It's time to wrap off the road side of the men's Olympics campaign, the individual time-trial takes place this wednesday and it is a proper route set to take every rider to the limit, in a race that's based once again around the Fuji racing circuit.
The Route
But as you can see it's far from a flat time-trial, you can even say it's not one for the specialists. It is somewhat true, it will consist of two laps of 22 kilometers which in total consist of ~750 meters of climbing and the route is similar to that of the finale of the road race.
But looking at streetview you realize that it is similar in more than one way, although the route is quite hilly you find the roads are wide at all times and very straightforward, meaning constant grinding efforts in the ascents, and very fast descents where the speeds will be very high. Pacing will also be crucial, and I believe every rider will have a slightly different aproach to the circuit, as some will look to take advantage of their speciality be it going up or down, others will be focusing on places to take a small rest, and all will be considering how much they should save for the final 6.5Km which will be quite hard and decisive in this time-trial. Coaches will be working overnight in order to figure out the best strategy.
The Weather
The wind will be rising throughout the afternoon from the southwest with modest intensity, but it shouldn't make much of a difference since the route consists of a couple of laps in a very twisty route. As for the rain it is also expected, but throughout the whole afternoon with small intensity, I believe rain showers will happen but no knowing when exactly.
The Favourites
There is no magic ball for this time-trial, what you need are some things done perfectly:
Form;
Pacing strategy;
Very strong sensations.
As it was the case with the Road Races (in that case with the radios), this time-trial really isn't representative of the normal pattern we have throughout the year. What we have here is an almost 1-hour effort that features several rolling climbs, fast descents, meaningful wind (mostly crosswind) and possible rain. It will be chaotic for sure, the time-trial I find that is most similar to it is the Dauphiné one where Lutsenko won, where clearly pacing strategy was more important than the rider's actually time-trialing ability. That's what we'll see tomorrow, the results may be very varied exactly because no-one knows how to pace this one perfectly, hence the feeling in the day and form will be incredibly important because the riders will have to go to the limit several times and the final kilometers will be suffocating.
The most important question is, does it suit the lightweight time-trialists better or not? Well it's a tough one, the descents they'll find aren't technical at all so the heavyweight guys will have roads perfect for them where they'll easily have advantage, but when you see the climbs they aren't that steep, they can definitely be done in the aero bars and expecting an average of just under 50Km/h (my estimate) I still think the purists will have an advantage, but more specifically those who can usually climb really well.
In the non-climber (yes I know some climb really well, but you know what I mean!) section you have a big representation from riders like Wout van Aert and Alberto Bettiol who looked brilliant in the road race, adding to other riders like Rohan Dennis, Patrick Bevin, Nelson Oliveira and Stefan de Bod as other riders who are known to have quite some confort in the uphill sections, whilst in the more purist section you have the big Italian Filippo Ganna headlining it, haven't heard anything public from him but he's been preparing for this time-trial in Italy, it's not the best route for him neither the best distance but I think we can all agree that he's the best time-trialist in the current peloton, and always a threat even in hilly ones. Behind him you find other riders like Kasper Asgreen and Stefan Kung who come straight from the Tour and Remi Cavagna who has taken less racing this July, as other threats to the medals and possibly more if they have great legs on the day.
On the other side you have the climbers/puncheurs who can time-trial with the best, where you have an equally interesting list. I've mentioned Alexey Lutsenko who has been a wildcard but here I wouldn't expect him as much to surprise, however I do firmly believe a big surprise can pop from a rider like him or similar, like Max Schachmann, Rigoberto Uran or Tobias Foss who with the right strategy can find themselves in the medals.
These riders will hope the uphill sections suffocate the purists and burn them off, and will try to use those sections to make their differences and it includes brutally talented riders like Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic who disapointed in the road race but you never know if with a secondary thought in this race, you could say the same from Geraint Thomas although he should be a step below in terms of form, although you never know as Ineos have gathered several gold medals until today, you have riders like Tom Dumoulin and João Almeida who have been riding under the radar but are exactly the kind of rider who should thrive from a long and hilly time-trial as they have massive diesel engines, but the ultimate wildcard should be Brandon McNulty who was - to me - the surprise of the road race and almost smelled the gold medal, he should be more suited to the time-trial route which suits him perfectly, and seeing how well he adapted to the conditions this weekend he should also be thriving in the individual race.
Prediction Time
⭐ Roglic, Dumoulin, Bettiol, Cavagna, Kung, Bettiol, Dennis, Foss
To no surprise my favourite is Wout van Aert, his current form is incredible, he looked to me like the strongest rider in the road race but here there will be an individual challenge, where he will take advantage of wide spectrum of talents to turn it into Olympic gold.
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