The Route
This year's Tour starts in Brest, Bretagne, with a hilly stage suited to the puncheurs, with the classic rolling roads of the region to make for an unusual start to the race, with a different kind of rider to be the favourite to take the first yellow jersey of the race.
The stage is close to one long loup with around 2800 meters of climbing, spread evenly throughout the day as there is no actual big climb throughout the day, just a combination of short climbs that will slowly put some fatigue on the riders' legs. The final 45 kilometers have quite some climbing, rarely any flat road, but no climb is particularly complicated, we'll have the GC teams come to the fore for sure and try to keep everyone safe. With 18.5 and 8Km to go there will be the summit of a couple little climbs, surely some of the puncheur teams will try to force the pace and make sure the sprinters already enter the final climb in trouble. The run-up to the climb is set to be furious with a non-technical descent and a flat run-up in the finishing town of Landerneau.
The climb isn't that hard, it will surely be a sprint finish between some climbers, puncheurs and punchy sprinters, however you realize that if the climb is seriously attacked we can see a quite reduced bunch up in there, as the riders will enter the climb in quite some distress already from the lead-out, and the first 1.4Km are quite rough, straightforward but with steep gradients in there, the pace can be very sharp and burn-out some riders before smoothening out.
The second half of the climb is flatter, whoever resisted surely will make it to the line. The final couple hundred meters are essentially flat giving the heavier riders some advantage, it will also be the most prone to attacks though as there won't be teammates aplenty and the faster roads will make it hard to reel in attacks.
The Weather
Smooth temperature and wind conditions, just a slight breeze from the northeast that shouldn't have any impact on the stage.
The Favourites
The finale is quite interesting. No matter what you may imagine the stage won't be decided before the final climb, breakaways or early attacks won't succeed as plenty of riders will be looking for the win, for the yellow jersey, and also because the intense fight for position to the base of the climb would shred any kind of gap from someone still in front. The final third of the stage is in a constant up-and-down, the GC teams above all will be constantly swarming the front, flying in the dscents and slowing down in the climbs, and the puncheur's teams should look to force the pace in those. The final effort won't just be the ascent, the leadout into the climb should be furious, because there's a sharp turn into the first 1.4Km of the climb that are the steepest, and after that part there won't be any rest despite flattening out until the end. Nevertheless there are sprinters that can make it through the climb, well "sprinters", the two big favourites for the stage are Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert. The first doesn't always master positioning and could find his main obstacle there, as for van Aert he won't have the full team focus as Roglic will be taken care off for the finale. They should be able to resist any attack though and have the punch to win at the line, competition in a sprint should come from the likes of Sonny Colbrelli who's been riding fabulously this season and getting the wins he deserves, Peter Sagan who seems to be back to his good form after a slow start to the season and Michael Matthews who's an ideal rider for such a tough finish with a flat finale, but always seems to be distant from the win.
You have some more sprinters who can sometimes get over bumps like this and be in contention, although they don't have the sprint of the previous riders mentioned, like Christophe Laporte, Alex Aranburu, Bryan Coquard, Davide Ballerini or Magnus Cort Nielsen, who are nice outsiders for the top places, others like Greg van Avermaet and Ivan Cortina can both go for it in a sprint or a late attack, they should be able to climb well. Riders like Arnaud Démare and Caleb Ewan have in the past shown great climbing performances, but tomorrow shouldn't be their day.
Then there are the puncheurs, that should be looking to attack the climb, or at least want it to be as hard as possible before the sprint. Attacks will be marked, and such a finish is good for the classics specialists who know how to time their moves perfectly. Julian Alaphilippe knows how to do that perfectly if he sets his mind to it, he's got good enough sprint to be able to wait, I would say Marc Hirschi and Benoit Cosnefroy at their best level could contest but attacking seems to be their best shot at the moment. Regarding the GC riders they will be there, splits and the possibility of bonus seconds will see them at the front, Thomas, Roglic and Pogacar can sprint very well so for sure they'll be at the front, Alejandro Valverde and the Israel duo Michael Woods and Dan Martin may also try, although it's not hard enough of a climb for them to really show themselves.
There's also the possibility that a late attack can succeed. How late? Well right after the steep section of the climb finishes, so in the second half. Why? Well most teams will burn through domestiques in the leadout, a lot more will be burnt in the first half of the climb, and when they go over the steeper part the GC teams have little to worry about so they have no need to pace and chase attacks unless it's big climbers on the move. From there on the riders looking to sprint should keep their powder dry and will rely on domestiques to do the job, but with van der Poel and van Aert likely there the motivation to work won't be high, and the false-flat not only allows a lot of riders to make a move, but also makes it much harder to chase down moves, and you've got riders in great form like some puncheurs, Astana's Alexey Lutsenko and Omar Fraile, you can add others like Simon Clarke, Dylan Teuns, Aurelien Paret-Peintre, Bora duo Patrick Konrad and Ide Schelling and Warren Barguil, climbers like Bauke Mollema, David Gaudu and Sergio Higuita and rouleurs like the Danes Kasper Asgreen and Soren Kragh Andersen.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#84 Jacopo Guarnieri - The real days for you are ahead Jacopo, tomorrow the focus is in keeping David safe but it won't be your job to do so, it's a hard finale. Stay with Arnaud, there's an IS with 62Km to go and that's the focus for the day, lead him out there, green jersey is a possibility. From there on stay with him, it's unlikely that he can go over the final climb but try to stay near the front nonetheless, pace a bit if possible.
#38 Rick Zabel - Rick this isn't a day for you, however we've got Michael and Dan who can do really well today so you're being called to do some early positioning work. In the sprints you'll back Andre but today you'll be getting some bottles and help above all keep Michael as close to the front as possible, no big pressure, the guys will take over for the final little hills before the finish.
#94 Jesús Herrada - It's an interesting day Jesús, you've got great form and a green card to make a move tomorrow. Guillaume isn't going for GC so tomorrow we mainly focus on getting Christophe to the base of the climb as well as possible, you try and stay in the leadout's wheel. In the final climb keep the powder dry in the first half, it's steep and someone will always follow, if you feel quite good try to attack just before the flamme rouge it can present a great opportunity for a big win, if you feel you have no chance of attacking check to see where Christophe is, help him position for the sprint if he survives, if he doesn't try to go for a Top10, still a nice result and keeps you in the possibility of getting yellow on another day.
Prediction Time
⭐ Valverde, Cortina, Laporte, Cort, Aranburu, Hirschi, Lutsenko, Fraile, Mollema, Higuita
What I can be sure of is that this finale is going to be massively exciting! I think the reduced bunch sprint will be the successful scenario, and after seeing Mathieu van der Poel climbing in Suisse I'm confident he can hang on and keep his traditional sharp punch into the sprint, to take the first yellow jersey of the Tour.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!
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