All cartoons created by @laflammerouge16 and @VroomeChris
Yellow Jersey
For me, the number one contender for the Tour. Even though a crash in the Dauphiné put in doubt his condition you can't say you've seen any kind of weakness from him this year, he started his season in June and he's dominated the stage-racing he's done in France. The last month has been a long debate on how Jumbo will fare with this insane team they're bringing and I would say, probably very very well. The team is scary strong, even if Roglic would struggle Tom Dumoulin looks more than ready to fill in the spot, and with the support of (mainly) George Bennett and Sepp Kuss it's actually quite hard to imagine any scenario where the team is broken apart. They have nuked the run-up to the Tour, now let's see if they can match the expectations or if the team will break under pressure (and possible rival alliances).
Main Domestiques: Tom Dumoulin, George Bennett, Sepp Kuss, Wout van Aert
Also coming from some back problems in the Dauphiné, the young defending champion Egan Bernal is coming with his sights on repeating his win. The run-up to the race wasn't ideal with travel restrictions and little health issues into it, but he hasn't looked back at all and you need the legs in that final week mostly, Egan Bernal has proven to be an incredible stage-racer with no weak spot and he is being supported by a mega strong team which can also be lead by Richard Carapaz, a late addition to the team, the Giro's title holder is also coming from a crash in Pologne, hasn't had an ideal run-up but together these two can cause havoc in any peloton, they both like the big alpine stages so they will be waiting to shine in that final week and come supported by a very strong and experienced team, like they do every year.
Main Domestiques: Pavel Sivakov, Michal Kwiatkowski, Jonathan Castroviejo
Tour debutant Tadej Pogacar has seemed to be in a big uprising in the Dauphiné, you never know what this man is capable of doing, last year in the Vuelta, his Grand Tour debut, he took home three mountain stages and a place in the final podium, and most importantly he seemed to get stronger as the race went on which is notable for a young rider. It's a scary prospect what he can do, the question however is how he'll fare with the absolute best in the world, he has the legs to be there but the Tour is a whole beast so he'll need more than good legs to be in the fight for the win. However, I do put my whole trust in his possibility of finishing on the podium, would bring me no surprise at all.
Main Domestiques: Fabio Aru, Jan Polanc, David de la Cruz, Davide Formolo
Then there's the French hope, last year it seemed to finally be his year, ideal preparation, strong team and strong legs, he was ready to win the Tour and I had faith in him but destiny came in the way and his injury a heartbreak. This year he's back for vengeance though, he had a relative lowkey run-up to the Tour with few altitude training and no Tour de l'Ain, however he was getting good form in the Dauphiné where he was close to the win. He will have a strong team fully focused in him, and all the Jumbo vs Ineos talk could play into his favour. He's one of the strongest climbers in the world and he will have the final time-trial in home roads, he will want to take yellow into Paris and for sure he has some good chances of doing so if he's at his very best, which I think he can!
Main Domestiques: David Gaudu, Sebastian Reichenbach, Rudy Molard
Then there's Miguel Angel Lopez, he's one of the riders who's had one of the slowest build-ups for the race but I must say I'm quite confident in him. Again, he will be underated and finds himself in a perfect Tour for him, his issue is usually his mechanical issues and crashes which unfortunately are more of a matter of luck but if he manages to avoid those I think he can do very very well, he's slowly getting some form and I reckon he will be flying in the Alps, on the opposite side he's one of the riders that I see possibly loosing time in the first week's rough stages. Astana have a strong team to support him so I expect him to come into his own in the mountains, hopefully.
Main Domestiques: Alexey Lutsenko, Ion Izagirre
Emanuel Buchmann is one of the riders with one of the most complex approaches to the Tour. Until some days ago it was unsure his participation, he's had two big stints at altitude in Solden and Livigno, and actually he is back in Livigno after his Dauphiné abandon. He's looked so strong last year, this year he was for sure going to try to go above 4th place however a nasty crash in the Dauphiné put that into doubt, but with no broken bones he's set to race alongside Muhlberger and Schachmann who will be alongside him also after bad crashes in the same week. Before that crash to be fair he was looking really good and he's a rider who's capable of being on form without much racing.
Main Domestiques: Gregor Muhlberger, Felix Grossschartner, Max Schachmann, Lennard Kamna
Then there's Mikel Landa, how strong was he in the Giro last year? With a team fully focused on him and a sole Tour leadership at hand finally I have to say I'm proper excited to see what he can do. His preparation had been good until he suffered from cramps in the final day of the Dauphiné preventing him from being up there, however he is capable of going through a brutal race and a Tour so mountainous is to his liking (also with no TT until the end). He has a very strong support squad behind him, who can target stages but in case of necessity they can with no doubt protect Landa as well as any team.
Main Domestiques: Wout Poels, Pello Bilbao, Damiano Caruso
Nairoman! How good has he looked this year! His performances in France before lockdown were nothing but a great sign that we were seeing the Quintana that we got to know. The Colombian still has his best legs and he also has a team fully focused on him, if it weren't for a car crash blocking a bit his preparation (and giving him issues in the Dauphiné) he would for sure be rated as one of the main contenders. Racing for a PCT team he won't have the support that most of his rivals have, however he does have a team fully focused in him and he is an experienced and strong stage-racer, a magnificent climber and if he manages to avoid problems in his knee and also be consistent he is a great contender for the final podium.
Main Domestiques: Winner Anacona, Waren Barguil
Trek-Segafredo bring in a strong team but one more focused on stages rather than the overall. One thing I will say they will be wishing for crosswind-struck stages because behind him will be a very powerful team behind him, safe to say he will always be well positioned however in the mountains he won't have as much support, questions lie over if Richie Porte can lead the team aswell, they are set to co-lead but it's in the road that we'll see what plan exactly they'll opt for.
Main Domestiques: Kenny Elissonde
Guillaume Martin is leading the Cofidis team, he's a rider with a very steady evolution throughout his career and is having the chance to lead a World Tour team at the Tour, his move to Cofidis has so far proved quite successful including a spot in the Dauphiné podium, he is a pure climber but the Tour is mostly mountains this year so he will be licking his lips, his form is good and he's had no health issues and will be targeting a place in the Top10. His disadvantage is that for sure his team will be looking more for a stage win, which to be fair they can there are some riders who can win from breakaways and Elia Viviani who will be eyeing the sprints.
Main Domestiques: Nicolas Edet, Jesus Herrada
Adam Yates, now he's said he won't be targeting the overall but I have to mention him, he's a super talented climber, he struggles to be consistent that's his issue but he's finished close to the podium at 24 years of age. It may not be his year, he may focus on something else but the team that's came has me suspicious, with Juul-Jensen, Bauer and Bewley they will for sure look to set someone up for a possible overall tilt and I doubt Chaves is up for the task.
Main Domestiques: Esteban Chaves, Mikel Nieve
This is a rider I hadn't thought to mention in this post initially. But in light of recent happenings I absolutely have to mention him, he's done a brilliant race in the Dauphiné which ultimately led him to an overall win. Now, of course this doesn't mean he's a favourite for the Tour, but he was quite impressive and I believe in his capacity for Grand Tours although he's never shown that true ability. His team is a trident leadership in my eyes, Hugh Carthy has quality but doesn't seem to have the form, but the Colombians do, Sergio Higuita and Rigoberto Uran are also Top10 contenders, it's a very open team so we have to see how they play out.
Main Domestiques: Hugh Carthy
Julian Alaphilippe, last year's French crusader, he was never going to win the Tour but damn how he kept us on our toes, he's said to focus on stages and later in the World Championships but knowing him he will for sure try to net a stage win or two in the opening week and that's exactly what happened last year, got yellow and then kept holding onto it and I reckon that's possible again this year. But of course, I'm not saying with this he's a big contender, but a Top10 isn't impossible to think of if he wants, he's been showing good form in the last few weeks.
Main Domestiques: Dries Devenyns
Romain Bardet is in the same situation as Alaphilippe, originally he was hoping to go to the Giro but calendar changes have had him choose the Tour, not only because of that but also because (and I would say mainly) of the amount of stages in the Massif Central, he will have lots of stages he will know well and will want to shine. If he goes for the overall I don't know but he has looked good in the last few weeks and looking sharp in the mountains actually, which hasn't been the case often in the last few years.
Main Domestiques: Pierre Latour, Alexis Vuillermoz, Oliver Naesen
And finally, Movistar. Again I dont know if any of them will target the GC but i reckon they will at least try, Valverde is perhaps outside of the fight for a good overall place I'd say but last year he finished runner-up in the Vuelta, and Marc Soler/Enric Mas will also for sure want to show their best legs since they're all targeting this race.
Main Domestiques: Antonio Pedrero
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Roglic, Bernal
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Pinot, Pogacar, Carapaz
⭐ Sivakov, Higuita, G.Martin, A.Yates
Team support: check. Climbing legs: check. Punchy hills: check: Time trial: check. Sprint: check. Confidence: check.
What troubles is that crash, but in the same stage he crashed he never even looked in distress so I doubt it'll put him undear real stress, and lately they're talking down on his sensations in order to shift pressure. Primoz won the Vuelta in absolute dominant fashion last year, he has everything he needs in order to win the Tour!
Green Jersey
Peter Sagan
Sagan is coming back for his attempt at an eight green jersey in the Tour. He is the main favourite again of course, with his consistency in the sprints and power in the climbs he can virtually gets points anywhere and it won't be no exception this year.
Leadout: Daniel Oss, Lukas Potsleberger
Caleb Ewan
After a successful streak at the Tour last year where he's won three stages, he's back for more and he can very well get them. With his pure sprint dominance and also lightweight structure I reckon he can do well in some hilly stages, and with the team fully focused on stage hunting he can for sure have support to target the jersey.
Leadout: Jasper De Buyst, John Degenkolb, Roger Kluge, Frederik Frison
Sam Bennett
Leading Decuninck is Sam Bennett, he's a strong sprinter with a strong punch and will also be there looking for stage wins, Deceuninck is a team that knows perfectly how to work the finales and he'll also have several riders at his disposal.
Leadout: Michael Morkov, Kasper Asgreen, Zdenek Stybar, Bob Jungels
Wout van Aert
The BEAST! This guy can win this competition for sure, however his issue may rely on his reponsabilities. His team is looking to win the race and he has an important support role that may see him focus on different goals, however lots of hilly stages can present him an opportunity in case he's going to go for green.
Leadout: Amund Jansen
Sonny Colbrelli
He has targeted this jersey in the past, Sonny Colbrelli is a good contender as he's a very complete rider, he can ride the hills and the mountains and will have his freedom. He isn't as fast of a sprinter as the others but if he can be there, go for the intermediate sprints and some breakaways he can do it.
Leadout: Matej Mohoric
Matteo Trentin
Last year he took an impressive stage win, a mega talented that can climb mountains and win hilly stages fits the structure of a rider capable of winning this jersey, he'll be hoping Sagan isn't there in the end, but he also needs to be in the sprints with good presence.
Leadout: Jonas Koch, Michael Schar
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Sagan
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Ewan
⭐ Mezgec, Bol, Kristoff
Flat stage
50,30,20,18,16,14,12,10,8,7,6,5,4,3,2
Hilly stage
30,25,22,19,17,15,13,11,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2
Mountain stage/ITT/Intermediate Sprint
20,17,15,13,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1
Also Sagan should be able to take another green jersey. With Matthews and Démare out of the picture he has competition, but his consistency is unmatched and he knows perfectly how to take this, he'll take it again.
Polka Dots Jersey
I have to say, to start off, that some of the riders mentioned above won't be able to be in the GC fight hence automatically they are part of my list for this classification (Yates and Bardet specially).
Pierre Latour
A strong climber, form doesn't seem to be there as much as he would hope for but he'll have freedom for sure, racing in his home country and with a point to prove as he really is a quality rider.
Pello Bilbao/Damiano Caruso/Wout Poels
Bahrain have a very strong team, Mikel Landa is set to lead it but to be honest Bahrain won't really have to be there to set the pace, ever because there are stronger teams interested in it, so I assume the climbing goats will have freedom and with three strong riders here that can also hunt for stages.
Jesus Herrada/Nicolas Edet
The same scenario here, with Guillaume Martin targeting the overall he may need support, but at the same time there's maybe nothing that Herrada and Edet can do, they're two agressive riders who would have a mega result in a KOM jersey.
David De la Cruz/Davide Formolo
And yeah same scenario here, both looked super good in the Dauphine with de la Cruz taking the KOM and Formolo winning a hard stage, and they may have freedom as the race moves forward.
Ilnur Zakarin
A rider who's almost been completely out of the picture in terms of public eye, Ilnur Zakarin is still a strong rider he just struggles with consistency. But CCC have a strong team over here and he won't have responsabilities, he can relax from the overall and focus on stages aswell as the KOM jersey.
Tiesj Benoot
With no Michael Matthews Sunweb comes in full stage hunting and with no responsabilities of working, Bol in the sprints and the rest of the team to target breakaways and Benoot fits the image of a strong climber who won't be targeting the GC.
Pierre Rolland
Finally I'd put in Pierre Rolland in the list, he's been under the radar for some years but he is on very good form I'm telling you. With Vital Concept managing to finally get a Tour wildcard they will want to seize it, and Rolland comes from a stage and overall win in the Tour de Savoie Mont Blanc and a good performance in the Dauphiné, he has good legs so let's see what he can do with this great opportunity.
⭐ Rolland, Zakarin, Edet, Poels, Nieve, de Gendt, De Marchi, Kamna, Carthy
HC
Normal - 20,15,12,10,8,6,4,2
Stage Finish - 40,30,24,20,16,12,8,4
1st
Normal - 10,8,6,4,2,1
Stage Finish - 20,16,12,8,4,2
2nd
Normal - 5,3,2,1
Stage Finish - 10,6,4,2
3rd
Normal - 2,1
Stage Finish - 4,2
4th
Normal - 1
Stage Finish - 2
As for the Polka dots I'm going with Pello Bilbao. Lot of teammates strong in the team, Landa won't need domestique duties much, Bilbao is a premium climber and he fares very well with the third week.
White Jersey
Egan Bernal & Pavel Sivakov
The big contenders for the White Jersey, Egan Bernal is for sure the man to beat but he also has Sivakov who can in the case of having freedom, target this jersey.
Tadej Pogacar
The big contender is for sure Pogacar, podium contender and Tour debutant he still has several years to get it but he can very well already get it this year.
Daniel Martinez & Sergio Higuita
Of course the EF boys are great candidates for this jersey if they luck out, won't be easy but if they old their own and profit from bad luck of the others than they're in for a shot.
⭐ Martinez, Higuita, Sivakov, Gaudu, Mas
And for the white jersey, going with last year's winner, Bernal also has everything to take this jersey again.
You can find the Route Preview here: https://echelons.wixsite.com/website/post/tour-de-france-route-preview-1
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