Set to happen last year, a sigh of relief is felt as the Olympics Road Race is finally set to take place and likely crown a different type of rider, although such a race is always very uncontrolable and the goal of plenty of riders throughout the season, it's an unique day in the calendar, let's take a look at what's on the menu.
The Route
The essentials: 232 kilometers in distance and ~4350 meters of climbing. It doesn't look like when you look at it but when you see the details you realize how it is actually quite a rough route, specially taking into account how the maximum team size is of only 5 riders, and most have less than that. The route is split into several sections, the first 50Km are essentially flat, we should see a breakaway forming here, it's likely that we'll have some big national teams on the move here as they look to take advantage of the reduced team size and get riders in front, that can be quite valuable later in the race.
You'll have some small ascents later on, early enough for there not to be any attack, late enough for a breakaway to form, so it should only be an addition of fatigue in there. The race will start to take shape properly once the riders reach the base of Mount Fuji.
You may have seen in the Tour of Japan for example a different ascent, a harder one, but obviously the race doesn't end in the mountain so a different climb had to be found, one that allowed the riders to come back down. The Fuji Sanroku ascent summits with 93.5Km to go, it will surely see some moves as not everyone will be waiting for the final ascent. It's not an easy one, 14.5Km at 6%, it's a relatively constant climb, but one that is fit for attacking, not too hard where the big climbers can control easily, but hard enough for differences to be made if there is full intention to blow up the race.
Afterwards there will be a fast descent and the riders will enter the circuit where the race will finish, and they will ride two laps inside the circuit, rolling roads that are good for chasing in the sense that they're wide with long straights, but definitely not pan-flat.
Right after leaving the circuit the riders will go into the big climb. Not the longest, but definitely the one most will be looking forward to, the gradients you can see are quite brutal, this is one for the pure climbers don't be mistaken by the distance, it's a gruelling ascent with just a single switchback, it starts biting at the base and in the first 5Km there is no chance of freewheeling, the riders will be at the maximum from top to bottom. In that final 1.5Km it soothens a little bit but the differences should be made there, it summits with 32Km to go and should be a 22/23-minute effort, leading into a short but fast descent that should cement the gaps.
Attacks shouldn't really succeed in this one, the groups that have resulted from the climb will have to be collaborating to try and get to other riders, and those on the attack have to ride this flat section and small ascent at full speed to make sure they keep their differences, it summits with 21.5Km to go.
The descent is a bit more technical, very fast at the start, but a constant in this race is that the roads are constantly wide, so the only risks of crashing come from riders taking insane risks.
If you can ignore these magnificent arrows you will see that the finale is, like in the World Championships last year, inside a racing track. Smooth but constant up-and-down gradients, long turns, tons of changes in direction (quite visible looking at the map). My only observation is that a solo move will have real trouble to succeed, the roads are never ideal for a rider to fly away from a group, the final straight is also long, and a game of cat-and-mouse may see some riders join the front.
The Weather
Unlike the rumours it won't be that hot during the race, around 25º degrees maximum although the humidity can and surely will make a difference, giving also different conditions to mostly Europe-based riders. There are chances of cloudy skies and rain, the descents won't be technical but this can change things up quite a lot, specially as there is no opportunity to have a less-than-perfect day. As for the wind, it won't be very noticeable, a slight breeze from the southeast which should make for a tailwind on both main climbs, Kagosaka should be covered, and inside the final circuit it should also be covered, in the finishing straight at least.
So who chases?
Tough call, the Olympics have very different team sizes, and most teams are built up completely of riders from different teams who aren't used to race with each other and may not want to sacrifice their results for riders of another team (although frequently this challenge is overcome). Slovenia is the only team that has good reason to chase all day long, they have only Polanc and Tratnik to do so but they will bury themselves to keep everything tight and as compacted as possible into the big climbs. Tadej Pogacar is perhaps the big favourite taking into account how well he rode in the Tour, his form was incredible throughout the whole race and he's a whole package, with a top-notch sprint adding to his beastful climbing capacity, and he'll have Primoz Roglic as a joker, unsure of what he'll be able to do after abandoning the Tour with an injury just a few weeks ago. Others that could help? That's a really hard question to put.
Most teams come full of contenders, with no-ne specific to work, and should focus on getting riders in front instead of working. Spain is the only team I see maybe willingly collaborating, Alejandro Valverde showed good form during the Tour and a race like this is his speciality, steep ascent, long kilometers and warm weather are ideal for him, the team has the Izagirres, Fraile and Herrada, but I'm sure one of the latter two could eventually work in order to control the race, as Valverde on his best days still represents a big threat. Additionally maybe Belgium could do it because Greg van Avermaet hasn't shown form anywhere similar to his 2016 campaign, Belgium have Mauri Vansevenant and Tiesj Benoot who could go on the attack early on but with both Remco Evenepoel and Wout van Aert on the start the Belgians may have to go to work to keep their chances alive if a threatening group finds itself in front.
Climbers to threaten
Many national teams won't have the pressure to chase, their job is to create chaos, send riders to the front and always take advantage of their status as outsiders (even though plenty have enough quality to win this race). You will have major climbers in plenty countries, for a starters those who will have to attack because they won't - in a normal scenario - have the sprint to take a win:
Equador: Richard Carapaz
Russia: Alexander Vlasov & Pavel Sivakov
Ireland: Daniel Martin
Denmark: Jakob Fuglsang
Canada: Michael Woods
Poland: Rafal Majka
New Zealand: George Bennett
Norway: Tobias Foss
Switzerland: Gino Mader
France: David Gaudu & Guillaume Martin
From these riders, and teams, expect no early work, no collaborations before Mikuni, just offensive racing, because that is how they can win this race. They will have to be cold, smart and very explosive, there is a massive amount of quality in these national teams and they are the ones who will be mixing in the most alongside the likes of the men to beat, aswell as some more who have riders who can indeed sprint and would be interested in working in case they find themselves in a good position after the big climbs:
Great Britain has Geraint Thomas who can do it, but likely the chances of the team will rely on Adam Yates who has a perfect climb for his liking, Simon Yates aswell but it's unsure what form he'll bring after crashing out of the Tour. Italy has Giulio Ciccone who can do it, Vincenzo Nibali is coming in after preparing in the Tour and Damiano Caruso come in as a set of wildcards who should like the roughness of the race, you have the Netherlands who have Wilco Kelderman in a threatening position, Tom Dumoulin and Bauke Mollema as dangerous riders for early attacks, Colombia who have Esteban Chaves, Nairo Quintana and Rigoberto Uran as a set of strong pure climbers, Sergio Higuita should be the main card though and has a very strong sprint so he needs to be attacked aswell, and then you have some wildcards like João Almeida, Patrick Konrad and Alexey Lutsenko who are also known to have a strong sprint in reduced groups and can be a problem for the main contenders aswell.
What about the puncheurs?
Yes it so happens that puncheurs aren't just riders who can fly up short hills, although it is their speciality, you have some who can do longer climbs really well, specially when it's anaerobic efforts such as what they'll find here. The likes of Max Schachmann and Michal Kwiatkowski are riders who should be able to thrive in such a route and always have a strong sprint which will make them threats towards the end, and they won't have spotlight coming in meaning they can fly under the radar, and the same can be said about riders like Italy's Alberto Bettiol and Gianni Moscon who have been very talked of this week and for good reason, Marc Hirschi who came into form during the Tour and seems to be in a level strong enough to be a factor in the race, and the likes of Kasper Asgreen and Dylan van Baarle who are rouleurs but can definitely survive a route like this too, and can specially be threats if they find themselves in a breakaway. Remember endurance is very important in a day like this, and who better than the classics specialists in that field?
Tour legs. Yay or nay?
Classica San Sebastian is usually the race where this is brought up. This year though it's a much bigger stage for that theory to be tested, but it was also an unusual Tour, one more brutal then the normal, and where a lot of GC riders (not only, of course) have gotten a true beating, and may not have at all the same legs here in Tokyo. In Olympic year it's always normal to see riders targeting the Giro and then using the Tour to gain back that form, that was the case with some riders. Usually racing the Tour gets the riders in such form that they thrive in a one-day race afterwards, but from my point of view not many will benefit from Tour legs this year. I would say Tadej Pogacar and Richard Carapaz will have them, they were flying all the way to the finish in Paris in the climbs, and as they didn't have a single night in Paris to party they should be ready to get back into this brutal piece of racing, although maybe the accomplishment will have made their motivation fade a bit.
But there are other riders who seemed to come out of the Tour fresh, which definitely wasn't an easy task, but the Tour has done wonders for some like Wout van Aert who clearly was on the rise for the whole race and has his peak form at the moment, like Dan Martin who was absent for most of the race but showed really good climbing power in the final week, others like Wilco Kelderman, Rafal Majka and Patrick Konrad also came out of the race with really good form and can really profit from their presence there.
And remember this, there will be no team radios tomorrow, so the tactics and confusion can easily thrive...
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#54 Michael Schar - Michael you have a big engine and a ton of experience, it is not by chance that you were selected, we have two guys who can go onto fighting for the top places and you will be covering them, making sure they stay safe, hidrated, well fed, this is an unique race and you gotta be on top of them to make sure they make no rookie mistakes, there is no space for that! Gino has been having a really good season, and Marc was coming into form in the Tour, job is to leave them in the final climb well positioned, if you manage to get there, as for Stefan he has the freedom to go on the attack early, maybe join a wild move that could endanger the race.
#47 Max Schachmann - This is a big day Max, you have a massive joker card to play and I'll tell you this, getting a medal, maybe gold, is definitely possible. The race will be long, it suits you, all climbs will be nice for you except for Mikuni, it's quite brutal but you know how to pace well, it will put you to the absolute limit but what matters is coming out of it within 30 seconds or so of the fastest climbers, and ideally with at least another rider, if you're solo over Mikuni slow down in the final meters to make sure you have company, you won't get anywhere alone. Save all your energy for that climb, Nikias will keep you protected throughout the day, Simon will try to get in a breakaway, if he can't he'll help you too, and Emanuel will also be around, his form has developed well during the Tour and he can play a role in the race aswell as he loves steep climbs, assuming there will be attacks in Fuji he will have the role to cover them, he has 0 chance to win in a sprint but you're different, you do have a good chance. Don't work during the day, don't be too present, you haven't raced this month and the climbers will all be looking at each other (and going against van Aert) so you take advantage of that and go under the radar, I expect you to have done some rigid training these last few weeks and are in the form of your life.
#40 Luke Durbridge - Won't be an easy job Luke but look ahead, very few riders manage to get selected for this race and you should be proud! We have only Lucas and Richie to fight for results, I'm not sure what they can do as Lucas crashed out of the Tour and Richie seemed to be burning down in the race, you make sure you help them and get bottles whilst you can, and then hope they can look their best and fight for a place in the Top10.
Prediction Time
⭐ Almeida, Woods, S.Yates, Moscon, Ciccone, Higuita, Gaudu, Lutsenko, Kwiatkowski, D.Martin, Vlasov, Konrad, Fuglsang, G.Bennett, Kelderman
Tadej Pogacar is my pick for this one. It's going to be chaotic, it's going to be brutal, in the middle of so much uncertainty sometimes the best is to just think simple. Who has the best combination of a climber, sprinter and form? Exactly. Slovenia has 2 riders who will sacrifice themselves to control the race, and Roglic will likely cover many moves alongside Pogacar, if he shows the legs he did in the Tour he should be able to control and attack the race like no-one else!
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