Yellow Jersey
Tadej Pogacar
The defending champion is coming back to try and revalidate his title. Although just 22 he's coming as the current title holder and man to beat after Jumbo and Roglic have shifted the pressure onto him, and he won't be able to have an "easy" (aka not being attacked) ride into Paris, making his challenge a lot more difficult. However he's proved to be able to handle pressure incredibly, despite making mistakes he was the strongest rider last year and his aproach to the Tour alongside his block has been rather alternative as the squad rode Slovenia where he easily took home the overall. The youngster has won the UAE Tour and Tirreno Adriatico in dominant fashion this year, alongside his LBL win he could just forget the rest of the season and it would be really successful, however he's capable of more, and with a stronger team (which he'll need) he has good chances of being in the head of the race by the end of it. The team built around him over the last few years is now very much conected, Majka and McNulty should be there in the mountains the best, Hirschi and Formolo can be very valuable in the hilly stages and early support, Bjerg and Laengen will provide the horsepower to keep him safe. The team, even with Pogacar, has always had a breakaway reputation, likely they will still have it with the amount of puncheurs they bring in, Rui Costa surely one to take attention. The real challenge of the team I would say is how united they can be, as in terms of form I think they can function really well, although they need to prove themselves.
Primoz Roglic
One team that doesn't need to prove anything is Jumbo. I stand by my opinion that they did the perfect race last year, only to have a surprise result in the time-trial where Roglic would on paper have the advantage. Although their best strategy could be the same, they won't do so, specially as Ineos should be back to their best in this edition. Although you could say Kruijswijk and Kuss can target the GC in theory, all the focus will be on the Slovenian to have a shot at redemption and rightfully so because he looks almost as unbeatable as he did last year. Having (almost) won Paris-Nice after a trebble of stage wins and taking home the Itzulia overall his stage-racing form is just as strong, he's taking a more conservative aproach to the race with no racing beforehand which I've written about and agree with. The team is almost the same, very strong in the mountains, very strong in the flat where Tony Martin and Mike Teunissen should be in charge, Wout van Aert should come into his best form in the final weeks but always help wherever he can aswell as battling for some stage wins.
Ineos
Last year Bernal abandoned with back issues, Carapaz was put in the race last minute without his best form and Sivakov had crashes derail his campaign. It was almost total disaster, they look to make up this year and bring a scary strong team, that luckily for them is not seen as the one to beat which can be used to their advantage. They are coming in with 4 riders capable of contesting the GC and that can be a very valuable weapon, Richie Porte won the Dauphiné and in theory is coming in as the rider who is most likely of the 4 to be in domestique duties at a certain point of the race, he's also the only one who doesn't have a Grand Tour win in his palmares. Sure thing though his TT capacity can be valuable, alongside Geraint Thomas they will love the route, whilst on the other side the team also has options to make an agressive race with Richard Carapaz mainly, who will love the high mountain stages, and Tao Hart who is coming into form and can be one of the biggest wildcards in the race. The team behind them is just as strong, as experience and quality are combined, with Kwiatkowski, Castroviejo, van Baarle and Rowe to fill in the highly disputed spots remaining.
Miguel Angel Lopez & Enric Mas
It has always been a reason of debate the focus Movistar has put in the Tour as the route doesn't suit their leaders, however taking into account the distribution of GC contenders on each GT it makes a little more sense, the leadership should be shared between Miguel Angel Lopez and Enric Mas who have had a very quiet start to the season and are coming into form at the right time. As they have last year, building form in the Dauphiné, they dominated the Mont Ventoux DC and will be looking to make damage in the mountain stages, seizing also the underdog position they find themselves in to flow under the radar of the teams above. Alejandro Valverde, Marc Soler, Carlos Verona and Ivan Cortina are between the riders set to support, it's a very experienced team that can do really well.
Rigoberto Uran
Until some weeks ago he was another rider completely off the radar, very consistent but rarely in the fight for the wins anymore. However in Suisse all that changed, Rigoberto Uran is one of the most experienced Grand Tour riders in the peloton and his qualities seem to still be at their best, the Colombian took a very impressive win in the Suisse MTT and finished second on the overall and is coming in as a Top10 contender for the Tour. His experience however, combined with his strong TT skills and underdog status can be of much benefit to him, the same way they were in 2017 when he finished runner-up in the race. Although the team should be equally focused on getting stage wins he won't really need a lot of support as he can follow the wheels, Sergio Higuita has rarely been mentioned on the aproach to the race and also has the capacity to do something big.
Bahrain
After their last months' success they must be mentioned, the team is on a roll with several riders coming into great form and, also as outsiders, Bahrain comes with several cards that can be in the GC fight and do some damage. Pello Bilbao didn't go for the GC at the Giro for obvious reasons but with some rest in his legs in the meantime he may very well be considering, however the focus should be on Jack Haig and his GC tilt. For sure he won't be a man covered, but as a very consistent stage-racer, strong time-trialist with good form and a good team behind him the Australia finally has a great chance to fulfil his potential. Wout Poels is also a good card to play, although he needs better form than the one he had in Suisse, but in theory he is targeting the overall aswell.
Wilco Kelderman & Emanuel Buchmann
There's the Bora squad aswell. With Peter Sagan on board they will always have a secondary focus, however they bring a trio of riders that can do quite well, Patrick Konrad surely more set to stage wins however the team has two proven leaders for the GC, one being Emanuel Buchmann who's said to come to help in the team goals, however he can definitely do more than that if he's managed to train well before the Tour, he abandoned the Giro whilst in brilliant form, he's a joker for this race but one who can seriously finish quite strongly. The leader on paper is Wilco Kelderman, after his Giro performance last year he's proven to still be a strong force in the GC field, he's had Top5 performances in Catalunya and more recently the Dauphiné despite a serious crash in the off-season, the ruite suits him very well and he's another rider who can ride in the shadow for a long time and take advantage of his non-pressured position within the climbers.
Outsiders
The list of climbers is massive though, the Tour de France has an incredible startlist every year and this one is no exception. There are plenty climbers I'll mention in the KOM classification, so if you think some names are missing be sure to check that section out. Some I didn't include because they have stated they will be fighting for the overal, it will be a hard battle into the Top10 however but you have very talented riders like Ben O'Connor who's coming in as AG2R's leader, Lucas Hamilton as BikeExchange's option for the overall who have been consistent and without any major mishap can surely finish in the Top10 with their best legs, you have Michael Woods who is having the GC as a goal but will seriously struggle because of the amount of TT kilometers on the menu, David Gaudu who is Groupama's leader and honestly he's a brilliant climber but he will be another rider who is set to suffer bigtime in the individual challenges.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Roglic, Pogacar
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Thomas, Carapaz
⭐ Buchmann, Hamilton, O'Connor, Woods, Gaudu, Alaphilippe
I think Primoz Roglic will get his revenge, his consistency should be flawless this year with the lack of previous racing, he should come in the race quite well as he doesn't seem to have any struggle getting the form, and be the strongest throughout the 3 weeks.
Green Jersey
Peter Sagan
He's done it 7 times. Although last year he lost out to a very strong Sam Bennett he bounced back this year to win the Giro's maglia ciclamino, aswell as 3 bunch sprint wins in total during the year, and should be coming back with some good confidence with his group around him, Oss, Politt and Postleberger are behind him and should be able to do all the work he needs. As a master in positioning he should never be missing the sprints, he will have competition but luckily for him Sam Bennett won't be a part of it.
Wout van Aert
I know what you'll be thinking, "Rúben he said he's not targetting the jersey" and sure that can be accurate but you have to admit that if there's an ideal rider capable of beating Sagan in his own terrain it's van Aert. Although he reportedly missed some weeks of training in may due to a surgery he's got the national title this weekend showing his form is indeed good already, with full points attributed in the opening two stages, and with Mike Teunissen in the roster van Aert can surely be up there in the classification if he has the intentions to do so, as he should easily be able to pick up points all around the race.
Caleb Ewan
If like last year Sagan's rival may come in the form of a pure sprinter than Caleb Ewan should be his main rival. Ewan's problem is he frequently misses bunch sprints which is not at all ideal for someone targeting the classification, however there are tons of opportunities and he is incredibly fast and should easily take at least a win or two in the race, and unlike all other contenders he should have the whole team backing him on this, having his leadout here aswell in Roger Kluge, Tosh van der Sande and Jasper de Buyst.
Arnaud Démare
In the Giro last year Arnaud Démare had an incredible campaign. Although this year he has struggled to get the same results we know the power is still there, and the French team has came in backing him up seriously as he's having his Guarnieri-Scotson-Konovalovas-Kung leadout with him and it will be very important in these highly contested sprints. With the top competition he's struggled to get those wins this year, however since he's turned to the French continental calendar he has gotten his winning groove back as he's actually taken 7 wins since April.
Outsiders
Obviously the sprints will be filled with lots more riders though, ranging all the way from pure sprinters to punchy sprinters, some will surely be fighting to get some IS points in the opening week but I don't expect much of a fight towards the end of the race. I do love the classic IS fight though, I'm excited to see the likes of Mark Cavendish for example as he's back to the Tour with great legs and should be looking for a comeback win, and in his Deceuninck leadout he may very well be able to do so. For riders like him it's a good year to target the classification, in that list you can include other pure sprinters like Tim Merlier, Mads Pedersen, André Greipel, Cees Bol and Nacer Bouhanni, but obviously these should be more focused on the stage wins.
Those who have better qualities to target such a classification naturally are the like of Michael Matthews who has in the past taken the classification, Sonny Colbrelli who has been having finally a brilliant season with results showcasing his quality, and is coming off fresh of a national title win, also two more riders who have been having a stupendous season who can climb really well in Alex Aranburu and Christophe Laporte. Also although he's not likely targeting the sprints you can never truly ignore the presence of Mathieu van der Poel as he's set to race his first Grand Tour.
⭐ Colbrelli, Matthews, Laporte, Cavendish, Merlier, van der Poel, Pedersen, Bol
Cat.1/2 (Stages 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10, 12, 13, 19, 21)
Finish - 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
Cat.3 (Stages 7, 14, 16)
Finish - 30, 25, 22, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
Cat.4/5/6 (Stages 5, 8, 9, 11, 15, 17, 18, 20)
Finish - 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
Intermediate Sprints
IS - 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
Although there is a big amount of pure bunch sprints the name to beat is Peter Sagan. No-one knows better than him how to win this competition, his climbing qualities, tactical skills and flawless positioning abilities make him a perfect rider for this jersey, and he'll win it again.
Polka Dots Jersey
Regarding the Polka Dots jersey the fight is set to be very open, as always. Unfortunately at the Tour the piling on points from small climbs is essentially worthless unlike the other two GT's, so only the real climbers have a chance of taking the classification. The good side is the amount of climbers that are coming over with no GC ambitions will mean the fight is set to be brilliant, obviously you must include the top climbers like Pogacar, Roglic, Carapaz and Miguel Angel Lopez because the summit finishes will be giving a lot of points that may not be available for breakaways.
There is no point in making a really big text regarding this classification because there are dozens of riders who will have the jersey in mind, some who start with an ambition that changes throughout the race, anyway it's a list too long to name all possibilities. However, with the Olympics in sight and the massive amount of time-trialing kilometers there are some brilliant climbers who will be eyeing stages, getting perfect form and likely some will have the KOM jersey in mind aswell. These include some of the riders who would initially be expected to be fighting for the overall (and may do, although unlikely) like Jakob Fuglsang, Guillaume Martin and Nairo Quintana, some lightweight riders who see in the TT's their GC chances obliterated like Daniel Martin and Esteban Chaves who may be in domestique role for their leaders aswell throughout the race, others building on to the Olympics like Simon Yates, Bauke Mollema and Vincenzo Nibali who came from the Giro, and of course you'd expect the French idols Julian Alaphilippe and Warren Barguil to be eyeing it as they should be targeting the hilly and mountainous stages.
⭐ Roglic, Quintana, Barguil, V.Nibali, I.Izagirre, Bilbao, Teuns, Peters, Konrad, Gaudu, Benoot
Double HC (2nd Ventoux, Col de Portet, Luz Ardiden) - 40, 30, 24, 20, 16, 12, 8, 4
HC - 20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2
1st - 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1
2nd - 5, 3, 2, 1
3rd - 2, 1
4th - 1
The pure climbers will be favoured, Dan Martin has been showing incredible legs this past year and for sure he will be on the hunt again at the Tour with his newly found form, he surely won't have any domestique duties and will be free to go for it, he isn't here just to find form or battle for stages.
White Jersey
This list includes some more riders mentioned beforehand, there is no real battle in here except for does Pogacar take it or have a bad race essentially, if the latter happens there will be some riders eyeing the maillot blanc, most will have domestique duties but in a three week race everything can happen!
⭐ Hamilton, Vingegaard, Paret-Peintre, McNulty, Madouas
I mean it's really no susprise is it, if no big mishaps or abandon occurs Tadej Pogacar is the favourite to take home the white jersey once again.
Route Preview: https://echelons.wixsite.com/website/post/tour-de-france-route-preview-2
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