic stage and deserved fully to raise his arms, Roglic finished third and is the new leader with Bernal and Landa also finishing with the group. With regrouping in the descent most of the GC riders managed to limit their losses well, except for Yates and Lopez who fell in a lower group loosing 54 seconds (which could be worst to be honest, but still important time).
Positive: I got to give it to Hirschi still, it's little content but he's now in the fight for GC, it was an incredible ride that deserves recognition. Bernal did very well and looked sharp today with Landa also looking good. Porte and Bardet also looked quite good which is personally satisfying.
Negative: Yates and Lopez were those who suffered more in the climb, Aru abandons and Buchmann lost over 4 minutes.
The Route
Week 2 starts with a pancake... Sorry a flat stage, there's around 500 meters of climbing in the whole stage which I'm sure anyone reading this can do in an hour close to home, interestingly though (and my honest applause) this "boring" stage can very well be completely a crosswind spotlight. It can happen, most of the stage is close to the Atlantic.
The finish isn't overly dangerous despite some roundabouts near the finish, which is located just outside of the town of Saint-Martin-de-Ré, it's very exposed which can make the sprint be unexpected as mistakes in the timing can be even more important than usual.
The Weather
It isn't strong but there's a notable northern gust. Now for most this will be a relief because most of the stage will see a solid headwind, however after leaving Rochelle this will turn into a crosswind, from 19 to 7Km to the finish there will be a significant crosswind that includes a long passing in the bridge that will take them to the island where the stage will finish. Tensions will be high as the GC teams will battle alongside the sprinters for the best positioning possible.
The Favourites
In a stage as flat as this you can't consider anyone who isn't a sprinter a favourite, any breakaway that may come around won't have bright chances of surviving and, of course, Covid allowing, we should have a bunch sprint (maybe with a compact peloton maybe with a split group).
In case of crosswinds splitting it up riders like Sam Bennett and Mads Pedersen could really come benefited, with really strong and experienced teams for the job they wll surely be looking into the most agressive side whereas in the opposite falls Ewan who is the classic "needs to first win the fight for positioning"in order to be within a chance of winning. There really isn't that much more that I can insight for you at this point it's pretty much just a renaming the names that have been present in the last few sprints. Also Sagan always needs to be considered, great with crosswinds and a good sprint.
Cees Bol has been having a great Tour so far but has been unlucky in the sense that there's always someone topping him, however Sunweb are another strong team in case there's echelons and in terms of leadout they're up there too. Then through Elia Viviani, Bryan Coquard, Matteo Trentin, Alexander Kristoff, who knows maybe Wout van Aert again are the outsiders can sneak across and maybe net a win. With Nizzolo abandoning and Edvald Boasson Hagen finishing runner-up some days ago he must be considered, it's his type of day and Max Walscheid should like it aswell, can be interesting to see how they'll do. Luka Mezgec, Theuns/Stuyven, Hugo Hofstetter and Niccolo Bonifazio are the other outsiders that can get in there on the hunt for a good result.
Prediction Time
⭐ Kristoff, Theuns, Trentin, Mezgec, Coqaurd, Viviani, EB.Hagen
I'm going with a win for Deceuninck, after Julian Alaphilippe gave up on the GC the team's sole focus is now on stages. There's proper power to put Bennett in good position in any situation, so once again I put my faith in the luck of the Irish!
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