The Route
The race starts off in Nice with a hilly stage, with a loop between Aspremont and the sea, it's a stage for the sprinters but at the same time it isn't at all a bad day for a breakaway. That long flat section to the line harms their chances, but for sure lots of riders will give it their all for a shot at yellow in the hills.
The climbs through the circuit go around gradients of 5%, the final beat of climbing comes with 37.5Km to go so it's still quite far from the finish, they aren't tough climbs they're meant to be climbed in the big ring, so it shouldn't upset most of the sprinters unless there's a nuclear pace up them.
The finishing straight is everything but technical. The final kilometers take place by the ocean without the slightest bit of technical issues, pure leadout train terrain.
The Weather
Small risk or some showers towards the end, not the most inspiring weather to start the race off with however it isn't a dangerous finish so it shouldn't cause much of an issue even in worst case scenario, there's a southeastern breeze, it doesn't help the breakaway's chances as most of the run-up back to the Nice city center will have a headwind, before a little crosswind section up to the finish (but don't worry there won't be splits because of it).
The Favourites
I remember Thomas de Gendt some months ago writing he was targeting to be in yellow at the Tour. On the back of that statement and a suiting profile for him and lots of rouleurs, I've always considered the possibility of a breakaway win on the opening stage, but as time went on I realized that's more of a dream than a something likely, more so because the weather won't help and I think those who really want to take that opportunity will wait for stage 2.
So with that said I'm a firm believer it will end in a sprint tomorrow, a pure sprint, because nowadays it's rare to find sprinters who can't climb at least decently and here they certainly can. The finish is far from technical so the leadout won't be essential, it'll give the opportunity to many riders however starting from pole-position will be of a big help, and in that position I expect Sam Bennett to be, he's got Michael Morkov with him and a leadout ful of powerful riders, although I wouldn't say it's the stronger overall leadout they have the experience, and will be battling Caleb Ewan the strongest sprinter of the last edition who is back to get some more stages and who's got a full leadout behind him with Luge and de Buyst by his side and a team fully at his disposition.
These are the main two contenders, the two big guys who will be discussing most pure sprints, but the truth is PLENTY of riders will be peeking even though the sprinter startlist isn't as strong as in previous years. Obvious first name is Peter Sagan, hunting an eight green jersey, he doesn't have that pure sprint but he's impossible to dislodge from the leadouts, there's Giacomo Nizzolo who's coming in flying form and has a really good leadout in Gibbons, Boasson Hagen and Walscheid, they have the power and if they find the coordination Nizzolo seems to have the legs to beat the competition.
Then there's a long list of sprinters looking for a strong win to add to their palmares (or, add another one, in the case of some) in Elia Viviani who has Laporte and Consonni to support his ambitions, Alexander Kristoff who's a three-time stage winner, Cees Bol leading Sunweb's sprints with a strong leadout and also as an underdog despite his obvious talent, and also Luka Mezgec who's coming in great form after taking the points classification in Pologne and a runner-up place in GP Plouay.
Then follows a big list of strong sprinters looking for those top places, you could consider Wout van Aert but I'm unsure if he'll contest the sprint, we'll also see tomorrow if he has ambitions of targeting green as the intermediate sprints also begin (to me, one of the most exciting things of the season actually). You have Matteo Trentin, Bryan Coquard, Niccolo Bonifazio, Andre Greipel, Edward Theuns (or maybe Mads Pedersen?) and Sonny Colbrelli as outsider contenders for this widely contested sprint.
Prediction Time
⭐ Bol, Viviani, Mezgec, WV.Aert, Trentin, Greipel
This image, this is is what I expect to see tomorrow, Ewan is going to win and take yellow for sure he's a beast, he's got big competition but I think there's 0 reasons why he would be below anyone.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!
Comments